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Old 08-11-2013, 11:34 AM   #1
Because I Can Jim
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How to Make People Believe

Yesterday was my wedding anniversary.

My misses and I went to Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs to have dinner and to watch some races. It is also a trotter's track so it has a racebook.

The misses is Chinese and never experience a racetrack before. We watched the trotters once before and went to Penn National to watch thoroughbreds, but, she was never in a racebook so I thought we would give it a try.

I mention these tracks because she admits she does not know anything about how to "pick" a horse so she just looks at the numbers on the tote board and makes her choices. She was very reluctant to wager because money is valuable to her. She doesn't want to lose, but, likes to see if she can win.

So we settled in at the racebook. I had handicapped Mountaineer's card for the last five races.

Race 4 - I liked the 4 and 7. The odds on the 4 was 1/5 after someone dumped about $7000 to win on the 4 with 5 MTP. I thought there was something wrong with the tote board or something else because the odds changed so drastically. Because of it, I decided to pass the race. The 4 won paying $3.00.

Race 5 - I liked the 5 and 7 going off at 4/5 and 9/5 respectively. Pass. The 7 won paying $3.00.

Race 6 - Here is where it gets interesting.... The misses saw I had the winner in the two races, but, she could not understand why I didn't bet. (A conversation for another day.) I told her I liked the 3 and the 6 going off at 4-1 and 6-1. "Honey, here is $6. Go over to that lady there. Take this paper with you and give it to her so that she knows you want $2 to win, $2 to place and $2 to show on horse #6." She brought back the ticket understanding only a little about what was on it.

At the top of the stretch - the 3 and 6. Go 6!! Come on 6!!! Yes, #6!!!! We won honey!!!!

Of course the first thing she had to say was "How much did we win?" Let's see....17.60 to win, 6.40 to place and 4.80 to show = 28.80

Now take the ticket back to the lady and she will give you the money. The lady only gives her 28.00. You don't even want to begin to know about why we didn't get back the 0.80 cents. LOL

But, she is happy. Hey. Give me back the $6. You can keep the rest. (Aren't I so wonderful!!! LOL)

Race 7 - I like the 5-8-7 but decide to pass the race. My misses now gets brave because she finally broke the "I'm going to bet money barrier" and decides she likes the 6-7-9 just from looking at the tote board. She wants to wager $2 to win on each of the horses. (For anyone who wagers at the tracks, if you don't already know....this is where you profits are coming from!!! LOL But, it is our anniversary and....) The 8 wins and she loses. Reality check. Flush with money one race, losing the next.

Race 8 - I like the 7 and 5, but, I have some serious questions about the race. Therefore, I pass the race. However, I give the misses $6 more dollars to put across the board on the 5 horse.

At the first fraction the 7 horse is 3/4 lengths behind sandwiched between the two leaders. You can see the jockey try to slow the horse down and he does such a good job that you can see the horse thinking "Ohhhh yeah!!! Well take this!!!" and throws the rider. The 10 horse wins paying 68.80. An opportunity missed for me because the 5 horse pays 16.00 to place and $7.40 to show. I would have had $2w/$4p/$8s if I had wagered. But, when there are too many questions or you are not sure - pass - there is always a next race. (Arghhhhh! Who thinks up these sayings and quotes to soothe you when yo want instant gratification!)

But, my misses is now very happy as she gets to cash a ticket for 16.00 and 7.40 = 23.40!!! Now she is up like $33 but she is sitting there with $40 because I didn't have the heart to take back the $6 she lost.

Race 9 - I like the 10 and 5. At 1 MTP the odds are 6/5 and 3 respectively. "Sorry honey, I am going to pass the race. Odds are too low for me." We watch.

As the money from around the racebooks get dumped into the pools at post time, the odds on the 5 go up to 6-1!!!! Would have been a wager!!! Missed opportunity!!!!

Missed it was.... The 5 won paying 14.60, 4.60 and 3.80. How do I explain to my misses shy we didn't have the wager and make money???!!!!

