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Old 09-16-2009, 12:11 AM   #1
For The Lead
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Why is the second call the "Early" call?

I thought I would throw this out there for open discussion just to see various peoples' view on the topic. Let's take two distances, 6f and 1 mile, even though it applies to any distance. I'm using these two distances just because the math is easy.

First, 1 mile. The second call (EPR) is at the 3/4 of a mile mark. That makes it easy. At that point in the race, the race is 3/4 or 75% OVER. Why would that be the "early" call?

Second, 6f. The second call (EPR) is at the 1/2 mark of the race. At that point the race is 66 2/3 or 66.67% OVER. Again, why would this be the "early" call?

In both of the above examples, the horses running 1st or 2nd at the second call (EPR) could have been 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, etc. at the FIRST CALL. Is this an "early" horse?

If these types of horses would be considered "early", then how would you classify the horses that were running 1st or 2nd at the FIRST CALL? Are not these horses the real "EARLY" horses?

By the way, the same idea holds true at other distances as well, not just at 6f or 1 mile.

Please, feel free to comment.
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Old 09-16-2009, 12:41 PM   #2
alydar_ David
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I'd have to agree. Calling those horses EP is lackadaisical at best. RER makes a lot more sense.

As long as we're talking semantics:

FOR THOSE WHO LOVE THE PHILOSOPHY OF AMBIGUITY, AS WELL AS THE IDIOSYNCRASIES OF ENGLISH:

Please enjoy and understand the following:


1. DON'T SWEAT THE PETTY THINGS AND DON'T PET THE SWEATY THINGS.

2. ONE TEQUILA, TWO TEQUILA, THREE TEQUILA, FLOOR.

3. ATHEISM IS A NON-PROPHET ORGANIZATION.

4. IF MAN EVOLVED FROM MONKEYS AND APES, WHY DO WE STILL HAVE MONKEYS AND APES?

5. THE MAIN REASON THAT SANTA IS SO JOLLY IS BECAUSE HE KNOWS WHERE ALL THE BAD GIRLS LIVE.

6. I WENT TO A BOOKSTORE AND ASKED THE SALESWOMAN, "WHERE'S THE SELF- HELP SECTION?" SHE SAID IF SHE TOLD ME, IT WOULD DEFEAT THE PURPOSE.

7. WHAT IF THERE WERE NO HYPOTHETICAL QUESTIONS?

8. IF A DEAF CHILD SIGNS SWEAR WORDS, DOES HIS MOTHER WASH HIS HANDS WITH SOAP?

9. IF SOMEONE WITH MULTIPLE PERSONALITIES THREATENS TO KILL HIMSELF, IS IT CONSIDERED A HOSTAGE SITUATION?

10. IS THERE ANOTHER WORD FOR SYNONYM?

11. WHERE DO FOREST RANGERS GO TO "GET AWAY FROM IT ALL?"

12. WHAT DO YOU DO WHEN YOU SEE AN ENDANGERED ANIMAL EATING AN ENDANGERED PLANT?

13. IF A PARSLEY FARMER IS SUED, CAN THEY GARNISH HIS WAGES?

14. WOULD A FLY WITHOUT WINGS BE CALLED A WALK?

15. WHY DO THEY LOCK GAS STATION BATHROOMS? ARE THEY AFRAID SOMEONE WILL CLEAN THEM?

16. IF A TURTLE DOESN'T HAVE A SHELL, IS HE HOMELESS OR NAKED?

17. CAN VEGETARIANS EAT ANIMAL CRACKERS?

18. IF THE POLICE ARREST A MIME, DO THEY TELL HIM HE HAS THE RIGHT TO REMAIN SILENT?

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21. WHAT WAS THE BEST THING BEFORE SLICED BREAD?

