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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 06-13-2018, 02:19 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
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Parx Tuesday June 5, Race 9

I thought this race analysis would be an interesting teaching tool, one that I got from FTL. Having noticed the nice winning price he asked me if I could find the contenders and make a case for the winner. So all of the work was done after the fact, but I only used FTL's guidelines to whittle down the field. Here is the race. lifetime - more on that in a moment

Here are the conditions:
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The 1 was scratched, the 3 and 4 were 20/1 and the 4 had been out 279 days to boot. leaving 1A, 2-5-6-7-8-9 to review for contender status. Track was fast!

1a non contender

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Horse 2. Presser. Last line at this class, run at 5.5f on an off track; horse is - 1-9 lifetime, more on that later.
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Horse 5. Last line, sustained horse, only sprint showing, 1-21 lifetime
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Old 06-13-2018, 02:27 PM   #2
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More horses

Horse 6, no sprints in last 90 days, non contender
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Horse 7, A presser or early presser; last line; horse is 1-32 lifetime!
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Horse 8 - I labeled him an S; but last line was not close enough to be a contender. And he is 1-15 lifetime. Non contender
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Horse 9 - last 2 races up the track, non contender.
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Old 06-13-2018, 02:34 PM   #3
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So we are left with three contenders, but are there really three?

Here is the original data screen that shows the 2 and 7 coming from the same race, with the 7 having an apparent slight edge in the first fraction.
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The TPR graph
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The segments screen
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If you bet two horses no problem, you end up with the 2 and 7. FTL wanted to go farther and narrow it down even more.

First of all the 5 and 7 are 1-21 and 1-32 respectively, pretty much showing their total lack of consistency. The 2 is 1-9 lifetime and has not failed nearly as much as the other two, but there is more!
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Old 06-13-2018, 02:47 PM   #4
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Here are the 9 races in the PPs for the two. How did he get to this race, this day?

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The following is what FTL sent me when I questioned him about lifetime records and their reliability.

"The first thing that would catch my eye is that there are no early horses in the race.

The next thing would be all the “1 fors” with way too many races.

Is there anything that stands out about the winner? Damned right there is!!

Let’s start by noting that among all the big 1 fors, this horse is 1 for 9. Ok. No big deal.

Here is the big deal.

Just look at the class for all the horses.

Most of them have been running against older horses around the same level as today and for the same condition as today. They just keep losing versus the same class and condition.

Now to the winner.

I’ll pick up with its’ maiden win versus $30,000 maiden claimers.
Then it goes to ALW-NW1X
Then it tries SA 30K
Then OPEN $25K, 3 year olds only
Then OPEN $15K, 3 year olds only
Then OPEN $11K, 3 year olds only
Then $15K, NW2L versus 3 year olds only
Finally, $7.5K, NW2L, versus older horses for the first time

This history stands out like a neon sign (in a good way) when compared to the rest of the field.

When you consider that following the guidelines gets you down to just 3 horses, with the winner being one of them, this class level advantage sets it apart.

If you feel like gambling a little, 6/1 ain’t bad in this spot.

Sometimes you can find spots like these are better than all the numbers you can come up with.

What I'm hoping for is that you will come to understand that "the numbers" don't always matter. Naturally every race doesn't look like this one, but you do have to be prepared when you find one.

It's as much about the winner "finding" its' level as it is the rest of the field "not being able" to find theirs.[emphasis added.]

This is an example of the reason I like low level races. You don't find this type of race at the high end races. Low level races offer many more opportunities."

Apologize for letting this run on, but I thought it was a great example to learn with and enjoy.

Thanks FTL
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Old 06-13-2018, 02:48 PM   #5
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Hi Bill. I went back and checked my TWIN SPIRES and RDSS races for the day. My contenders were 96257. I played the 2 &9 and hit the winner also. Thanks for posting this.
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Old 06-13-2018, 07:55 PM   #6
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Nice going Tim. All that really counts is having it before the race goes off. After the fact doesn't count. Excellent call.


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