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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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09-15-2013, 09:01 AM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 106
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From FTL's original post: "3 - eliminate any horse that does not have a "+" or "(+)" line at a similar distance and surface in the last 90 days."
What is a similar distance? Within 1 furlong, 1/2 furlong or more? With 4 distances covering a mile to 1 1/16th would you use any one of the distances as being similar. If the last line was 8.5 and a -0- type race but todays race is 8.2 and the 2nd line back was a 8.2f race with a (+) both at the same class, would you pass the horse because of the -0- race or go back to a race at the exact distance and a (+) race? When I last played Finger Lakes they only had 1 mile, 1.70 and 1 1/16 races. Few of them were 1 1/16th. Now they have added 1.40 and from all races run this year, every distance is slightly different in "my" profiles. Mile races are seldom run (only 8 races before yesterday) and show 1Call and FX to have the highest win %. 1.40 races, Turn Time and EP. At 1.70 there are 4 categories tied for top honors, final time, average pace, sustained pace and FX slightly higher. Finally 1 1/16 is still not raced often and all but 2 categories are tied for top honors. What is a bit surprising is at all these distances, last fraction is not among the best categories. This comes from using the winning horse and his ranking in the various categories. I have his winning %'s for ranking #1, #2 and #3 separately and then 1 + 2 and 1+2+3. I try to rank 5 horses per race and any horse not ranked would still be entered as a 6 in each category so every race run gets recorded. |
09-15-2013, 10:34 AM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana
Posts: 334
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FTL and Bill, now you guys are in my wheelhouse!
Do you have a source for those odds based stats, or just from your own database? I've been charting results for about a year for a number of tracks, but the process is extremely time consuming. Worth it, but man it takes a LOT of manual spreadsheet time due to password and encryption of pdf charts.
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09-15-2013, 10:36 AM | #13 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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What if
Hi DSD ( I hate screen names )
As far as your question about distances,In your example above I would need to know something. Is the race a zero / than why? 1. Is the only reason the 8.5 race was a zero race because of the 8.5 distance. What I mean is, lets say in your example the horse shows wins at the 8.5 distance down in its past performance races. One of the valid excuses from the pace line manual is Wrong Distance. But I would need to look at the horses history Every race is different. That is why there is nothing in the valid excuses list from the pace line manual about more or less than 1 furlong The question is best answered by " is this race comparable?" Has the horse won or ran a + race at this distance in the past ? In FTL's example race a big key to the good price for the winner. is that the 1.6/1 ML favorite has no comparable pace line Bill |
09-15-2013, 10:41 AM | #14 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Do
Quote:
I do my database the old pen and paper way in a $1.00 notebook It takes me just a few minutes as soon as the results charts appear When I have some spare time, usually in the AM before the races start, I then enter the data into excel, by typing in the numbers I find the kinetic chore of doing the work more rewarding then automatically downloading. but then again I'm not everybody and I only do 1 track. |
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09-15-2013, 11:14 AM | #15 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Posts: 624
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Quote:
Do you have any stats on when a 20/1 places or shows & what the average payout & odds were? Thanks!
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Terry |
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09-15-2013, 12:16 PM | #16 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
I don't pay any attention to place or show stats so I just look at the winners. I do make place and show bets but just like Doc says I look for horses who have all the characteristics of a win horse but just happen to place or show. Bill |
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09-15-2013, 12:18 PM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Posts: 624
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Thanks Bill.
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Terry |
09-15-2013, 05:46 PM | #18 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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09-15-2013, 11:12 PM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,042
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I believe that all of the points being mentioned are valid. Myself I don't lock myself into a time cut off. For example yesterday at Parx r1 the winner was off more than 90 but was my #1 pick and won paying $28. Although I can see FTLs point even if you decide to eliminate the horse for win you shouldn't throw him out all together if you are an exacta or tri player. Also I've noticed that turf horses tend to win or place more then dirt horses off of 90 or more day layoffs. I do agree with the 20-1 ml guideline. Oh and I'm in the best of the last 3 dist & surface camp.
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09-16-2013, 12:10 AM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana
Posts: 334
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For a horse running early (is that his history?) he gave up an unusual amount of ground between 1st and 2nd call to put himself in the position of heading the other early to win.
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