The predictive e/l balance

[Tim Y]

"The weighted difference between the 2nd call and final fraction."

This simple number, particularly when studied throughout a specific horse's past performances, can tell a lot about the form cycle, the animal's usual running style, it's maturity, it's ability to handle certain distances and/or surfaces, can help you spot an isolated BIG MOVE that usually does not repeat (which happens all the time when a pace collapses or is so slow to the second call that the said runner has tons left) AND when used in evaluating those in a single field of runners (e/l relativity, and angle first introduced here last year), and help to eliminate those runners that are going to be too far out of the pace scenario to logically "get up" in time. It also allows formation of a track model for each distance.

The use on babies alone is fantastic. In one of the Follow Ups the median percent of all of Secretariat's races was presented and as this great one matured, the median went DOWN. That, along with what I observed by working with trainers, started my observing how babies learn to run. The final status of this observation was the 2nd call maiden: a horse that is telling you it is learning how to spread out it's speed and graduating by running the quickest to the 2nd call in it's previous or next to last race. Few babies (other than the great ones) learn late moves early in their DIRT races. In first steps toward getting out of the maiden ranks, these types learn to apportion their speed.

Young horses in their quest to approach longer distances will tell you that they have an upper limit to their abilities by an ever increasing e/l number. Hard Spun was classic in this regard never quite getting a step past 9 furlongs. Many many young ones, heading to the Kentucky Derby can be eliminated this way.

Track Bias: the e/l is a remarkable tool, when kept on a race to race basis, in prediciting if your track is showing a bias, and to what degree. This has worked fantastically at Churchill when the e/l of Oak's Day sets up the e/l for that first Saturday in May. At real speed favoring ovals like Aqu, Fe and Oaklawn, following it during the first few races, it can predict how the remainder of a card is going to run, or at courses that REALLY HAVE A BIG SWING in e/l (Woodbine) it can save you a lot of money and frustration.

[Charlie D]

Lets use our imagination and say, for whatever reason Street Sense takes no part in 2008 KD, who wins ??? Hard Spun probably


So, in using above, we have shown, the e/l predictive, the track played little part in the outcome of the 2007 KD

So what did determine the outcome of the 2007 KD ??? The Street Sense v Hard Spun v The rest of the feild MATCH UP


Take the 2008 KD, what determined Big Brown winning??? The Match Up of BB (a superior horse) v the rest (inferior horses)

Track does not even enter the equation does it, Why?? because it has very little influence on the outcome

[Bill V.]

Good points Charlie

That is why with the Sartin Methodology
We enter lines from the horses past performance lines
instead of from the result charts

We use the horses past performance to determine what will happen
in todays Match Up

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

So, in using above, we have shown, the e/l predictive, the track played little part in the outcome of the 2007 KD

So what did determine the outcome of the 2007 KD ??? The Street Sense v Hard Spun v The rest of the feild MATCH UP


Take the 2008 KD, what determined Big Brown winning??? The Match Up of BB (a superior horse) v the rest (inferior horses)

Track does not even enter the equation does it, Why?? because it has very little influence on the outcome

MALARKEY

I cut my teeth on West Coast tracks starting about the time of Tim Tam's K Derby. I heard all the talk about bias and, having few, if any days effecting racing where I followed it (Hollywood's Summer meet boasted continuous fast tracks for over 8 years at one point), thought that bias was a pipe dream.

I started modeling tracks and shifted EAST. Once I did this, I could predict, almost to the day,when DEEP maintenance of the track had taken place at almost any venue. I would often talk to our maintenance crew here in town between races and throw out statements like:"You guys either dug up the track or added a lot of topsoil to it two days ago." THE RESPONSE? "How did you know that, you weren't here?"

I follow the e/l proclivities of EACH winning horse's pp's throughout each program. Most days, the logical horses do their logical thing. BUT when it is wet and particularly when it is cold, the winning pp e/l's move positively to the point of my discovery of the angle STYLE (e/l) over SUBSTANCE (total energy) hits with uncanny repetition. When there is a strong biased course (i.e Bellamy Road's Wood Memorial victory) NOTHING not on the front end of the e/l range wins. NOTHING. I know a fellow who worked with the track crew THAT particular day, and he reported that they brought in tons of sand and rolled the track to the point, as he stated "It was like a pave road and NOTHING off the pace had a chance."

IF this observation were an isolated one, that would be one thing, BUT many others have found EXACTLY WHAT I FOUND and have profited substantially from it. One of the best applications of this is when a shipper comes in from an "opposite" course (i.e FG to Aqu) and, if they are the favorite, AND the e/l is predicting it's bias, it is an easy choice to TOTALLY eliminate them. The e/l alone eliminated many a low ODDS colt in the Derby: Sweetnothernsaint, Pyro. Stormello, Bob n'John, NoBiz, Bellamy Road etc. etc.

I have been following the e/l of all the races on K Oaks day now for 6 years. The maintenance crew is famous for manipulating the track there so when it is biased Friday, it carries over to Saturday. The year Giacomo won, all the speed on Friday (including one UNDEFEATED front running sprinter that towered over her field, BACKED UP significantly) versus the year Funny Cide won on the first Saturday in May, the Oaks winner (with a high positive e/l) went wire to wire by open lengths. I find the correlation MORE than significant.

Year after year, I have followed the rising e/l, and percent medians of many of the three year olds heading toward the Derby and NONE of them with a steadily rising e/l, NOT A ONE, did a thing at 10 furlongs at Churchill...NOT A ONE.

The track bias is NOT universal, but my study on e/l relativity (substantiated by 5 independent studies) shows that it is predictive to the point that one can eliminate several. (often favorites) from field after field. Terry (a great handicapper from Minnesota) and I made an absolute KILLING at Woodbine using just this angle: horses that NEVER hung on were winning race after race in late November there. That bias hung on for three days in -10 degree weather with winds until they canceled. It was real and repetitive.

Your inexperience in showing YET again as the SAME thing will happen again this year as the colts head toward Churchill as it has for as many years as I have followed it.

[Tim Y]

what are the e/l's in AQU's opener?

JUST playing it alone predicted the exacta

FIT THE E/L of the HORSE to the E/L model of the TRACK just as E/L relativity predicts YET AGAIN

[Charlie D]

Everything that differs from Tims view seems to be Malarkey


No point putting up an opposing view really is there

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Everything that differs from Tims view seems to be Malarkey


No point putting up an opposing view really is there

Wel since I have TONS of substantiation for years, and YOU have NONE, which one do you think an OBJECTIVE third party might accept?

BRING forth DATA to show that differing point of view and THEN and only then will that differing position have ANY VALIDITY AT ALL

Opinion doesn't cut it in a rational debate

[Tim Y]

2nd race today at AQU goes to the e/l winners

[Charlie D]

The Street Sense's , Curlin's, Big Brown's, Zarakava's, etc, etc v rest tells you the Match Up decides



And the third parties can read and decide for themselves can't they

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

The Street Sense's , Curlin's, Big Brown's, Zarakava's, etc, etc v rest tells you the Match Up decides



And the third parties can read and decide for themselves can't they

you have little to no historical perspective to draw on if that is as far back as your racing knowledge takes you.

Horses way way back have told the same tale: early has a big advantage and the e/l predicts it over and over..

Using champions to make your argument leaves oput about 99% of all the horses running today and yesterday