Yellow Manual Follow Up - Pace and Cap

Ryan.p.coli · 06-10-2014, 03:55 PM

Hi All,

This is my first post! I am a relatively new Sartin Methodology student. I have been devouring Sartin information recently. I have finished both Doc Sartin's and Tom Brohamers books. I have started to move onto the manuals... reading the Vegas March 1987 and Yellow manuals last night.

My question is regarding a line I read in the yellow manual.

In the portion discussing selecting a paceline, there was a comment that confused me. It goes something like this:

"You may have heard this before, but When a horse has a 2nd or even 3rd place finish in it's last race and it finished less than 2 lengths behind the winner, it is stronger than a win.... unless the win was by 3.75 lengths or more."

Unfortunately, I had not actually heard that before... and I wanted to know WHY.

In visualizing a race, I could see this being true if a sustained pace horse closed effectively against a front runner with a solid 3rd fraction (and just falling short)... but aside from specific instances, I'm not sure I understand.

Any insight yll can provide would be very much appreciated.

Thanks!

Bill V. · 06-10-2014, 05:35 PM

I think if I recall it has something to do with a horse hitting its peak in its form cycle. A horse that wins may have peaked and now is facing harder competition if it has been moved up in class.

A horse that finishes close may have something left and does not have to move up in class

Bill

Ryan.p.coli · 06-10-2014, 05:46 PM

That does in fact make sense... Thank you Bill

MikeB · 06-11-2014, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ryan.p.coli

"You may have heard this before, but When a horse has a 2nd or even 3rd place finish in it's last race and it finished less than 2 lengths behind the winner, it is stronger than a win.... unless the win was by 3.75 lengths or more."

I would qualify that by saying it is a strong race if the place or show finish is an improvement over the horse's previous race. It is also strong if the horse either closed in the stretch or had the lead and tired. As long as that race is better than the one before it, it is a good sign that the horse is coming into top form.

CEW · 07-11-2014, 08:11 AM

Ryan - with regard to your question on a horse finishing up close and possibly being a stronger indicator than a win......see if you can get some articles on the Tandem concept. There has been a lot written about the Tandem and its a powerful way to look at things. In case you haven't run across it yet, the basic definition is when you have 2 or more horses going against each other today who ran against each other before (preferably in their most recent race). The winner doesn't necessarily have to be among the tandem horses.

The statement you read may not have been specifically about the tandem, but it applies in races quite often.

The essence of the Tandem is that repeat winners do so at a far lesser degree when running against one or more horses they ran against last time. So with the horses who finished within, say, 5 lengths of the winner - we'll either go back for a better or line or change his final beaten lengths to match the best tandem horse finish (which is an artificial way to elevate the slower horse). The prices you will get doing this can be tremendous.

There's more to it than what I've written, but you can get to it in due time.

I enjoyed your comment that you read something that was confusing in the Yellow Manual. That is the understatement of all time (!). I'm happy to read that people are still studying that manual. The first time I read it, I said to myself 'either this guy is this unorganized, or he is purposely writing it in an unorganized way'. Then when I went to my first seminar, Howard stated that he wrote that manual the way he did on purpose and that if he had written it in a step by step fashion, people would read it, go out and lose 5 races, then throw it in the trash.

Best of luck ! Chuck

atkinsrr · 07-11-2014, 09:43 AM

The Tandem concept is explained in follow up #47 pp 19-20...with the type of horses that I follow..mostly, stakes horses and turf racing I run into a lot of tandem races...they are another helpful piece of the puzzle....

Ryan.p.coli · 07-11-2014, 02:50 PM

Gentlemen,

Thank you for the kind words and the response.

I agree wholeheartedly that the yellow manual was somewhat ambiguous. I had the same thought that "Whoever wrote this was disorganized." I see now that it was purposely ambiguous.

When I wrote that comment originally, I was just starting my dive into the Sartin Methodology. Over the last month, I have poured countless hours into learning all the nuances for The Sartin Method, tools, and the Matchup principals.

My question was more or less answered in the tandem manual (which is also somewhat ambiguous).

The key to understanding the entire thing, is indeed the Matchup. Since I've spent time learning the matchup (here at PaceandCap), things have started to come full circle for me.

I still have a long ways to go, but I'm in significantly better shape with this concept than when I started.

Thanks again.

Ryan

CEW · 07-12-2014, 03:17 PM

Ryan - more power to you on your approach. Stay at it. Its a journey, but you'll be looking at races from a perspective that few have, because of the dedication it takes. When you start knocking down race after race you'll know its becoming part of you. Remember 2 horse betting - its a big part of the method and that's part of how we hit the big mutuels!

