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RDSS Racing Decision Support System – The Modern Sartin Methodology

 
 
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Old 06-12-2013, 10:10 PM   #1
NeedForSpeed
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Using RDSS with a sample race in my learning (Apr 13, 2013 - OP Race 2)

Hello everyone.

Well I've been hitting it pretty hard since I joined here about a week ago. I want to give a progress report by doing a sample race with what I know so far as to get some feed back on what I might be doing right and more importantly what I am doing wrong or missing. My goal is to maximize the usage of Sartin Methodology. That means knowing when I am violating any methodology rules and being set straight. I am using everything I know in the week I have been reading and watching on this site. I must say its been far beyond anything I expected in learning and enjoying in handicapping and maybe even more importantly philosophies on life and other such matters.

So here we are. I am using Oaklawn Park 04-13-2013 Race 2. I selected this race for a number of reasons mostly because its the type of race I will be using once I start this thing for real. Its a full field all horses with plenty of PP's. Its straight forward in nature as all 12 horses have 2 wins lifetime. Its also a race I believe the software did an excellent job on.

A couple of things to point out before we get going For those types of horses that will affect the race but will not win I am going to make them in the money contenders. I want the software to show them on the screen even though I don't consider them real contenders.

I am selecting 2 horses to win per the preferred Sartin style. I am going in order of contender selection then pace line selection again which I believe the methodology taught.

CONTENDER SELECTION

1- Dynamic Knight ==> "+" pace line in last. Distance and surface match today's event. WIN CONTENDER
2- Grind ==> "+" last pace line. Distance, surface and conditions match today's event. I wavered about making this horse an ITM but it was only a neck off the last race. WIN CONTENDER
3- Franks On Fire ==> "+" last pace line. Distance, surface and conditions match today's event. WIN CONTENDER
4- Brother Dudeleo ==> "(+)" 2 pace lines back with 2 "0" pace lines sandwiched in between. The horses finishes since winning its 2NW race are dismal. ITM CONTENDER
5- Party Hard ==> 2 wins in 34 races non of which are on the screen are too much to overcome. He has a "(+)" last race but its not enough for me to see a win today. OUT
6- Perfect Reflection ==> This horse looks like a sprinter. His only 2 usable lines are the last 2 both of which are sprints. He won the 5.5f to get out of 2NW and was beat soundly in his only 3NW. OUT
7- Tiz Our Insight ==> "+" last pace line. Distance, surface and conditions match today's event. Being cautious about the bullring numbers from Delta but going to call this WIN CONTENDER.
8- Barham ==> Really tricky. This horse is a serious sprinter and even if he wasn't his last route was 709 days ago. I almost used him until I saw his string of state bred races. He also just graduated into NW3 conditions. OUT
9- Truman's Commander ==> "+" last pace line. Distance, surface and conditions match today's event he's even coming down a bit in price but moving up to NW3. WIN CONTENDER
10- Arrived Home ==> Another sprinter type but this one has a "(+)" last pace line that matches up well with today's race. WIN CONTENDER
11- Front Line Lawyer ==> 4 straight "+" pace lines all that fit today's race. They should all be this easy. WIN CONTENDER
12- Rhodsey ==> Lightly raced horse with 3 straight "+" pace lines until an oh so close "+" in its last race. In fact some people might call that a "(+)" race. WIN CONTENDER

So with contender selection done lets pick pace lines. The methodology seems to say if the last pace line is a good one use it. With that in mind.

1- Dynamic Knight ==> The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
2- Grind ==> The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
3- Franks On Fire ==> The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
4- Brother Dudeleo ==> The last pace line is a "0" and the 2nd pace line which fits today's race and is recent enough is (+). LINE 2
7- Tiz Our Insight ==> The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
9- Truman's Commander ==> The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
10- Arrived Home ==> The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
11- Front Line Lawyer ==> The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
12- Rhodsey ==> Tough call. The last pace line is oh so close. But the 2nd pace line is a "+" and is only 13 days off the first. LINE 2

Time to press the analysis button in RDSS. We have what we see in picture #1. This is where I try to visualize the race and I think Velocity - PoH gives me the best idea. What I see is a lukewarm pace lead by the #4 horse. I try to study the 4 horse a little more than the rest because he is the key to the pace. I see this horse unable to maintain the lead and fall off. Because the pace will be on the slower side I automatically eliminate any ESP "L" types. The #11 horse is now eliminated from win contender.

So now what? On to picture #2. I think this leaves us with our first win selection. The #2 horse is the only ESP "P" type in the race. This is a good thing because he should be sitting comfortably off the pace set by a faltering #4 horse. I look at Total Energy and this horse is right near the top at #2. That's enough for me to make him one of my win bets.

The last win bet will have to come from a group thats all bunched together as far as race shape is concerned. I start with the #1 horse because he leads in Total Energy. But I want to get more validation so I go to the BL/BL screen. Well that settles it for me as the 1 horse leads in almost all categories including the very popular (I am finding out) VDC.

