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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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03-27-2016, 01:14 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
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pick winners VS making money
how many do keep a track profile, and if you do, do you ever handicap that profile. Quite few nuggets hide in there. Its not just TPR, early or late, positions at the various calls, or 5 bl at the 2nd call and at the finish, and that is all good, but
if you rank the trainers and jocks by their win %, bet the horse where the trainer has very low % of wins and the jock has a high % of wins. Sometimes the public do catch on and the horses goes out with low odds, but how often the public make mistakes. Would you bet a trainer that in a field of 10 is ranked 9th in his wins % but today his horses is ridden by a jock ranked 1st., 2nd. or even 3rd. by his win %. Keep notes about. Good luck. Last edited by gl45; 03-27-2016 at 01:28 PM. |
03-27-2016, 02:41 PM | #2 |
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Location: The Villages, Fl.
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For me its all about the horse which is my main focus. The best trainer in the world can't get a horse to win if the ability isn't there.To me its 90% the horse which is another reason why picking contenders is so important.
Trainers stats can also be very deceiving, There is very little difference between a 15% trainer and a 18% or 20%. If the 15% trainer had the stock of the 20% trainer then his % would also rise. One may get an edge where a trainer is much better in a certain situation such as his was earned on turf and the other was earned on dirt. Their stats need to be put in perspective but you can have several of them also. Focus on the horse. Mitch44 |
03-27-2016, 03:28 PM | #3 |
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gl45, I agree with Mitch that the horse is 90%, and picking the pace line is key. He also makes a very good point about trainer stats.
One thing I do look for when I have closely matched horses is how they have run on the track there running on today and how they have run at the distance they are running at today. It is my opinion that horse have favorite track and distances. (Horse for the course) Mike |
03-27-2016, 05:32 PM | #4 |
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Posts: 878
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I just run the contest race at Tampa
My contender 3-7-10 I need a 4th contender, which one from the following screen shot. Would you bet $2 on horse #5, I would because the trainer was ranked 6th on a field of 7 horses and had a jock ranked 3rd. on the field. Risks VS rewards. Last edited by gl45; 08-02-2017 at 08:40 AM. |
03-27-2016, 06:51 PM | #5 |
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gl45, without knowing anything about this race did you base your selections only on trainer/jockey stats?
Mike |
03-27-2016, 09:01 PM | #6 |
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Location: The Villages, Fl.
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I would not bet # 5 and would stick to my top contenders. Except for the #2 all these trainers seem capable. I have no idea what their stats are for and if overall they do not give a clear picture. This a turf race and I have no idea how they earned their % & rankings. Did they earn it on turf or Dirt?
All these fun bets over time add up and unless you track them you may be surprised at their cost. I would not go beyond my contenders. Obviously you doubt their rankings.The best trainer in the world can't get a win out of a horse that has no possibly. And the worse trainer can win if he has the horse. A reason to take a shot on a horse has to make sound sense and this situation doesn't warrant it. Perhaps if the horse won its last race big and improved big such as from a switch to turf, would be a better example and his pace figures rank there with the completion. In that situation who knows what this horses top might be, And he better have some good odds to win stepping up in class etc. Now to separate those top contenders requires using other tools such as NTL who won't get it etc. Mowens33 is correct in that many horses prefer certain tracks and refuse to run overs others etc. Every horse has a best distance, favorite surface etc. Its up to us the player to analyze and determine if the horse meets todays conditions ,competition and is properly placed. Our outside look into the horse is unbiased and is in many cases better than the trainers, even high % trainers. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 03-27-2016 at 09:03 PM. |
03-28-2016, 07:11 AM | #7 |
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mow33
no I did not, one thing that I do look for is to see how many times this field raced together. Here are the screen shots. Based on these screen shot would you consider #5 a contender? You can use any handicapping method to beat the races, it become easier if you add a few more bits of infos. Bill V. TPR lesson is a straight forward method to rake some money, and when not sure pass the race. I don't have anything new to add to the TPR discussion, Bill covered the most of it. Last edited by gl45; 08-02-2017 at 08:40 AM. |
03-28-2016, 08:42 AM | #8 |
Grade 1
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Location: The Villages, Fl.
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At one time I used tandem's but no longer. It works when it works and doesn't when it doesn't. It failed to work on a higher edge or percentage for me so I abandoned it. For me there are other factors that prove to be much more efficient. One would have to keep their own records to discover this as compared to other factors.
But to answer your question, no none of that would change my mind and I would stick to my top contenders. A horse that's not even on this screen could win if a top contender. Also being a fighter and proven winner could be more important as some horses just don't win and have second-itis. A classic ex. was in the La. Derby last Sat.(2 days ago)with the # 11 horse who had only 1 win for 6 starts. Gr 1 horses usually don't lose two races in a row or have multiple loses. He also was a tandem horse that lost. There are other factors that are more efficient than the tandem. Keep records of your tandems and compare them to other factors. Mitch44 |
03-28-2016, 09:52 AM | #9 |
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Posts: 878
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Mitch,
FG is not a track that I use. You mention Louisiana Derby, run it to see what would offer. The screen shot of my contenders, no matter what, I would have won some money, a 5 horse (1-2-3-5-7) ex box ($20) would have fetched me$93.5 for a ROI 4.67. If $20 is too expensive maybe 1-2-5 on top 3-7 and revers for $12. Last edited by gl45; 08-02-2017 at 08:40 AM. |
03-28-2016, 11:05 AM | #10 | |
Grade 1
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Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA
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Quote:
Looking at the information I have as a win contender I don’t see it! But I have been wrong many times before! Mike |
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