Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Races of Interest
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-30-2019, 08:30 PM   #11
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Recap

Hi Mitch

Concratrats on a great exact win,


Hello to all Pace and Cap friends
Please, I am just trying to keep some order into each forum

Each forum has a title and instructions on what the theme should be,

This area is labeled and suggested "Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems "
Posting winning tickets is encouraging and appreciated ,
But without any other " meat and potatoes " these type posting belong in the selection forum
Thank you for helping Ted and myself out

I was wondering if anyone made a nice score, and cares to give a recap of the Florida Derby
I was unable to see it ,
Peace and thank you
Bill
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2019, 10:31 PM   #12
shoeless
Grade 1
 
shoeless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,148
Just a difference in opinion no hard feelings on this end
shoeless is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2019, 09:08 AM   #13
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
This definitely was a race of interest with a purse of 2.5 million$$. After talking on the phone with LT1 I decided to put $2 on a couple of our American horses and cheer then on. We do have some excellent sprinters. Upon logging in I only had 20 minutes till post time and began perusing the PP. I was surprised that even our US horses records were not shown and had similar PP's as the foreign horses.

No one took the bait and asked about my deductive reasoning. So here it is:

US horse Promises Fulfilled I threw out for declining form and not the same horse.(out of $$ here)

XY Jet I was quite familiar with as a winner at TAM,GP and lost this race by a nose last year. Could run over various courses, race over track and experience shipping etc. Early horse with catch me if you can and forces others to burn out chasing.

Imperial Hint another top US sprinter who is more of a presser and the race sets up for his style, another top consistent sprinter.

That left the foreign horses: several races each of these showed final times over the Meyden courses to be very slow in the 1:11 clocking range, I thought perhaps the track was slow because despite being in the desert this track is much faster. Even at the old Calder our top sprinters ran in the 1:10's (about 12 lg's slower). This track wasn't that slow that many different days. Out with all those horses that had multiple slow races over Meyden as slow horses.

This left two other foreign entries,the 8 & 9 who raced in Japan and Hong Kong. They had very respectable faster times than all the other slow horses from local racing. I'm aware Hong Kong has very good racing with huge purses that attract top horses from around the world. These two were competitors.

The locals bet their horses heavily and the two other foreign horses went off at overly decent odds. The 9(placed) went off at around 45 to 1. From a match up point if XY Jet faltered Imperial Hint figured to win both from the match up and run style, the set up was perfect for him.



I keyed the 8 & 9 for place and also for the show with the top two American horses. I only had about 20 minutes at the start so had to rush my bets to get them in. Consequently I left the 9 out of my Tri bet. A $216 mistake, well not really a mistake just a circumstance that wasn't controllable under the circumstances.



Several Sartin concepts got me there: Bradshaw's "you must use what you have" concept, pace,match up of race, running styles and their effect, knowledge of tracks and profiles, know your horses (review of PP's).

While I stated the other day I don't use a track profile and get away with it because I circumvent it and have knowledge of many tracks just from playing them. LT1 and I talked about this on the phone. Local knowledge helps tremendously. I would recommend beginners keep a model and trk. profile as it take time to acquire knowledge. Cheaper for beginners to keep the profile.

That my friends was my deductive reasoning behind a good score. Mind reading if you will of the Monkey's brain at work to put his darts on the correct horse and bulls eye. One has to love when a plan comes together or as the "Hat" would say "the racing Gods were with me."

Mitch

Last edited by Mitch44; 03-31-2019 at 09:16 AM.
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2019, 09:56 AM   #14
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
recap

Thanks Mitch

That's what I am talking about.

Congrats on a super win and thanks for the detail

Bill
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2019, 12:17 PM   #15
lone speed
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
Mitch

Thanks your race insights evaluation- we can always learn from these commentaries....

comments like "I had my biggest score on such and such"
lone speed is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2019, 04:07 PM   #16
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
shoeless:


In reference to post 12 of this thread I agree just a difference of opinion and also no hard feelings on my end either. Glad we could work this out through a PM and move on to more important things like winning.


We are just one spec of sand in this world and life is even smaller,enjoy and relish the time here.This is all trivial to the big picture.

Wishing success at this tough game,


Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2019, 04:54 PM   #17
shoeless
Grade 1
 
shoeless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,148
Mitch

You too

Jeff
shoeless is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
8 Month Matchup Thread (Re-posted) Bill Lyster Matchup Discussion 4 05-01-2015 05:02 PM
Matching for PROFIT - The "Mind's Eye" and WINNING pattern recognition RichieP Matchup Discussion 7 10-08-2010 08:36 PM
Sartin Followup study RichieP General Discussion 20 12-03-2009 09:08 AM
The Match-Up After Six Months mamojica Matchup Discussion 4 10-04-2009 10:53 PM
How looking back on lost races can mess with our “intuition” – Part II mamojica Matchup Discussion 5 06-01-2009 12:43 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:29 AM.