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Old 01-03-2022, 06:22 PM   #1
rdiam
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The Holy Grail

Here is the Holy Grail for winning at the races:

If you can identify this horse's characteristic, you could have achieved a 30% win rate and a 47% ROI in 2021...

Here is the secret: all you have to do is identify which horse will be the leader at the first fraction (2f in sprint, 4f in route)...

Unfortunately, most of us can't bet after the race has started, so you will have to use other skills to try to figure out the first fraction leader.

But figure this out, and you will have unlocked the Holy Grail.

Richard
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Old 01-04-2022, 12:35 AM   #2
ranchwest
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Richard,

What have you learned that you have found useful in pursuit of the Holy Grail?
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Old 01-04-2022, 11:50 AM   #3
dlivery
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Wink Always look left...

Quote:
Originally Posted by rdiam View Post
Here is the Holy Grail for winning at the races:

If you can identify this horse's characteristic, you could have achieved a 30% win rate and a 47% ROI in 2021...

Here is the secret: all you have to do is identify which horse will be the leader at the first fraction (2f in sprint, 4f in route)...

Unfortunately, most of us can't bet after the race has started, so you will have to use other skills to try to figure out the first fraction leader.

But figure this out, and you will have unlocked the Holy Grail.

Richard
As from Jim Bradshaw The race starts when the Gate Pop's.
Look left in the PP's
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Old 01-04-2022, 02:45 PM   #4
rdiam
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How to find the Holy Grail:

There are 2 components in the search for the Holy Grail:

1. Running Style

2. Position at the 1/4 and 1/2 mile call

When the running style aligns with the horse's likely position, and that position is likely to be on the lead, you have found your bet.

Richard
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Old 01-04-2022, 03:28 PM   #5
ranchwest
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Thanks, Richard. I think you have triggered some thoughts. I appreciate it.
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Old 01-04-2022, 04:05 PM   #6
raceman5
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Race

Be cool if someone could post up a winning race that fits Richards's criteria. Just food for thought. Would be an interesting study.

Bob
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Old 01-04-2022, 09:54 PM   #7
cjmat
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Great post

fantabulous
thank you

cj
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Old 01-07-2022, 03:12 PM   #8
Tim Y
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rational betting ONLY when you have an advantage IS the HOLY GRAIL

I know literally dozens and dozens of very gooh handicappers who, after many years NEVER caught on to this FUNDAMENTAL THING.

Why are you playing the game if it is to only accomplish HALF the goals?
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Old 01-08-2022, 11:22 AM   #9
ranchwest
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Has anyone ever looked into the mean and variance of running styles?
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Old 01-09-2022, 03:13 PM   #10
DanBoals
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim Y View Post
rational betting ONLY when you have an advantage IS the HOLY GRAIL

I know literally dozens and dozens of very gooh handicappers who, after many years NEVER caught on to this FUNDAMENTAL THING.
Wow. This is so true.

I think the only way you can know where you have an advantage is keeping records and that is something that is difficult for many of us to do over the long run. On dozens of occasions, I have created spreadsheets with 200+ recent races to find out where I am in my handicapping, but invariably the huge time commitment this takes leads me to eventually abandon the effort.

The reason this requires so much time is simple, by the time you transfer the data from your handicapping program to the spreadsheet, then put in the race type and data, then put in the results, even if you are fast typist like myself, you have spent longer recording the bets and results than on handicapping the race itself.

What would be wonderful for me, is if my software could take my handicapping results, based on my paceline selection, then add the race data that the software already has, and combine those with the results from trackmaster or other web source and create a printout or table that I could use to analyze my advantage over certain tracks and distances and surfaces.
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