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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 02-29-2016, 11:45 AM   #1
Bill V.
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Pace line thoughts SA 10F Turf review

From a private message question,
and please don't ever consider asking questions anything but welcomed learning for all.

This is in regards to this posted race
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...98&postcount=1
Why would I use a 8 furlong pace line for a 10 furlong race
Doc's guidelines are to use lines within a furlong of today's distance
I used a mile line for both the winner and the place horse
For the 1 I suppose i should have used line 2, but line 2 at 8.5 is also more than 1 furlong short.

For the winner #4 I used the last line Its from 1 mile, Line 2 is from 8.5
so again It still doe not make the guidelines. However l iine 2 to me looks like
a trouble trip. It does not say so in the comments but looking at the position the horse normally runs and its TPR readouts, Line 2 looks just like it just did
not fire, But It has run well at 8.5 in the past.
I stayed with the last line.


Doc offers guidelines not rules
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Old 02-29-2016, 11:51 AM   #2
Bill V.
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here are my paceline choices

horse 1 2 3 4
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Old 02-29-2016, 11:53 AM   #3
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horse

5 6 7

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Name:  H6.JPG
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Old 03-01-2016, 02:34 PM   #4
atkinsrr
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Hi Bill just read your comments on the 10F race at S.A. where you used 8F lines...I also have this problem in 10F races so I usually pass a lot of them...but I was wondering if you ever go back more than 4 lines to get a pace line. Sometimes I will go back 6 or more pace lines in these longer races if that's what I have to do to get within one furlong of todays distance...but usually if it's at the same race track as todays race....your thoughts please
Randy A.
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Old 03-01-2016, 03:29 PM   #5
Bill V.
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HELLO Randy
Welcome to the TPR forum Glad to see you here
That is an excellent question .
No not really , but I will look at races past 4 back at a closer distance to see if the phase 1 numbers EP LP and TPR match the race I am considering that is in the top 4
lines . I recently discusses this in a pm .
All the lines in the SA 10 f race are adjusted to today's 10f
distance So if a horse runs let's say a 180 TPR at 10 f
In line 6 and today I see it is being rated off a 8.5 line
In like line 2 and it also get a 180 with a matching early late readout to line 6 then I will have no problem using line 2 even though it does not fit the 1 furlong guideline
I think in most 10f race you will need to blend the guideline but I would not do it in the triple crown races
Bill
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Old 03-01-2016, 08:05 PM   #6
gl45
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this game is tough enough that there is no need to make it more difficult.
If you don't feel confident just pass.
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Old 03-01-2016, 09:55 PM   #7
Mark
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My Take

Bill, in my view, because of the many years you have worked with TPR numbers, or Phase I, methodically and persistently practicing this craft, you see a horse race through TPR. I salute you. I wish I was better at it. Jim Bradshaw used RAW paceline times and positions and he found his way to recognize winning "pictures", pattern recognition. You are doing the same thing with your use of TPR aided by databases to establish winners' parameters I believe.
Many people suffer from "New is better". Over the decades of my play I have suffered from this. So as new factors and presentations have been introduced they tend to migrate into those areas. However, in my experience when I have found a winning horseplayer, generally they have been using their method for years not months. In doing so, they recognize pacelines that don't seem to fit and others that leap from the page.
Glad to see you are more involved again and I always enjoy your perspective on these races.
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Old 03-01-2016, 10:18 PM   #8
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MARK ! welcome to the TPR forum
Thank you for the very nice complaments
I hope you can help us out with your match up skills
Always appreciative of the kind honest way you communicate on the PM's. *
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Old 03-02-2016, 08:20 AM   #9
Mitch44
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Conceptually and for beginners TPR or Phase 1 is a piece of cake. What enhances it is the advance concepts put forth by the Doc which many can't employ. These advance concepts are including in BL/BL and V/DC along in other readouts. which are far superior to TPR and earlier phases. He also improved beaten the length formulas in all the programs, however I'm not sure with this version of TPR. Good ? ??? for Ted here.

The Doc also evolved as far as pace lines to stay within 1 F and the reason for this is that extraction for distances (a horse shortening up is more accurate because the horse has already run the distance and actually may improve because it won't decelerate as much at a shorter dis), in stretch outs one is asking a horse to do something it never has done and the greater the stretch out the less accurate the projection. Picking lines greater than 1 F is a road to the poor house. It may work in anyone race but not in any series of races. Good luck with that.

Myself I never would have used 8F lines for this 10 F race. Now some helpful hints in the line you pick for stretch outs is its 3rd Fr or LPR which in this case (your 8F lines) is greater ( good sign) and their Early/late show their S types (another good sign) and % Med. which we don't have here. I would say you lucked out here and with the # 7 in here scratching also helped you win.

No one can predict with any accuracy where deceleration will take place or how fast it will occur once it begins as every horse has a best distance.This is why we have minor tracks that card a lot of 5 & 5.5 F races because they decelerate and can't win at 6F which are the majority of races carded at major tracks.

Project more than 1F if you want but it'll be at your own peril the majority of time. Or you can accept the Doc's teachings that was learned through trial and error and from data collected on 10's of thousands of races.
Good luck.
Mitch44
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Old 03-02-2016, 10:13 AM   #10
Bill V.
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Welcome Mitch
Yes BLBL and vdc are advanced concepts and should be
used . I choose to use the phase 1 numbers and energy early and late factors, plus positions and the fulcrum and some form and class factors like all the authers of Pace Makes The Race . Yes you nailed. It is the simple concept that I hope can get people to the advanced concepts .
I know it's a bit confusing because this post is about anther pre run race posted were I showed the readouts
But I left out horse 6 line and show a scratched horse.
I hope to blend the post for clarity
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