Regards, Chuck

06-10-2014, 03:55 PM	#1
Ryan.p.coli Grade 1 Join Date: May 2014 Location: Chicago Posts: 121	Yellow Manual Follow Up Hi All, This is my first post! I am a relatively new Sartin Methodology student. I have been devouring Sartin information recently. I have finished both Doc Sartin's and Tom Brohamers books. I have started to move onto the manuals... reading the Vegas March 1987 and Yellow manuals last night. My question is regarding a line I read in the yellow manual. In the portion discussing selecting a paceline, there was a comment that confused me. It goes something like this: "You may have heard this before, but When a horse has a 2nd or even 3rd place finish in it's last race and it finished less than 2 lengths behind the winner, it is stronger than a win.... unless the win was by 3.75 lengths or more." Unfortunately, I had not actually heard that before... and I wanted to know WHY. In visualizing a race, I could see this being true if a sustained pace horse closed effectively against a front runner with a solid 3rd fraction (and just falling short)... but aside from specific instances, I'm not sure I understand. Any insight yll can provide would be very much appreciated. Thanks!

06-10-2014, 05:35 PM	#2
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Form I think if I recall it has something to do with a horse hitting its peak in its form cycle. A horse that wins may have peaked and now is facing harder competition if it has been moved up in class. A horse that finishes close may have something left and does not have to move up in class Bill

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06-10-2014, 05:46 PM	#3
Ryan.p.coli Grade 1 Join Date: May 2014 Location: Chicago Posts: 121	That does in fact make sense... Thank you Bill

07-11-2014, 08:11 AM	#5
CEW Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 120	Ryan - with regard to your question on a horse finishing up close and possibly being a stronger indicator than a win......see if you can get some articles on the Tandem concept. There has been a lot written about the Tandem and its a powerful way to look at things. In case you haven't run across it yet, the basic definition is when you have 2 or more horses going against each other today who ran against each other before (preferably in their most recent race). The winner doesn't necessarily have to be among the tandem horses. The statement you read may not have been specifically about the tandem, but it applies in races quite often. The essence of the Tandem is that repeat winners do so at a far lesser degree when running against one or more horses they ran against last time. So with the horses who finished within, say, 5 lengths of the winner - we'll either go back for a better or line or change his final beaten lengths to match the best tandem horse finish (which is an artificial way to elevate the slower horse). The prices you will get doing this can be tremendous. There's more to it than what I've written, but you can get to it in due time. I enjoyed your comment that you read something that was confusing in the Yellow Manual. That is the understatement of all time (!). I'm happy to read that people are still studying that manual. The first time I read it, I said to myself 'either this guy is this unorganized, or he is purposely writing it in an unorganized way'. Then when I went to my first seminar, Howard stated that he wrote that manual the way he did on purpose and that if he had written it in a step by step fashion, people would read it, go out and lose 5 races, then throw it in the trash. Best of luck ! Chuck

07-11-2014, 09:43 AM	#6
atkinsrr Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 507	The Tandem concept is explained in follow up #47 pp 19-20...with the type of horses that I follow..mostly, stakes horses and turf racing I run into a lot of tandem races...they are another helpful piece of the puzzle....

07-11-2014, 02:50 PM	#7
Ryan.p.coli Grade 1 Join Date: May 2014 Location: Chicago Posts: 121	Gentlemen, Thank you for the kind words and the response. I agree wholeheartedly that the yellow manual was somewhat ambiguous. I had the same thought that "Whoever wrote this was disorganized." I see now that it was purposely ambiguous. When I wrote that comment originally, I was just starting my dive into the Sartin Methodology. Over the last month, I have poured countless hours into learning all the nuances for The Sartin Method, tools, and the Matchup principals. My question was more or less answered in the tandem manual (which is also somewhat ambiguous). The key to understanding the entire thing, is indeed the Matchup. Since I've spent time learning the matchup (here at PaceandCap), things have started to come full circle for me. I still have a long ways to go, but I'm in significantly better shape with this concept than when I started. Thanks again. Ryan

07-12-2014, 03:17 PM	#8
CEW Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 120	Ryan - more power to you on your approach. Stay at it. Its a journey, but you'll be looking at races from a perspective that few have, because of the dedication it takes. When you start knocking down race after race you'll know its becoming part of you. Remember 2 horse betting - its a big part of the method and that's part of how we hit the big mutuels! Regards, Chuck