So there you have it. Win bets on the 1 and the 2. Of course I knew the results coming in and you have to tell yourself are you subconsciously going to be swayed no matter how objective you are trying to be? Probably. But I thought this was a good exercise for me to start gaining knowledge into the Methodology. Please let me know if you have suggestions or comments or anything as I am not trying to show how great a handicapper I am but to be successful using the Sartin Methodology and of course the wonderful RDSS software which nailed this 1 horse which paid $7.50.

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Last edited by Ted Craven; 06-12-2013 at 10:43 PM. Reason: resized images
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Old 06-12-2013, 11:54 PM   #2
lone speed
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Great detailed analysis!

Need for Speed;

I have to called you out on some immaterial points:

You presented an in-depth analysis that is worthy of a seasoned handicapper and a seasoned user of the Sartin Methodology. You might say that you joined a week ago but your choice of words and detailed analysis, paints a picture of a seasoned user and handicapper of at least 3-5 years. You have lurked well.....

Your post is what we need more of, in this site. Doc used to have users of his programs send in their 20 race cycles to get feedback on his programs at racetracks around the country.

Great decision on leaving out the #11 horse for final analysis and the reason you gave was an excellent remark. This horse may have a strong last fraction but judging by his percent median, it looked like he came off some slow pace of race in his last paceline.

Looking forward to more post of races worked on Rdss....

Good skills
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Old 06-13-2013, 08:20 AM   #3
NeedForSpeed
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Oh I've been going to the track for quite some time now. Like I told Ted in my mail to him when I joined I remember watching Secretariat win the Belmont. I've read Quirin's book where he invented speed to the half mile numbers and I've read most of Beyer and as I told Ted I tried scribbling them on my race form when I went to the Derby in 1988.

But when it comes to Sartin I am new to his teachings. You know what? I've heard the Sartin name off and on in the past and what they said is you all were part of the "Sartin Cult". Well I didn't want to be part of any cult. And something called Thorograph(?) But hey I came to this site by chance and found out that none of that is true.

So anyway thats my story and I am sticking to it.

As far as handicapping thanks for the kind words. I really am learning my way through stuff on here but its nice to see that I can use my experience to apply the Sartin ideas and I feel its coming together nicely so far.
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Old 06-13-2013, 10:06 AM   #4
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Also to add… I’ve always been a loser at the track. Not that I haven’t had my good days or a stretch where I thought I finally had the formula. So you might ask how come the longevity? Because I keep a strict budget and stick to it. I’m paid quite well in my profession and there is spending money left over when it’s all said and done. I can think of nothing better than to go to the track with it. I love the track all of my favorite times (don’t tell my wife) have to do with being at the track. But I don’t need the track. When the budget is gone then so am I. I’ve gone 1 to 2 years at a time away from the track. When the budget is built back up I am right back.
I regret that I didn’t cross paths with the Sartin group when he was alive I think I would have embraced all of it. It was like 2 entities in a parallel world we both had the same interests the stars just never aligned. The video seminars look like a blast! To meet Doc Sartin I think that would have been special. You mention that you thought I’ve been part of the methodology for a while. I am an avid reader and everything I have read so far has struck a chord with me.
So here I am. Can I become a consistent winner? Who knows but I will enjoy giving it a try.
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Old 06-13-2013, 01:30 PM   #5
Bill V.
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Great

Hi Need for Speed

What a breath of fresh air. I can only project good to come your way.
with your winning attitude and desire I see a person who "gets it "

Keep up the great work Ted has made added and many helpful tools to the library and FTL will lead you to a become something much more than a player.
With your attitude you will make Doc's work shine no matter what.
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Old 06-13-2013, 02:28 PM   #6
NeedForSpeed
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First off thanks Lone Speed – you gave me the opening for me to state my background and intentions here. I think everyone here deserves to know that about me when they are taking time out to write to my postings. Bill it’s great to hear from you I appreciate what you said. I’ll always bring a good attitude and try my best. Mistakes will be made along the way but I am learning a lot. I’ve read FTL’s posts and they have been amazingly helpful. The race that you see in this thread I worked on for the last 3 days. I used it to try to figure things out. Hitting buttons, understanding all the screens and columns. I was just thrashing my way through. I was selecting pace lines and it wasn’t coming together until I ran across an FTL posting showing how you select contenders first then the pace lines. I practiced that on my race then I ran across FTL’s learning post with a Sartin follow up on 2 races having us select contenders and horse types and pace lines. I did that and nailed them both. At that point my confidence level shot up and I went back to my OP race and it starting becoming clear. At that point I wanted to post what I had done mainly to see if I was doing this right and following the methodology. I feel I’ve taken a step here. Hard to explain really so I won’t. Thanks again Bill I will post again soon and I look forward to reading your past postings as I slog through here.
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