Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Breeders' Cup > 2017
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

2017 Del Mar Nov 3 & 4

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-02-2017, 09:35 PM   #1
So Cal Al
So Cal Al
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: San Diego/ La Quinta
Posts: 214
Send a message via AIM to So Cal Al
DMR Friday Breeders Cup

Any thoughts on how to handle Race 6 and Race 8 with large fields and foreign horses. Some would suggest to wait for scratches and then pass each of them.
So Cal Al is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2017, 06:44 AM   #2
RichieP
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
Personally I'm passing the races where I cant get a handle on runners, the 2 you mentioned are passes.

I'm definitely playing against the favs in the 9th race Distaff. I'm on the #6 Forever Unbridled. OTE

Best of luck
Attached Images
 
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!"
RichieP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2017, 08:11 AM   #3
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 8,993
Races 6 &8 are pass races. In fact any race with more then 1 unknown factor should be passed.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2017, 11:21 AM   #4
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,852
If I recall rightly, this race is more often won by Euros and there are plenty.

However, I have had some great scores by simply comparing the Trackmaster SR versus Race Class rating (aka Timefom International ratings) for the Euros versus the North Americans, using the Original screen.

Doing this reveals the #2 Happily (117 SR from a 131 Race Class RC) a standout. A possibility is #10 September (with a 119 SR in a lesser calibre 103 RC race rating) but she is unproven at the distance. I'll add the best looking NA horse #11 Rushing Fall. The 7 and 8 could be underneath.

If I play the BC late Pick4, I have to come up with something, but for a single race wager, though it's not a prime bet for me, if there are any odds on those 2 Euros in particular, it could make for good entertainment.

Or -- PASS

Good luck!

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2017, 11:22 AM   #5
mick
Abiding Student
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
While I agree with Richie and Tim, here are my "recreational" Pick 4 tickets for races 6-9. Caveat bettor. Yes, I'm guessing a lot but they're cheaper than Powerball tickets.

Ticket A: 2, 10, 7, 11, 13 WT 3, 6 WT 6, 7 WT 4, 5 ($20)
Ticket B: 2, 10, 7 WT 3, 6 WT 6, 7 WT 2, 6 ($12)
__________________
mick

Illustrated Glossary
mick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2017, 11:22 AM   #6
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,852
I moved this thread to ... The 2017 Breeders Cup Forum.

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2017, 11:37 AM   #7
cigar
3-3-1 - 3-3-2
 
cigar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 394
Friday's Pick

R7 - A: Happily - Capla Temptress (my long shot) B: September - Rushing Fall
R8 - A: Cupid - Practical Joke - Post? B: More Spirt -Battle of Midway
R9 - A: Masar - James Garfield B: Untamed Domain - Voting Control
R10 A: Elate B: Able Tasman


Good luck with your selections.....................
cigar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2017, 12:08 PM   #8
So Cal Al
So Cal Al
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: San Diego/ La Quinta
Posts: 214
Send a message via AIM to So Cal Al
Ted:
I use your approach if I must play these races. In Race 6, I had September with a 113 class rating and a 119 SR as a possible play
So Cal Al is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2017, 12:23 PM   #9
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
Juvenile Colts Turf race:

The top two Euros on the New Pace Trackmaster ratings have won 6 of the last 9 races with two deep closers (non Euro) the next most prominent.

Euros 1 and 6, deep closer #4

Good luck today
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2017, 12:29 PM   #10
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
I would suggest you use the CR or CR+ depending on the version your using to determine the contenders. Then use a blend of the top 2 foreign with the top two U.S. for contenders. For the 5th contender I would use the 3rd highest foreign horse. This will give you the best of both worlds (ha ha) I believe the CR is better than Timeform SR because it contains 3 different rating and is a more complex rating rather than a single factor.

I also use the Timeform but adjust it, as they run higher than our SR's and their different for turf and dirt.


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 11-03-2017 at 12:34 PM.
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Breeder's Cup skews championship status Tim Y General Discussion 6 12-01-2016 03:12 PM
Breeders' Cup Past Races - Example Database / 2010 Example Database repaired Ted Craven RDSS2 / FAQ's 0 10-24-2013 10:52 AM
Breeders Cup winners Bill V. November Contest 4 11-06-2012 02:59 PM
Breeders' Cup 2012 Ted Craven 2012 1 10-30-2012 11:02 AM
Breeders Cup Marathon - Friday 11/6 RichieP Matchup Discussion 10 11-06-2009 06:21 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:18 PM.