FTL - Race Conditions

[NeedForSpeed]

Thanks Tom I will look into that and also thanks Hoof11 I like some of the little I've read from Quinn. Tom is this the Canterbury guy? Thats my home track I used to frequent quite a bit. Chatting in the mornings with Matty Carruthers when he was running the simulcast video / audio center.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by tom

Steve Davidowitz's latest version of his book goes into a lot detail on conditions - good stuff.


Or, a horse who has been laid off for most of the specified time period, but was multiple winner just before that.

To some extent I agree.
If I am looking at a race for non winners in six months (NW16M) with no exception, I would be looking for the horse(s) with the least number of starts in the last six months. Obviously the horses that have had many attempts at the condition and continue to fail will probably fail again. The other side of the coin is a horse(s) with, perhaps, one or two races back after a layoff and are showing improvement are more likely win candidates. I would NOT, however, consider a horse coming back for the first time off a six month layoff, even if it has a string of wins prior to the layoff. My first thought in that case would be,"why the layoff?" If a horse is in top shape and winning races you don't just stop them for no reason. For me, that would be a red flag. Owning a thoroughbred race horse is not a cheap undertaking. In fact, it can be quite expensive. Owners don't want to see their horse "in the barn" or "on the farm", especially if the horse is winning and making money for them.

In the end, whatever one may be looking for, if we can't find it, we have that wonderful option to PASS THE RACE!

[tom]

Originally Posted by NeedForSpeed

Thanks Tom I will look into that and also thanks Hoof11 I like some of the little I've read from Quinn. Tom is this the Canterbury guy? Thats my home track I used to frequent quite a bit. Chatting in the mornings with Matty Carruthers when he was running the simulcast video / audio center.

That is one - from Canterbury.
He did a seminar at the Buffalo Airport one Friday evening for the Fort Erie card the next day - he was there for a promotion. One of the best three hours talking handicapping I ever spent! The guy never tires or talking about it.

[trotman]

NeedForSpeed I was asked about conditions many months ago with regards to as FTL alluded to what the race secretary has stabled on the grounds. My answer was just go to any race track web site click on horsemen and download the actual condition books. This will spell out not only the classifications that FTL mentioned but it will also tell you those extra conditions that the race secretary writes. Woodbine Entertainment went as far as spelling out from the top to bottom level conditions.

[alydar_ David]

Tip: Don't get too carried with the conditions, thinking that's where the trainer wants to place his charge.

Often there's no reasonable alternative and the trainer has to take what he can get, especially with turf races.

For example, suppose you're training a 25K turf horse and the only thing even close to that level is a 35k claimer at your track in the next month. The horse is fit and ready to rumble, but he's never raced at that level and you don't really feel he can win at that level. What are you going to do? Keep him in the barn and just have the owner eat the three grand it's costing him each month?

[trotman]

Pardon the bluntness, but anyone with one eye and an ***hole, if you can't figure that out then this is a game you shouldn't be in.