Preakness

[Mark]

The track was the deciding factor in yesterday's Preakness because it predetermined the strategy employed by the speed horses. The amount of rain that had fallen turned the inside paths into a quagmire and that forced Uncle Limo to sprint away from the gate in hopes of getting outside. That forced Nyquist to go with him as well as Awesome Speed. These horses have never had slop flung back in their faces at 35 mph and to attempt to rate would have put them on the deepest part of the track inside in an unfamiliar circumstance. I did not think Awesome Speed had the early speed to go with the top 2 and he had just enough to stay on Nyquist's flank and prevent him from easing off the pace while being clear on the outside. That was the ballgame!
It is a true indication of the quality of Nyquist that he was only beaten a few lengths while Uncle Limo finished sore and was vanned off and Awesome Speed finished 9th beaten 21.5 lengths. The race fell apart after the 1/2 mile. They went 22.2 - 24.2 - 25.4 - 26.2 - 26.9(3/16ths equalized to 1/4 mile). Compare that to the Derby: 22.4 - 23.2 - 24.8 - 25.2 - 25.6.
Gutierrez rode the race that he had to. He can't be faulted.
The only horse with experience in these conditions and the Running style to take advantage of them won the race easily. One of the most sustained horses in the race, Cherry Wine even with tremendous trouble finished second which just shows that the early runners had exhausted themselves. Yet Nyquist kept running and after he was passed he shifted outside and kept trying. Although he is not a large animal and will have to have his races spaced out, he is most likely the best of this crop.

[ClockerDan]

Roger that Dan. The owners comments before the race - trying to quote - "your going to see something special from Nyquist today" . Maybe the deal was go to the lead. Crazy strategy if it was just that! Oh well we will see in days to come now won't we? Good to he from you Dan Hope all is well.

[ClockerDan]

I agree with most of what your saying Mark. However, I think it's not all the fault I place on the jock, the horse is a beast. Gutierrez sent him possibly because of the target was on his back n he knew the others wanted to get out in front n make it as hard as possible to win. I do believe the mud didn't matter to the top 5 horses. But!!! I - ( me ) do believe on a dry track ALL of the horses would have been beaten handily by Nyquist. We shall see if any of them come back with what their bloodlines suggest .

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Lone speed
Using RDSS2 in Val mode and not changing Doc's default settings

In a match race using the derby lines
BLBL as a whole has the Nyq- Exag tandem reversed

Phase 1 is velocity based so Nyq will always be ahead of Exag

VDC is Velocity relative to Deceleration so since Ex decelerated less it gets a better VDC

Attachment 40742

Attachment 40743

Hello Bill,

I appreciated your time to address my questions...

I have never needed to look or depended on one specific readout or one screen in any of the Sartin programs. I have learned through many years of frustrations of "lost races and lost wagers" that it was never one "magic black box".....


I have learned to identify who is the "ratio" horse or the "high energy" horse and who is the "sort" horse or the "entropy" horse. "Ying and Yang" as Howard alluded to with so many other "esoteric" terms in his writings.

Deceleration and its use was proficiently presented by Bruce Jorgensen of the Pacific Northwest where it only rains 365 days a year by using a simple "deceleration par" software by Sartin.

I only questioned V/DC readout of the Derby race since I know wholeheartedly who ran the better race between Nyquist and Exaggerator in the Derby. It seemed that it gave a lot more "undue" credit to "deceleration" over energy expenditure. But you cleared up the issue quite succinctly, Bill...thank you.

I hope I didn't come across "acrimoniously"....oops

[ClockerDan]

Lone speed Bill V. Dan Boals and / or Mark. I know you guys use the Sartin methodology and probably have more experience handicapping horses than a novice like myself, so I want to know why some say Exaggerator ran so fast in the prep race that he won in the slop before the derby? The way I try to handicap ( amateur at best ) is by subtracting the 6 furlong time by the finish time of the 1 & 1/8 he ran. I did NOT see the race as he was running past horses, but merely traveling slower than the first 6 furlongs than the last 4. A horse runs typically around 36-38 mph in a timed 12 second / 2 furlongs there about - correct. So, by watching the race over I thought ( novice - me ) he wasn't speeding up but slowing down and the other horses in the race with him were just merely backing up / slowing way down. That's why Nyquist was and in my ( amateur ) opinion was and still is a slightly superior athlete than all the rest. Nyquist held his speed pretty much the whole 1 & 1/6 in the 1 & 1/8 prep race he ran in - slowing down near the end because no one was even close and jock was in charge of things. Not the case I saw in the Preakness - athlete seemed to be all out with letting up. Your guys thoughts. Ty. Any advise will only help me with My own methodology ( I'm a D.P. - so no big words ) Dan

[DanBoals]

http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2016/...belmont-stakes

I wonder if he was sick during the Preakness, or if the rain and chill during the running got him down? I would have been surprised if they ran in him in the Belmont, he didn't look healthy finishing the Preakness to me, he looked tired.

Hope he runs in the Breeder's Cup. I would love to see him and Exaggerator rematch there.

[ClockerDan]

Hi Dan, I sure hope he runs again. Terrific specimen. Exaggerator is a fine horse - just not as good Nyquist in my amateur eyes. I hope we do see those two for along time - healthy that is. Belmont next, then June I believe ALL the win n your in Breeder cup races start. Correct.

[ClockerDan]

Those races are a little easy to handicap for us armatures - like me. I do well with the Breeders cup.

[Mark]

I keep thinking about the race this horse ran. Without question his inexperience played a major part in his lackluster performance. He did not rate kindly when taken back as mentioned in the race comments and when the straightened for home in the upper stretch his job got him in behind the leaders in the 3 or 4 path and when the muck started hitting him in the face, he threw his head up and stopped.
With most of the speed horses staying in the barn, I think this is the horse to beat in the Belmont. If he is not forced to run too fast 23+ - 46+ early based on this second and third lifetime starts he may well run off. That assumes he came out of the Preakness in good shape. This horse can lay down the fractions when alone on the lead and over the years on several occasions horses that don't appear that fast get the lead and nobody can catch them.
He should be a decent price as Exaggerator will take all the money!

[ClockerDan]

Roger that Mark, I am right there with you. Stradivari is a newbie with plenty of speed which he can carry. His fractions are good - steady 24 second splits no problem up to and past a mile. Not sure if he can get the Belmont distance though!