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11-30-2016, 11:10 AM | #1 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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Breeder's Cup skews championship status
With SO MUCH Importance placed on a single day, or single race, the Breeder's CUp has made t-bred championships a hollow remnant of what they once were.
In the system before the Breeder's Cup (and for about the first 10 years of its existence), a horse HAD to be a champion, or at least top of his particular heap, for at least 9 to 10 months of the calendar year NOT one day. You can only discover true championship status by REPEAT performances against all comers, at different distances over different courses carrying varying weights and on fast and sloppy surfaces. The Breeder's Cup has elevated SAMPLE ERROR to a new standard. The rest of the year becomes subservient to a single effort: HOGWASH
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Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
11-30-2016, 01:13 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Superbowl
Hey Tim
Its kind of similar to the flaw of the Superbowl The game is a "event" and its 1 game winner take all.Everybody loves the winner and shortly afterwards hardly anyone remembers the loser, and after a few months more than half the people who watched the "event" can not even name the winner. The real champs are the winners of their conferences, The AFC and NFC The Conference championship is between 1 of 6 division and wildcard teams Every conference champion has to win at least 2 playoff games and in general the 12 playoff teams have to win about 10 or 11 or more of 16 games. The thing about the BC, the races a wide open and the mutuals are crazy compared to day to day prices, The advertisers and TV love the event The voting for Horse of the Year is what counts GS Bill |
11-30-2016, 04:13 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Full fields of 14 mean good prices and the horse has to be something just to get in the race as the entry and starting fees are huge. Foreign horses spend at least $30,000 just to ship here.
The races represent the best 14 horses for the conditions on that particular day just the same as any other day. Having a temperature and having to scratch doesn't count just as it doesn't throughout the year. We do have watered down sports where so many wild card or playoff teams get to qualify so owners and the league can make money. The BC races have their standards to get in much like the Derby with the highest earners etc. It is what it is!!! Hell trainers and owners can't even decide which race to enter and cross enter 2 or 3 races. We as handicappers can decide and have the tools to know a horses best distance and surface better than the connections. Each race is a challenge as it is everyday, some are more risky than others. It's up the player to choose their spots, manage their money just like it is everyday. For me the BC is the ultimate cerebral challenge and I find it much the same as everyday racing. Mitch44 |
12-01-2016, 11:16 AM | #4 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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Personal experience with some of the best players I know showed a major tendency to WATCH and maybe bet ONE contest here and there. There are too many contenders, top to bottom, unless you have an enormous bankroll and can cover deep.
A group of fellows were in our press box on Breeder's Cup day the past three years. Capable players too. None walked out winners. They learned, I hope, what I did many moons ago, it is a day to watch not wager. Most of the mixed fields (Euro and elsewhere) cannot be compared one on one to the US contingent. I have been privy to the British based Time Form evaluations for several years via a bookie friend, and THEY were as biased to the racing across the pond as ours was locally. Actually only a single horse they had ranked high hit the board this last go round. TOO many variables for long term parimutuel profits.
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Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
12-01-2016, 11:43 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I find no problem with the Euro's as I can get a handle on them. There are ways to do this such as class ratings, also Dubai now has Trakus info available on its races and I understand Ireland will be going to this for 2017. Also comparison handicapping has served me well along with some of my own research.
One has to adapt their approach to the problem at hand or situation at hand. I.e. I don't play Maiden races the same as I do other races, particularity FTS. Bill V. and Bill Lyster have a great thread on these types of races and were discussed in detail with numerous nuggets in another thread titled "maiden workout information." You have to use what you have. Most handicappers don't realize that a very poor factor is just as good as a good % factor to eliminate contenders or competition. Yes think about that and read it again. Variables occur every day in this game, such as will this class of the field runner like and run on the track he is shipping into today? Ready for a top notch effort off this layoff? etc. Good handicapping, Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 12-01-2016 at 11:53 AM. |
12-01-2016, 12:45 PM | #6 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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If you trust Trakus you are POORLY INFORMED as to its accuracy. It is crap and many venues are just about to show it out the door.
I compare PHOTOGRAPHICALLY calculated beaten lenghts to the Trakus data and complete PLACINGS are often two places OUT. Beaten lenghts are off the further back horses are from the winner. Times can vary from 2 independent clockers (usually in the first parts of races) by 2 seconds and MORE. Just peruse the internet to find all the massive complaint from people who have timed the replays and then compared the discovered fractions to what they were told. NOT even close, particularly on the grass. If you go to their OWN website, they say THIS IS NOT A TIMING SYSTEM and as far as a placing system, it is really FLAWED.
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Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." Last edited by Tim Y; 12-01-2016 at 12:47 PM. |
12-01-2016, 03:12 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I'm a firm believer in what the Doc and Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw taught and expressed at seminars which was ""use what you have" Everything has its flaws. PERIOD!!!!
I'm not a profound user of Trakus and never said that. However I did use it to eliminate a Dubai winning 2 yr. old that won a race the same day as Cailf. Chrome. The comparison Hcp. allowed me to get a fix on the horse (by deducing beaten lengths for the age difference and time of the year and comparing the distance of the 2 yr. old to the same distance of internal fractions of Chrome). Not only did I toss him for the Ky.Derby but also for another Triple Crown race. Yea I know projecting is dangerous but you can't argue with success. We also project with RDSS for distances and cutbacks in distances. I'm well aware of the flawed timing of races in this game and I'm not naïve. Actually considering the number of races ran this is minimal and a acceptable part of the game. Many missed timed races are a result of a legit reasoning. Once again one must use what we have. Sartin has know this for years along with beaten lengths being inaccurate however it has had little effect on success. Mistakes and not following consistent procedures are the real killers to success. One can argue or find flaws with anything and if they truly believe it than why even play the game. Myself this stuff has no effect on my game and I'm using the same stuff that many others reply on for information whether time, beaten lengths etc. I'm on an even playing field with everyone else except what I develop on my own etc. For anyone that's overly concerned with this stuff they should quit because psychology it'll have an detrimental effect on their game. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 12-01-2016 at 03:22 PM. |
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