|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
05-07-2014, 09:47 PM | #11 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Don
Quote:
Thanks for taking the time to do the work to learn I hope this helps you. Please read what Alf wrote Alf has it correct Now we are just using Phase 1 so.. The most important step is to pick your pace lines. Remember in phase 1 we always rate the last line first but that is another matter. For now lets just go with what I show here. Step 1. Look at the running styles. Are there any E7 or E8's ? Yes - Horse F F= fast Of horses A B C D E, who is a EP ? Horse D The other's are pressers. They will only win if the early pressure falls apart. And they are close enough at the second call. Step 2 is to calculate the EPR LPR and TPR but we don't need to do any of that or do any of the track to track or daily track variant adjustments. RDSS2 does it all for us so lets just look at the readouts. Who is your # 1 EPR horse ? Horse F with a 89.5 This is a sprint race, Actually its 5.5 furlongs The EP readout is the second call. So horse F will be in the lead at the second call. Who has the second best EP rating ? Horse E with a 88.4 . Each point = 1 length so at the second call horse F still has a 1 length advantage over horse E and even bigger leads over A, B, C, and D. This is why I told you there is no way horse C could go wire to wire How is it going to out break horse F ? Now there are more tools available just on this screen Horse A has a 5 point advantage over horse F in TPR but in Phase 1 any horse within 5 points of the top TPR horse is a contender. Lets look at the early late difference graph. All the horses use there energy on the early side So the only way horse E could over take horse F is if horse F used too much energy to get the lead at the EP point (the second call ) Horse F is a lone E-8 Just by what we see on the readouts there was no other early pressure besides horse E, Look at how horse E uses its energy almost the same as horse F 11 for F 9 for E So were will horse E get the energy to over take horse F ? This is in the advanced concepts chapter in the original Pace Makes The Race. Lastly although total energy is not part of phase 1 Ted has added it to the TPR screen and its very helpful. Every horse runs about a 166 total energy total energy is the sum of the 3 fractions so these horses all run pretty much the same way. I hope this makes it clear This will be much easier for you once you get more practice with Phase 1. But it will all depend on the pace lines you use to rate the horses. Also it would have been much easier if you knew the distance was 5.5 furlongs and that horse F was in post 1 !!! Please check out this post from FTL about Early horses on the inside http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9406 |
|
05-11-2014, 08:52 PM | #12 |
Grade 2
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Fells Point MD
Posts: 95
|
Thanks Bill for a very good reply, I just sorry it took so long to get back (been Working), The E/L Diff I want to start recording, Do you record it in your records as E 11 (it is 11.3) and E 9 (it is 8.1) I want to understand the screen
better and add this to my records. Thanks Don |
05-12-2014, 10:06 AM | #13 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Does not matter
Hi Don
Your question : Quote:
But If you record it a 11 and 9 ( or 8) over many races it will average out to the same number. If you consistently round it up or down. Here is an example . Here are some Total Energy and Med Energy readouts from my Parx 8 furlong older male model. The raw numbers are to the left and the rounded up or down numbers are to the right, either way the average is very close |
|
05-12-2014, 09:08 PM | #14 |
Grade 2
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Fells Point MD
Posts: 95
|
OK I see, that a lot of help, Thanks Bill
|
05-20-2014, 11:14 AM | #15 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
She's
Hi Don and P-C
Here is Horse F She's Animated. The race I used for the match up phase 1 race was from Tampa on April 16 She's Animated ran on opening day at Delaware on Saturday Here are her pace lines. What happened in that match up race of horse A B C D E and F was that (F) She's Animated was able to run a some what easy 89.5 EPR but and because she was loose on the lead see how she was able to run her best LPR 83.5 So now when she ran on Saturday the question becomes will she run another 89.5 EPR or because she is a early horse will she run in the 90's to get the lead ? Is there another early EPR horse in the race ? and if so will she drop back down into the 70's for her third fraction ? |
05-20-2014, 04:42 PM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA
Posts: 1,035
|
Bill, hope you don’t mind me jumping in but here are my thoughts: this is tough call, she is a 4 year old and looking at her last 3 of 4 for the year she may be just an improving horse? That last race was a 5 point speed rating bump so even if she’s not pushed I would expect that she will revert back to a 76 to 78 LPR. I would use the 2nd line for pace.
Mike |
05-20-2014, 07:32 PM | #17 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
So who
So who went wire to wire this time ?
results are way below While we are at it. The conditions of this race are a waiver claimer Think about that if you can and what that means v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v v |
05-20-2014, 09:06 PM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA
Posts: 1,035
|
Well Animated looks like a improving horse after all, ran a good race against a horse with a much higher seep rating. Good line selection! With my pace line she's more than likely not a contender!!
Waiver claimer long layoff, can't be claimed? Mike |
05-21-2014, 10:48 AM | #19 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Mike
good work Also The "waiver" horse has to be running back for the same price/class as its' last race OR higher. |
05-21-2014, 11:34 AM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA
Posts: 1,035
|
Bill, Thanks
I enjoyed the She's Animated post! Mike |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Calculating TPR | CaptDon100 | Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) | 21 | 08-25-2014 09:50 PM |