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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 03-29-2016, 10:06 AM   #21
gandalf380
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jockey-trainer

IMHO, the original post by GL45 raises a valid point which seems to have been ignored. Some of the most astute handicappers on the track are jockeys' agents. If a high percentage jockey gets on a horse trained by a low percentage trainer, that is something to pay attention to, especially if that jockey never rides for that trainer. The agent must have seen something in the horse or the setup of the race to warrant giving the horse a ride. Remember, the better jockey usually has a choice of horses to ride and I think it is significant when this situation arises.
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Old 03-29-2016, 11:16 AM   #22
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I wouldn't read too much into jockey moves. As Jerry Bailey explained in his video series there are numerous reasons jockeys end up on certain mounts. In the example above it may just be returning a favor, or the trainer has another the barn that the jock really wants to ride down the road. It still all comes down to the horse.
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Old 03-29-2016, 12:26 PM   #23
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"Mitch, Jeff,
thanks for the kind words. I think we all agree that the purpose of handicapping is to be successful in make money by choosing high odds horses."

Whoa!!!! gl45 You have a knack of twisting things and changing things such as going from the # 5 in your example to the # 7 after the fact to fit your narrative. And now you putting words in my mouth with " by choosing high odds horses" I have never said that. I've said that only top contenders should be considered for any further evaluation and that it all comes down to the horse 90% period. Hell everything has an exception to it but one is better off sticking to the 90%.

To take a field of horses and decide your bets by trainer stats and or odds isn't a successful strategy to this game. Its a proven fact that the longer the odds the less the % of winners etc. All one has to do is look at the booking percentages to confirm that.
gl45 you sound like a Piszolla practitioner?

Any horse has to have more going for it than odds as there are more false longshots than there are false favorites and trainers aren't the key, as the best loose about 80%. Now among your contenders its up to the player to make those decisions. Of my 5 contenders who is legit and who isn't? The way I get a horse that pays $5.60 is the same way I get the one that pays $25.60.

Odds and trainers aren't a primary handicapping factor to selecting contenders is what I said however they can be another tool to separate them. Even then I would put the basics of the game ahead of them such as consistency, fits todays conditions to surface and distance, and some others etc. that take priority over trainers. One could absolutely ignore trainers and jockeys and do just as good if not better. I do look at them and they can be helpful at times in certain situations such as an unknown factor in a race but their just another tool but not my primary tool nor should they be for any handicapper.

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Old 03-29-2016, 12:53 PM   #24
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Mitch,
oops I should have said".....by choosing value".
Sorry Bill, I'm feel I have hijacked your thread.
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Old 03-29-2016, 09:19 PM   #25
Bill V.
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Gl45

Your fine, I do not agree with you, but you have your opinion,
I thank Mitch , Tim , Mike and latekick. It really still is about the horse.
There are lots of things that go on with owners, trainers, Jockeys,
and their agents, To me I know what I am looking at with phase 1 readouts and the energy match up, All the other stuff about people and egos and favors and kickbacks, and magic potions, well I don't want to bet my money on it.
If a horse has the energy match up and the top TPR numbers, and is being ignored by the jockey trainer loving public I am betting on my readouts
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Old 03-30-2016, 10:28 AM   #26
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The key to this game is picking winners regardless of what they pay. Winners are the springboard of every bet. And their easier to pick than place horses or show horses. Absolutely any horse can get the show slot in a trifecta. The match-up greatly effect these slots along with numerous other reasons and especially form.

A DD as an example is easier to hit then a Ex. or Tri. and when there isn't a rolling DD you can create your own with a parlay. Even if a horse will pay $4.80 and is legit one needs to ask;"how can I make money out of this race." And it can be done. I'm always amazed at some of the payoffs with low paying winners. Players will demand certain odds and pass a horse like this which is OK but then they'll play EX or DD combinations that will pay $7.00 and put $6 into it. Not only demand a minimum you'll take for win but also demand a minimum you'll take for DD & Ex. We don't know the payoffs for Tri. or a P-3 but generally you can get an idea from the other slots.

By the way don't wait till the last minute to do this because you need time to look at payoffs. At about 5 minutes things don't change much so you should be working on it. Heck in some races going in you can be sure of what the public will do. Such as the upcoming Fl. Derby.

Also you need to know how strong that $4.80 horse is and if it gaps your other contenders. If he doesn't gap the others or stand out then you probably should wager cap your other top 2 horses. What you don't do is go looking at non-contenders because of odds.

The average horseplayer spends probably 95% of his time picking horses and gives little if any thought to betting. It deserves much more of every players attention. The springboard to success is winners that are easily found in your top 3 TPR and many other readouts in RDSS.

Spring into action,
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Old 03-30-2016, 08:07 PM   #27
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Very good points Mitch. I too have exs pay $40 to $50 with the low paying favorite on top. If however one cannot find an acceptable payoff in the pools they wish to invest in then a pass is in order. No one ever lost money passing a race.
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Old 03-31-2016, 09:22 AM   #28
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Your exactly correct LT1 and with todays racing we're not forced to play only one track etc. There are plenty of opportunities.

I have to admit one of my weaknesses is that after spending time doing a race they are very difficult to pass. This has lead me to look for other ways to profit from them which really upped my game.

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Old 03-31-2016, 05:12 PM   #29
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I love your way of looking at races . For me lately, the way I pick races is to open my TS account and see what track is running, and what race they are in . I download all tracks anyway so I know I have that card, if I see I have time before post time, I will work the race or maybe the next race coming up. Then I work the race and based on either the ml or the from the tote X ray if it's a current race, I with make my bet or pass. The frustrating part is this is it for me for the day. Maybe 1 or 2 races and from what ever track, So a model or profile is useless for this kind of handicapping , so I need to see how I can make money on betting so few races , Times change and techonogy is far more advanced, then in the early pirco days when everybody worked one card a day from the "home track"
I used to do this with Parx , but now I have just a good chance to bet race 5 from Parx as any other track
I could be betting a race from Gulfstream or Fairground or Santa Anita or GG.
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Old 03-31-2016, 06:09 PM   #30
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Mitch,
oops I should have said".....by choosing value".

No problem gl45 I understand, we're good.

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