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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 04-22-2016, 12:28 AM   #21
Bill V.
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Readouts

My workup

Step 1 Top 5 TPR Line 1
3 8 14 5 4

Step 2 Fulcrum horse
Fulcrum horse # 1 83 EPR

Step 3 Running styles

Horse 1 EP Line 1 + race no reason to go past it
Horse 2 Sus Line 2 Off 103 day Line 2 Excuse line 1 Wrong surface
Horse 3 Press Line 2 is not a plus line but it is the only recent turf route
Horse 4 Sus Off 222 days This is too long a layoff Doc's cut ooff is 189 days
Horse 5 Sus No line no comparable turf routes within 90 days
Horse 6 EP Line 2 Excuse line 1 wrong surface
Horse 7 Sus Line 1 Nice effort in line 1 after a long layoffat 9 furlongs Now comes back again after 49 days ?
Line 4 is the same race as today and it only earned a 161TPR
Horse 8 EP No Line no comparable turf routes within 90 days
Horse 9 SP Don't like to use 7.5 lines Only because I can't get past line 1 This horse shows no + races within 90 days
routing
Horse 10 Early No Line no comparable turf routes within 90 days
Horse 11 SP No Line no comparable turf routes within 90 days
Horse 12 EP Line 2 excuse line 1 Too high class
Horse 13 Presser No Line no comparable turf routes within 90 days
Horse 14 Sus No Line no comparable turf routes within 90 days

Now My top 5 TPR horses
12, 4 7 6 2


Step 4 Who has the top EPR

The 6 has the best EPR 85
Early Presser
Can It go wire to
wire = against the horses with pace lines yes it could ,


The top TPR horses
They are 12 4 7-6 tie
Top 3 VDC = 12 7 2


My bets The 6 beats the 1 in EPR The 7 is a question mark because of the distance and poor effort in line 4 12 Is The best LPR and TPR
The 4 has too long a layoff The 2 is my OTE horse and its top 3 VDC
with so many question marks i would probably pass
If I had to bet i would look OTE

my bets 12 and 2

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Old 04-22-2016, 03:57 PM   #22
gl45
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Bill,
Mark did mention the Power Line, I have 3 races that I'm not betting because I'm having probs in find the Power Line, maybe you can figure these race using your method. No rush.

GP 4-22..... races 7-8-9
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Old 04-22-2016, 07:05 PM   #23
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In follow up #81 page 1 of the publishers desk Doc does away with the always use line 1 and expands to the best of thee last 3 at a comparable dist. and surface etc. That's the way I learned it when I joined in 1990. I've been doing it like that since.
Tim
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Old 04-22-2016, 08:47 PM   #24
Bill V.
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Tim

That is true, and you are not alone if you are using Doc's updated guidelines of the best adjusted trackmaster speed ratings at a comparable distance surface and competition level , There are many others out there winning following Doc's guidelines
Do you have the card for this race
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Old 04-22-2016, 09:50 PM   #25
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Hi Bill. No I don't I'm a little late to the party.
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Old 04-22-2016, 09:56 PM   #26
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No problem

That is okay

Do you use the auto line selector or do you decide which is the best of the last 3 speed ratings by eye?.
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Old 04-23-2016, 04:48 AM   #27
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4/22 GP 7th

