Just follow the guidelines

[For The Lead]

The Sartin Methodology provides guidelines that cover just about any situation you will encounter.
Every race I post is done in the same way and following those guidelines. I also add a couple of guidelines of my own that I have learned from my database. Here they are:
1 - eliminate any horse that has a ML of 20/1 or higher. You'll get high price winners without searching for a needle in the haystack.
2 - eliminate any horse that has not run in the last 90 days. 95% of all winners have had a race in the last 90 days.
3 - eliminate any horse that does not have a "+" or "(+)" line at a similar distance and surface in the last 90 days.
CONSISTENCY is the key.

There were only 7 horses in this race. Here is my rundown of the field.


#1 – Line 2, 62 days ago. Last line, 26 days ago, was on the turf. Not the same surface as today. Today’s condition is for NW2L. Following the guidelines, you can use the horses maiden win, which is line 2 and a “+” race.
#2 – NO LINE. This horse has one race, a maiden win, however, it was not at today’s distance.
#3 – Last line. It was at the same distance and surface, therefore there is no reason to go back any further. The last line was a “+” race.
#4 – NO LINE. This horse has no form since its’ maiden win 327 days ago. Is there anything in the horses 7 races since then that encourages you to think it is ready to run back to that performance?
#5 – Line 2. Last line was not at a similar distance. Line 2 was at a similar distance. It was a “+” line. There is no reason to go back further.
#6 - No LINE. This horse hasn’t run in 124 days. It is not a contender.
#7 - Last line. The last line was at the same distance and surface. In fact, it was at the same track and condition. The race is a “+” race (it ran 3rd) and it was just 14 days ago.

Here are the horses.