And that is why you can paper handicap and think you have got it all down pat when you are looking at the result charts after the fact, but, the reality of live racing is very much different. It isn't that you are something different when paper handicapping versus live wagering. It is that here is a race - after the fact - that I would have included in my stats for a win, how much I made, etc....when I am paper handicapping that I don't get to include in my true, actual, live records of wagers.... Very different.

So, on the way home, all I listened to was "Lao Gong (affectioantely "Old Man" in Mandarin) you must do this! You can make money!!! We must come here every Saturday and play!!!" Arghhhhh....I've created a monster!!! LOL
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Old 08-11-2013, 12:11 PM   #2
Bill V.
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nice night

Thanks Jim
It sure sounds like you had a nice time.
I find that when I do races live with people around me,I do much better
than when I'm alone, This is why I travel all the way down to DMR
when I could just bet from home.

Also I find great value in paper betting, Doing races when I know the
results. If I have not handicapped a race from Parx because I had other commitments,
I will always look at the results and then work the race,
Why? because I am looking for patterns,and I am just practicing.
I bet the exact same way if I know the results or not, If I do
the race before hand I wait till the last moment because I am wager capping.
I don't hide the favorite, If it looks strong I pass,
Anyway I do this from the result charts too, I find great value in practicing
and analyzing winner's

Good Skill today
Bill
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Old 08-11-2013, 12:41 PM   #3
lone speed
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Wink

Quote:
Originally Posted by Because I Can Jim View Post
Yesterday was my wedding anniversary.

My misses and I went to Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs to have dinner and to watch some races. It is also a trotter's track so it has a racebook.

The misses is Chinese and never experience a racetrack before. So, on the way home, all I listened to was "Lao Gong (affectioantely "Old Man" in Mandarin) you must do this! You can make money!!! We must come here every Saturday and play!!!" Arghhhhh....I've created a monster!!! LOL

Jim;

Thanks for sharing your wedding night at the racetrack with us. Great humor.

At least your wife did not say, "Wu hen sheng qi, Lao Gong!" You took me to a racetrack on our wedding anniversary???

On a side note: with the passage of time, the meaning of "Lao Gong" does mean "old man". It's also the same for husband ( Lao gong 老公 and wife, (Lao Po 老婆) in Mandarin (Putonghua) Chinese.

But maybe your wife knows the real meaning of "Lao Gong" and is really calling you by that interpretation......she is calling you an "Eunach".

Quote from CNN article:

The buzz started when "Chongqing News" reported on a post by netizen “Cherry Girl" (樱桃女孩) citing a piece of Chinese literature -- “Zao Lin Za Zu" ("枣林杂俎") -- written by Chinese historian Tan Qian (谈迁) during late Ming or early Qing dynasty, saying that the term “lao gong” has historically refered to eunuchs, not husbands.

link:http://travel.cnn.com/shanghai/life/...ans-ego-652529
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Old 08-11-2013, 01:01 PM   #4
Ted Craven
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Ha! Jim - you are so 'lucky ' to have your spouse onside with the whole wagering/gambling thing! Your challenge may be the opposite of other spouses whose significant other emits dubious vibrations - you may need to 'rate' her from being too encouraging! At least now you have some potential leverage to ask her to 'leave you alone' those hours you have set aside for serious wagering at home. Great story, thanks for sharing. And many more happy years to you both!

Lone Speed - I'm not sure if that's 'too much information' on the original meaning of 'Lao Gong' I remember RichieP sometimes would throw in Italian expressions into his posts - it helped me polish some of my Italian. Looking forward to learning enough Mandarin now to get into trouble at Woodbine (huge Chinese population).

Ted
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Old 08-12-2013, 05:52 PM   #5
Because I Can Jim
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Bill,
I find some value in going back over races and even more value when capping a race even if it is on paper. It is just that your records can be a little skewed because it is not live.

lone speed,
Good Putonghua!!! Where did you learn from? And my wife disagrees with you. I am a lao gong and not a gong gong which refers to the emporer's enuchs.

