The Power of the matchup; Queens Plate day

[khannamark]

I want to point out an interesting subplot on Queens Plate day that occurred in the 9th race a nondescript State bred NW2 Allowance race that shows the influence of the matchup( I think). Unfortunately I have not yet learned the process for posting the PPs of the race here, so I hope some of you have them accessible.
As expected the race was was full of reluctant winners with good recent form being displayed by the inside horses (Psychotherapy, Egggbert Jester, Thatboathassailed, Denailer and Guest Appearing). However a quick look at the PP's made it clear that there that there was no obvious frontrunner . Also, it became clear that the front runner had a great chance to win the race; the route runners in the field were reluctant to win and the sprinters were going to try to close from off the pace. The pace horse, Guest appearing had wired at a route a year and 7 races ago, but his top line showed a second place finish running from 5th, and you would expect his connections to repeat that style.Also he had been outbroken by Eggbert Jester in his last race.
In considering the front end I chose Eggbert Jester over Thatboathassailed because he had outbroken the pace horse in his top line and had a sprint win from a close up third.
Sitting in post 11 was a steed called Rush Seats, who looked to be woefully out of form having lost his last two races by 26 and 11 lengths. I briefly considered him because he was an early route horse but eliminated him because a) he could not outbreak the sprinters on the inside, and b) he looked to be unfit.
Well, we all know what happened . The sprinters came out of the gate and took back, while RushSeats blasted out of the gate to a clear lead and won at 24/1.
You might wonder; was the horse juiced? I think a more relevant fact was the name of the trainer
Pat Parente; an expert at the Matchup.
The Hat would be proud.

[lone speed]

I did not look at this race beforehand....but I have attached a drf pp for the day... and result charts


Using the lines highlighted in race #9....I ended up with Thatboathassailed as my top pick which ran last in this race....

this does not count for no marbles but using the the recent decent route line for Rush Seats, he owned a huge advantage at the first call over this field...Rush Seats also owns a dominant line from the turf race at a mile and 1/16th.... turf lines do carry over at the polytrack at Woodbine...this is actually the best line over the field if you adjust for age development adjustment....

Just a side note, if we focus on wondering if the horse was juiced, then why do we play this game....it will happen, but it behooves us to focus on the match-up at hand and look for optimal wagering opportunities..That boathassailed seem to have bounced off the layoff from the sprint race....

good skills

[khannamark]

Thanks Lone Speed for posting the PP's and analyzing the race.
As a side note, my reference to "juicing" was not serious. Think of it as poetic licence to make a point.