What really matters?

[Mitch44]

I can't speak for Bill in reference to his 3rd line stats but as a player why would I go into a race automatically giving up 20% that win with 3rd line selection? (Bill stats)


I'll continue to follow the Sartin teachings of best of the last 3 at a comparable dis. & surface and go into the race with a 100% expectations and get many of those correct 3rd line choices as in Bill's example. Why give up any edge in a game that's already tough enough?
Mitch44

[Lt1]

The Pen race is a classic reason as to why we should not accept the program line blindly. The race is for OC25 n2x. That translates to nw of 3 races. The mdn line is not valid here since as Doc stated mdn lines are only good for n2l races and don't fit other conditions. Additionally look at the sr 88 which is 11 points above the other 2 races. I agree with FTL in this case line 1 is the correct line to use.
Tim

[Bill V.]

Hi Tim
When I get home I will rerun the race using line 1, but why ?
Line 3 is by far the " best of the last 3 preceptor at a comparable distance surface and competition level, it is also the best speed rating by 5 points I don't see where your getting 11
points ?
Sartin speed ratings, I see are 88 for line 3 and 83 for line 1

Yes it's a maiden win but , without really knowing the Penn condition book , where else but
In an oc 25 non 2 x is this horse suppose to go ?
Maybe a stakes race ? I know this condition is tough at Parx . So why not come back and take the class available, at Penn ?

This is a 3 year old filly A five point fluctuation for a young horse within 69 days seems normal. If this was a older horse In most cases I agree with Doc and would not go back to a maiden line In a non 3 life race but here I'm glad I used line 3 and took the 15 bucks
Besides a fail on the turf what has she done wrong ,

Thanks Tim
Good Skill always
Bill

[Mitch44]

I agree with Bill that L3 is the correct line.


The "Doc" did away with man made class structures and considered Total Pace as the class factor. He talks about that on the tapes from 1998.


The chaos math/ formulas within the Preceptor supersedes Speed Ratings, man made class structure and IMO Sartin's class of Total Pace for class because the Preceptor contains the compounded factors which propelled all this to a much higher level. None of those things supersedes the Preceptor for getting the correct line. In fact the Preceptor supersedes many previous earlier Phases of Sartin programs and many long standing factors also. There are some factors in RDSS that do and will outperform the Preceptor. However for getting the correct line it can move a novice's game to heights that for most of us took many years of trial and error.


Mitch44


Additionally this horses deceleration in L1 is pretty normal and the horse won again therefore it wasn't all out for its second win. Further proof that line 3 is correct is the fact this horse with today's win gives it 3 wins in 4 starts an exceptional horse indeed. Thousands of horses never win 1 race let alone 3 of 4 therefore the correct L3 was more indicated of what it did in today race.


Difference of opinions are good, particularity in horse racing or the game would be over.


Mitch44

[Lt1]

OK guys we agree to disagree. Mitch the man made class really doesn't apply here since the Doc recognized that mdn winners going against winners are not good propositions. Also Tom Brohamer pointer out at the Vegas seminar the most likely winner of this type of race is a horse that has won 2 races. I would also check the turn time of race 3. If it doesn't rank in the top 2 of the contenders it does not bode well for the horse. Also like I stated that 11 point difference between the other 2 concerns me. I usually accept a 5 point difference. I will be interested where the horse tiers on BL/BL or RX3 using both lines. A legit contender usually doesn't get hurt much if at all by using either. I've been using this approach successfully for years but if what you do works for you so be it. That's the beauty of the Methodology we are free to use it the way we see fit.
Tim

[Bill V.]

Hi Tim

On one hand you quoting Doc about not using a maiden win line.
You are also referring to Doc,s guideline about checking the turn time,
But you are comparing the trackmaster speed ratings which really have nothing to do with the
Follow Up guidelines in follow ups 70 to 77
ALMOST EVERY READOUT in RDSS is from the Sartin speed rating. You are looking at the trackmaster rating which Doc felt was interior, This is why he developed the adjusted speed rating. This change coinsides with when Doc began to deal with Travkmaster creating the download versions of synthsis and Val 1.
I now see where your getting a 11 point swing. However there is only a 5 point difference
In the adjusted speed ratings

Thanks for you view

Bill

[Lt1]

Hi Bill. I've used that turn time ranking in RDSS ever since I began using the program and it works well for me. As far as not using a mdn line in races for multi winners I got this right from Doc at a Meadowlands seminar when he invited me back to his room for a 1on1 session. Even if this were a race for n1x or n2l I would also check that turn time since Doc also told me that mdns tend to loaf around the turn in their mdn races and should therefore rank in the top 2 tt vs winners. Another thing I would check is this horse appeaars to be a ntl by the 2nd call in its' 2 wins. Was he projected to get it. Your right with the adj sr so I would have accepted it in a n1 race.. As always I think it's great that veteran members can have these types of discussions since all members can benefit from different viewpoints and shared knowledge. Anyway on a more important note I hope you are coming along with your health issues. Your valuable input on the site is always most welcomed.
Tim

[Mitch44]

The "Doc" guidelines for MD lines etc. were prior to his tapes in 1998.


TT regardless if in a maiden race or any race for that matter is only one fraction and can not compare to compounded fractions and factors which was Sartin whole thesis in the 1998 tapes. Actually he goes as far as to say all 3 fractions as used in the match-up can not compare to the compounded factors that evolved and he cast aside individual fractions (Phase 3) and even the match-up in favor of the compounded factors.
Just about any time Sartin talks about TT he degrades it as over hyped and not the
the magic bullet, factor or fraction many believe it to be.(Not a stand alone) He's correct about that but what he doesn't say is that's it's a very important fraction in compounded fractions because its a part of several different fractions such as HE, EP and important in V/DC. In layman terms as a stand alone it sucks and compounded its true worth shines like a piece of gold.

Sartin had a way of speaking and writing that confused the hell out of members and even after reading or listening to something most were still confused. I once was in that category also. Hopefully I have left the State of confusion forever.


One thing that struck me about Sartin was that in a private setting his manner of speaking changed according to the person he was talking to. Only a very intelligent person can do this based on my life experiences however many of the brightest can't do this. Generally those big IQ's can only be understood by having a conversation with themselves. "Doc" had big words for the brainiest and common language for the layman. Maybe that came from his chosen field that he earned his PHD in.

This horse also comes under "The Hats" rule of using what you have. Ponder this, what line would you have used for his second win race? If you say his maiden win than its good enough for the race in question.


Mitch44

[Lt1]

Apples and oranges Mitch. Line 2 was a turf race and line 1 was a dirt mdn win which qualified as the line to use since it was a n1 winner race. Todays race was against multiple winners and as I quoted above the Doc told me directly that mdn lines were not to be used in any race above n1l. Now let's assumed that there was no line 3 present then you would have only line 1 but you would or should have noted that the horse was skipping a condition for this race a difficult task indeed. It could indicate an extremely confident trainer or it just might be a public workout. I'll use the turn time to determine if this horse belongs in that type of situation. Using what Doc told me about turn time has served me very well in eliminating mdns against winners.
Tim

[Mitch44]

We'll have agree to disagree because I would have used line 3 in this situation following the "Doc" guidelines.
Sartin said many things and changed them later. He definitely evolved and of course this all stated around 1975 so it should have evolved over that long period of time. So should we evolve to accept new findings, techniques . . . While a turf live verses may be apples and oranges there is no way L1 & L3 are apples and oranges and could a lost in the race.
Mitch44
Mitch44