22. ONE NICE THING ABOUT EGOTISTS: THEY DON'T TALK ABOUT OTHER PEOPLE.

23. DOES THE LITTLE MERMAID WEAR AN ALGEBRA?

24. DO INFANTS ENJOY INFANCY AS MUCH AS ADULTS ENJOY ADULTERY?

25. HOW IS IT POSSIBLE TO HAVE A CIVIL WAR?

26. IF ONE SYNCHRONIZED SWIMMER DROWNS, DO THE REST DROWN TOO?

27. IF YOU ATE BOTH PASTA AND ANTIPASTO, WOULD YOU STILL BE HUNGRY?

28. IF YOU TRY TO FAIL, AND SUCCEED, WHICH HAVE YOU DONE?

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30. WHY ARE HEMORRHOIDS CALLED "HEMORRHOIDS" INSTEAD OF "ASSTEROIDS"?

31. WHY IS IT CALLED TOURIST SEASON IF WE CAN'T SHOOT THEM?

32. WHY IS THERE AN EXPIRATION DATE ON SOUR CREAM?

33. IF YOU SPIN AN ORIENTAL PERSON IN A CIRCLE THREE TIMES, DO THEY BECOME DISORIENTED?

34. CAN AN ATHEIST GET INSURANCE AGAINST ACTS OF GOD?
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Old 09-16-2009, 03:24 PM   #3
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Best laugh I've had in a long time. Thanks David.

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Old 09-16-2009, 04:18 PM   #4
Tim Y
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The second call is the KEYSTONE to understanding pace. PERIOD. If you want to call it chow call, the point at which the yogurt boils, or that part of the track where the 2nd part of any race begins, it doesn't matter: it still is the keystone to the whole enchilada.

Any slug can get lucky, break fast and run 2 or 3 furlongs, but it takes form, fitness and a edge over the field to move TO or AFTER the best 2nd call in the match up.
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Old 09-17-2009, 09:52 AM   #5
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"30." damn near killed me.

Then "33." finished me off!
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Old 09-17-2009, 02:36 PM   #6
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Before the topic gets too far a field

I have known for a long time, as have others I am sure, that a race is pretty much decided by the second call. That is to say, by the second call, the “players” have emerged. In most cases the winner is running 1st,2nd or 3rd at that point, with only the “official” final order yet to be determined.

I have done some quick research on 42,550 winners. These winners were NOT “cherry picked”. These are the winners of races from 4.5 furlongs up to 2 miles. These are the winners of races on all surfaces. Here are the results.

71% were running 1st,2nd or 3rd at the second call (no surprise, yet these winners could have been anywhere at the first call)
53% were running 1st or 2nd at the second call (and again, these winners could have been anywhere at the first call)
4% were running 1st at the second call after having been 3rd or worse at the first call. Hardly a big number.
Now……..
63% were running 1st,2nd or 3rd at the first call (not quite as good as the second call, but they didn’t get there from any other position, at any other call)
47% were running 1st or 2nd at the first call. This is almost HALF THE WINNERS! And unlike the second call, there was nowhere else these winners could have come from except where they were, 1st or 2nd.

Is there any value to the first call being the “early” call rather than the second call? Borrowing a tag line from Fox News, “we report, you decide”.
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Old 09-17-2009, 03:55 PM   #7
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Horses out front CONTROL the entire race PERIOD.

best part of the track, no traffic, CAUSE the pace to happen and are not passive partners in it, rider moves or doesn't move WHENEVER THEY PLEASE. Holding that many cards no wonder earlier horses do better.
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Old 09-17-2009, 06:42 PM   #8
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On dirt, usually.
But not so on turf and much poly.
The theory has a hole in it. If it were that simple, we would be seeing far more
wire jobs than we do.

Know your track.
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Old 09-17-2009, 08:23 PM   #9
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tom,
MNR 5.5f....horse in 5k open or lower.... 34.5% did wire the field
MNR 6f......horse in5k open or lower......35% did wire the field
The sample isn't big enough yet to categorize the results by a single class as nw2l, nw3l, nw4l,....etc
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Old 09-18-2009, 06:41 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gl45 View Post
tom,
MNR 5.5f....horse in 5k open or lower.... 34.5% did wire the field
MNR 6f......horse in5k open or lower......35% did wire the field
The sample isn't big enough yet to categorize the results by a single class as nw2l, nw3l, nw4l,....etc
Position means very very little without the yardstick of pace and how many other horses can contend early.

Inner Aqueduct has such an early bias that it stand alone. There are many EARLY horses winning there year end and year out, NOT on the lead.
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