Ted,
It definitely helps when you have support. I don't even want to contemplate where I would be at if I had had the support of a good woman back in 1985 when I was learning the methodology. But, life went on and funny how things go around because here I am again...
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Old 08-13-2013, 07:43 AM   #6
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Disagree

Quote:
Bill,
I find some value in going back over races and even more value when capping a race even if it is on paper. It is just that your records can be a little skewed because it is not live.
Jim I disagree

Not if you are truly working races in a consistent manner.
"if you have a CONSISTENT approach, it will be the same no matter what.
On the other hand, if you do one race "this way" and another race "that way", THAT is when your records will be skewed because the approach was not consistent." I agree with this

Jim Bradshaw used to bet just about every race, If he lost he would just say
There is another race coming up in ,

Since I work races in my own constant manner, my records reflect horses that won the race. The factors that I model come from only plus and plus within a zero pace lines.

If I work a race and pass I still record the final odds of the winner and the winners APV win percentage and days since last race data.

Here is a small block of my data base. There is much more data per line
but It would be too big a screen shot so I'm just showing a part of the line.
These are 9 consecutive races from Parx
I am not sure if I did all 9 races live or after the fact.
I does not matter since I work in a very consistent manner.

Name:  GRID.PNG
Views: 556
Size:  17.4 KB

If you notice line #765, #768 and #770 have zero's in the factors I model.
This is because of of these reasons, Either the winner had no plus or plus within a zero recent pacelines ,the winner had a plus paceline but I passed the race or lastly a horse who I would not enter a line for won the race

Lets look
Race # 765 This race My two bets were odds of 4.80 and 5.90 to 1
The winner paid $8.60 but It did not have a + or (+) paceline so I have no enties in these factors I mark this race as a loss however I still can record
the winners APV win percentage and days since last race data.

Race #766 There are entries in the factors I model, The winner paid $4.40
Since in the I see 0.00 in the odds of the horses I bet, I passed this race.
Looking at the comments area( not shown) I wrote "Passed winner #1 paid two of the top 3 were under 2/1 so In this race the winner was one of the low odds horses.Doing this comment step, I see I made a correct call in passing.

Race # 767 Since this race is shaded a lighter color It means this was a win.
The two horses I bet both had + or (+) pacelines. My bets were on horses
with odds of 4.30 and 9.80 to 1. The winner was the 4.30/1 horse.

Race #768 this line has all zero's. I see the winner went off at 6/1. I bet two horses in the race but the winner had no + or (+) pacelines, I lost. I still enter the winners APV win percentage and days since last race data. but I leave the win factors with zeros.

Race #769 I have the winners fators but the winner was only .70/1 my bets lost.

Race # 770 This race was for 2 year olds the winner was a FTS that went off at11.30 to 1 since it is a FTS I had no paceline data.

Race # 771 The winner paid $3.20. My two bets lost but I still enter my data.

Race # 772 Here I have a winners data but I see I did not bet the race. I checked the comment area and I passed the race because 2 of my top 3 horses were under 5/2. Here I passed a $13.80 winner.

Race # 773 Here my low odd 5/2 horse won so its shaded and I happlly record all the winners data.

I do this every race every card. Since I use a consistent paceline/contender
method and bet/ pass in a consistent method and have a minimum odds
limit, It really does not matter if I do the race live or for practice later.

Thanks Bill
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Old 08-13-2013, 10:53 AM   #7
Because I Can Jim
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Bill,
Thanks for your thinking. I appreciate the sharing of thought without being adversarial. Your point is well taken.

Let me play the devil's advocate here.

To keep things simple, let's say that I wager on only one horse to win per race. (Wagering in other fashinons is just an expansion of the concept which is that I have preset guideines as to how I am going to wager.) If therace is too confusing, I pass the race. If I can narrow down to the one horse that I am going to wager on with confidence I will make the wager. As part of my guidlines, I will wager only on the horse if it is going off at say, I don't know, let's say 5-1 to keep it simple.