I have had a full day and only handicapped a few races for tomorrow so I will explain how to do this one race, A PACELESS RACE. No horse in here has shown that they are dedicated E horses so we will pick a POWER LINE for each horse and handicap from there. Set up the race with each horse having his last line selected. Use the automatic paceline selection button. Now go to the #1 horse. Check the ITM Contender box. We want to check each paceline for the horse. If you double click on the far left box above the check boxes for line selection, they will all be checked. Now click on the Analysis tab, this is what you should have:
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Since we are on the Original Screen we can see all the pacelines as they appear in the Racing Form. Look at each line and eliminate any line with a finish position that isn't up close or a win. It is tempting to make this horse an E or EP, but she has only won as a Presser and it appears they have begun to take her back because she doesn't win running on the lead. I will be very generous with these horses and give them a close finish with 5 beaten lengths particular if it was against a faster early pace.
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Now let's find the fastest early pace with an acceptable finish by clicking on Velocity POR tab. You can see that the last race is the horses POWER LINE as it ran against the fastest F1 and had the best SC. You want to select this line for the horse so go back to the Original Screen and check the box for this line.
When you check the any single line the horse is elevated into the Win contender area. Now repeat these steps. Don't worry if the line is the 2nfd or 5th or 10th. Just select the line that has the acceptable finish with the fastest early pace which will usually pop to the top when you click on the Velocity POR tab. So here we are:
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You now have your pacelines and you need to confirm that the horse is capable of delivering them today by answering the following 3 questions:
1). Is he still a horse?, 2). Has he changed his running style and become a slow horse? 3). Can he still get on top of his fractions? These are Jim Bradshaw's questions as relayed to us in the Hat Check Blog. Figure them out! Ok. Let's say you accept them all. Now let's do a little handicapping. Click on the Adjusted tab:
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Who are going to be your contenders? Who has run the best against the fastest early pace? Who will be closest to the leader, factoring the pace of the race. I don't like to use the 7.5f GP race for pacelines because they have a run up distance of 264ft. So the early fractions are way to fast. they break from the gate and run 264ft before they break the first timer beam. But you use what you have. From the 1st Call adjusted numbers it appears the the 1st Call will be 48 and some change, the 2nd Call 1:12 and change. Who has competed successfully against these fractions? The #1, #2, #3. Don't get sucked in a horse like #5. He is what you call a "Suck Along Horse" At no time in the race did he make any moves or impact the race. The horses came back to him. If he is 5.6 lengths back of a 1:13.3, what is he going to be today behind a 1:12.2 or 3. Now look at the tandems. in the last 61 days the #1 has beaten the #6 and #7. The #2 has beaten the #3, #5 and #6.
So I'm here:
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So id you bet two you have the winner. But look at the Segment and BL/BL screens. Set this race up on your own computer and work it and see what you get. Couple things: When selecting POWER LINES use the ones on today's surface and distance structure over other higher ranked in this dirt lines. Use your common sense! Always default to what is going on today.
Secondly, this is a great example of why the Final Fraction is the least predictive of the fractions. The 3rd fraction is a effect or result of what has happened in the first 2!!! Big 3rd fraction horses are normally slow horses, always prefer earlier running horses. Horses don't run in the back by choice, they are back there because they are slow. Early and Presser horses will always beat Sustained horses except if they run too fast early which is the result of pace pressure on the lead. Or it is a conformation or genetic thing. They're Quarter horses. I should throw injury in there too.
If I have time tomorrow I'll do one of the others.
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Old 04-23-2016, 08:18 AM   #28
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Race 8

Hi GL45 and Mark

Since mark did race 7 I will look at race 8
GL45 sorry but this race would be a pass for me
Here are the conditions

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I don't have lines for almost all the horses I don't use power lines per Richie and Hat but I do use PLUS races within 90 days almost always
This race is a pretty good race for 3 year old Fillys
They are still developing and many are running for the first time as 3 year olds
So we don't really know what they can do in phase 1 we only see them at age 2

Anyway I had the best of last 3 preceptor auto line selector activated , So
I checked what line it picked but I changed a couple of lines always starting with line 1 .

BL3 Per = Best of the last 3 comparable via preceptor

My look
Race 8 6 furlongs OC 75 N1-X 3 year old fillys

Horse 1 No line BL3 Per picked line 1 but its 230 days ago

Horse 2 EP BL3 Per picked line 1. I agree 36 days

Horse 3 EP BL3 Per picked line 3 I will go with line 2 Its a + line and 77 days ago I excused line 1 - wrong surface

Horse 4 Press BL3 Per picked line 2 I agree 42 days I excused line 1 - wrong surface

Horse 5 Press BL3 Per picked line 3 No line for me
off 202 days

Horse 6 Press BL3 Per picked line 3 No line for me
no + races within 90 days at todays distance or surface

Horse 7 EP BL3 Per picked line 1 No line for me
off 251 days has only run as a 2 year old

Horse 8
EP BL3 Per picked line 1 No line for me
no + races within 90 days at today's distance or surface

So I am only left with 3 horses

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I will go check the results
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Old 04-23-2016, 08:29 AM   #29
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well

Horse 6 wins I could have stayed with the BL3 Per and used line 3
but Since I passed so many other horse by this time I want to stay consistent

This is my interpretation of "power lines " I favor recent plus lines


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Old 04-23-2016, 08:49 AM   #30
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Mark, Bill,
Thank you
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