CT 4th Sunday

[shoeless]

Bill or Richie if you have a chance could you do the 4th at CT on Sunday with Spec 160.I would be interested in what you come up with.Jeff

[Ted Craven]

Can I give it a go? A matchup sheds a lot of light:

Earlies:
#2 Sierra 23.0 46.4
#6 Real 22.4 46.1 (also EP style, can also run just behind the leader and win)

Sierra will go for the lead and can wire the field only when he gets a relatively uncontested lead. When challenged, he folds after the 2nd call, at the latest. Real does not absolutely need the lead but will be within a length of Sierra, pushing him to stay further ahead, and fold predicatably.

Pressers:
#1 Polish
#4 Golden (also SP style)
#7 Tonic (though 2nd line wired the field, it is atypical and requires a 1st call time of 23.5 or slower, which won't happen today)

If the Earlies collapse, one of the Pressers will be there, and the only one worth betting on is Polish at 7-1.

My uncertainty is whether Real may be able to stalk Sierra at a slow enough pace to tire that one yet reserve enough energy to finish up. Again, the price on Polish makes the betting decision easier.

I chose line 4 for Tonic as more representative of how he will run today (i.e. not the wire-to-wire 2nd)

The BL/BL screen could be misleading here given the matchup analysis of the Earlies (including Sierra), so one could hide Sierra, or just discount it, and focus on the remaining Pressers (Tonic, Golden, Polish). Polish looks to have excellent relative True Speed, and equal Deceleration to Tonic. Further, Tonic won 2 back and just doesn't seem to fire frequently enough to do it again today.

That's my unpolished analysis, and I did it knowing the result before hand. I think all the numbers must be subsidiary to the matchup. I'd really appreciate learning more from anyone else's view on this.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

#1 and #2

[Ted Craven]

#4 and #6

[Ted Craven]

#7 and BL/BL

[Ted Craven]

Summary and Result Chart

[admin]

I didn't do the race

I will be very happy to do races for instruction And to show my method and paceline selection But I must do races before they run
It is impossible for me to do a race 100% focused and in the zone If I know the results
I will gladly do any race for you I prefer races were every horse has at least 3 lines I will do my best to show what i'm doing

Thanks
Bill

[shoeless]

Ted,Thanks for doing that race and your analysis.That's interesting on Tonic you went 4 back,I took his 2nd back cause it was run at CT.


Bill,That's ok I understand.I just had done this race that day with Synergism and was wondering how Spec would do with it.Jeff

[Ted Craven]

For Tonic, the 2nd or the 4th line both have it better than Polish, so I wanted to represent the horse by a line which I thought would more likely be run today, and that was not going to be the wire-to-wire win.

I think that was among the (several) reasons I was intrigued by this race, and perhaps got a (very small) epiphany about how all analysis needs to start with a clear recognition of the horses' running styles and how they are likely to interact with each other (i.e. a matchup).

Ted

[RichieP]

E:
2 - only 2 wins showing were blowouts. hate that but thats all to go by. looking away from Ct lines to more conventional layout ( Pim,Lrl etc) because the other E-Ep ( # 6) is coming from Mnr and we need to compare a bit.

lets combine 2 lines of the 2 horse ( lines 3 and 5) to get:
1c - 22.4 -line 5
2c - 46.4 -line 3
ft - 106.2 -line 3 -lets add 6.2 to get a 6f time of 112.4

so we have for the 2
1c- 22.4
2c -46.4
ft - 112.4

lets compare to the # 6 horse line 2.
1c - 22.2
2c - 46.0
ft - 112.1

the 6 kills off the 2 and especially since the 6 does NOT have to have the lead to win the 2 is history.

so projecting pace off the # 6 - 22-46.0-112.1

select reasonable pacelines for the others ELIMINATING the 2 horse as dead meat.

the 1 u can enter 2 lines - line 3 from Ct and line 7 from Pen

the 3 has no line

the 4 you can use last line from Ct as it matches 2c pace. if u want u can forgive the slower 1c cause its a bull ring going round 2 turns

the 5 has only last line usable

the 6 we already have as line 2

the 7 line 4 is ok to use

the 8 last 3 races in a row show the horse out of form witht eh 3rd back against MUCH slower 1c-2c than he sees today.

if u use software here are the lines I mentioned as usable on "160".

pretty straightforward I guess

my feedback on the race
Rich