Also, as part of the scenario, I track my wagering results on a 20 race cycle basis which seems to be "the norm." (As an aside for those who haven't read my thoughts about a 20 race cycle, click on this link http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9258)
And as I think about this... this may also be an arguement in favor of your line of thinking if one thinks about lonoger cycles, but, not shorter ones.

So my guidelines are that I am wagering on one horse to win if I have confidence in the horse and it is going at 5-1 or greater. (Notice, I did not say "going off at...")

Now, I will wholeheartedly agree with you that if I am looking at whether the horse wins or not, they yes, does it matter if the race is live or after the fact on paper? I agree and don't think so as long as how you put it "I am consistant in my approach" meaning that as long as the final odds are 5-1 or better it goes on my records as a playable race and if less than 5-1, it is a passed race.

However (and here is where the devil's advocate comes in), I am sitting in the racebook atching the odds. It is 1 MTP. The odds on the horse I like is 3-1 on the tote. (Saturday, 08/10/13 at MNR the 9th race - Horse #5) Doesn't meet my criteria so I pass the race. The race runs and the winner pays 14.60.

Now, as I said, I will agree with you that if I am tracking my ability to select the winner in a race, then yes, it doesn't matter if the race was live or on paper.

However, if I am tracking my profit......over a 20 race cycle..... my numbers can be a bit skewed, because that particular race would not be included in my "live" races which would be different from tracking my profit from "paper races".

And this is where I think having a larger race cycle helps because the argument can then be made that the opposite can happen. I can be sitting there in the racebook. The odds are 6-1. I make the wager. Then the simulcast money gets dumped into the pools and the odds drop to 3-1.

Think about the ramifications.

Over 20 race cycles, things are slightly not what they seem. Over 773 races, how many times will these to scenarios play out and become a sort of wash? And even if one side of the scenario is posted however many times, over 773 races, the effect becomes statistically insignificant.

So, I will agree with you as to it depends upon your sample size of your records. The shorter the cycle, the skewing can have an effect which then effects one's thinking about profitablility. With much longer cycles (and that is why I wrote the thread about cycles) the effect becomes minimal.

Good point that you made Bill...good point.

Jim
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Old 08-13-2013, 12:04 PM   #8
Bill V.
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1 or two

Hi Jim

Thanks for your reply. I understand what your saying about a 1 horse win
approach, but Its part of the game to miss out on your minimum odds.
I tell you what, By betting two horses I also have another problem,
Lets say I get the race down to three horses
Horse A is 5/2
Horse B is 9/2
Horse C is 7/1

How often did I pick horse A and C and horse B wins and pays $11.00?
As I say this would bother some people. It used to bother me.
That is because I looked at racing as a now event. I had to win every race,
I had to have a good 20 race cycle, I needed the $11.00 to eat
I believe in the value of 20 race cycles but I also believe in the
Psychology Of Winning. Doc advice's for those cycles is visualization.
In my every race, every card database I see plenty of times when my decision to bet
Horse A and Horse C was the better decision,

Anyway other than horses falling under my minimum odds of 5/2
I don't concern myself with what happens to the odds.
I know I have two horses and the odds go up late too
If you notice I keep track of the morning line of the two horses I bet
I also track the final odds of those horses,

These are all part of Doc's Psychology Of Winning.
Not only thinking about you success of failure but to visualize it

Anyway with a if you have a CONSISTENT approach, it will be the same no matter what.
My records are not skewed because my approach was consistent.
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Old 08-13-2013, 04:11 PM   #9
Because I Can Jim
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Bill,

Your points are well taken and I you are ablsolutely right that your approach needs to be consistent.

Best of luck on your racing cards and I'll see you live on the forum

Jim
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Old 08-13-2013, 05:43 PM   #10
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Good points Bill, as always.

As we speak i'm "visualizing" a $30K P4 win next weekend, i'll let you know how that works out, i'm long overdue.
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