Guide Me

[DontSayDont]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

Over the years I have talked with MANY people using pace handicapping who EXCEL at certain distances that are ODD to the rest of us (ONE follows 4.5 furlong races all over North America).

ANY distance is subject to the EXACT same evaluations:standard e/l rankings, standard final fraction, EP .....whatever you model them on. Find consistent factors, MODEL,,,it is just that simple.

Don't leave out distances because you think they are impossible. I assure you they are NOT. For example: marathons just about always fall down to SP and LP rankings after you see how far the projected pace setter can go.

The originator of this thread is new to the methodology and certainly has a racing program that is different from the DRF. I think it would be reasonable to think it would be easier for him to learn pace handicapping without burdening him with some tricky distances.

I do play Finger Lakes and there are a lot of 4 ½-5 furlong races especially early in the year. With points of call and fractional times not being equal it may be difficult (not impossible) to try to work with those distances as he is beginning to learn.

From Modern Pace Handicapping by Tom Brohamer: 5 and 5 ½ furlong races are essentially all-out dashes and are best handicapped from final time. The final fractions are shorter than the internal fractions, and if employed in a fps (feet per second) pace rating scheme, tend to distort the ratings in favor of late runners. Note: Mine: He does not even mention 4 ½ furlong races.

Also from MPH- In races over 1 1/16, pace ratings become highly unreliable. That’s not to say pace is not an important factor, but the ratings are suspect and unrepresentative. In longer races, stamina, class, and pace STRATEDGY should be the focal points for the handicapper.

The software MPH-Pro does not include the shorter distances and some of the marathon distances, IIRC.

In The New Pace Makes The Race book by Tom Hambleton and Dick Schmidt, their pace ratings charts start at 5 ½ furlongs and end at 10 furlongs.

I don’t doubt you may know someone who plays other distances proficiently and have likely put in a lot of hours learning the nuances of those distances.

I question whether or not it is where someone new to this site and wanting to learn the methodology should start.

Ray

[Tim Y]

LET HIM DECIDE that road he wants to take

I have NEVER found anyone who catches on and "gets it" right away. However I have found that people learn in different fashions often coming up with variations I never would have considered.

Modeling is FUNDAMENTAL to the method, always has been. Anyone who wants to be competent must learn that and learn it early on or frustration will overcome them. That comes from TRYING to teach the method now to others since the late 80's when understanding the diffuse nature of the available evaluations was not very clear at all requiring each of us to find their own path to understanding it.

This SINGULARITY of instruction modus diminishes ones ability to comprehend on their own.

Micheal Pizzola in Pace makes the Race, p. 158. There are no rules To those who must have mechanical approach, I can only tell you that you are setting yourself to mere competence at BEST.

[Tim Y]

Trick I learned as a undergraduate: Go to MULTIPLE SOURCES when advancing into a new instructional area and FIND the source that best relates to your understanding of the subject matter. You may find that it may take 4 or 5 different sources to learn the breadth of what you need.

Your "textbook" (origin of information) is not very clear: find another one. Many studies of how we teach and how we learn show that when learning and teaching styles are at odds, the students do not get the instruction they need in their way of understanding it. THEY need to find instruction in the way THEIR learning curve accepts.

Some understand by rote, other by comparison, still other by diagrams or mnemonics. There is NO ONE WAY to teach or to learn anything other than what is chosen eclectically by the student.

[Tim Y]

ultra short sprints VARY from course to course and ODDLY run sustained at many a course, very early at others. TRACK specific no generalities.

[Tim Y]

SLOW early paces of race will be SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW the standard % median that is NORMAL for that distance.

SLOW is a relative term. SLOW for sprints might weigh in at 67% but in a grass route it could be in 65% range. RARELY, however, you can see that a ON PACE animal might have the chance to go a long way, IF they can get away with a "pace setting" slowing of the pace of the race JUST LIKE War Emblem did in his Illinois Derby before that performance the first Saturday in May. He got out early, slowed it down and had a lot left late......Just like his Illinois Derby suggested.

No stress early, no exhaustion of any of the normal pacesetters, gives the field then a skewed (POSITIVELY) extra BOOST later NOTHING like the Mahl 2:1 ratio would in a pace of race NORMAL for the distance.

It is NOT the absolute clocking of the pace, but, as we all learned in the program ENERGY, their ratio relative to the entire pace of the race that should be viewed as the OUTLIER.

[Kris R]

Hello all... I have been into a lot of good reads lately.. well the way I handicap the race here is somehow similar to the matchup.. i use gut feeling or instinct to select contenders by looking at the fractional imes and beaten lengths as presented in the race program..

this is how i handicap a race...
1. i check the condition of the horse based on the beaten lengths in its last race and for me there should be not more than 10 lengths that a horse is beaten in the (1Fr+2Fr) or (1Fr+3Fr) or (2Fr+3Fr) for me to qualify a horse
2. then I check their fractional times and compare it against each other to cut down my selections
3. then visualize how the race will unfold.. so i can choose my final contender/s
4. then i use my spreadsheet to counter check my selections

Anyways, reading articles about the methodology.. I somehow managed to make a spreadsheet that i can use and correct the presentation of the fractional times in the racing form here in the philippines... now I can pace handicap correctly...

before learning about this site and it's stuffs... this is what i do...
take note: i dont use velocities before.... i use only time...

(1Fr+2Fr)/2=agility time
(1Fr+3Fr)/2=strength time
(2Fr+3Fr)/2=constitution time
(agility time+3fr)/2=power agility time
(strength time+2Fr)/2=power strength time
(constitution time+1Fr)/2=power constitution time

then i run down on the results using Median +/- 1 to have my final selection

and to my surprise after lots and lots of reading.. i realized that i have been using EP FX HID and SP a long long time but in a different way.. now i have finally corrected my approach and use velocities in my computations...

KUDOS to you ALL

by the way anyone amongst you guys using Median in analyzing the methodology... because I dont rank the results of the methodology... i use Median +/- .5 and +/- .1 to lock in my selection... try it..

[mowens33]

Kris, thanks for the post! I like your approach.

Question: last race 10 length hows that been working for you? Do you watch the race if you have questions?

I use median energy all the time as key factor to my track profile for all distances.

Thanks again, Mike

[Kris R]

Originally Posted by mowens33

Kris, thanks for the post! I like your approach.

Question: last race 10 length hows that been working for you? Do you watch the race if you have questions?

I use median energy all the time as key factor to my track profile for all distances.

Thanks again, Mike

1. Yes I only use the last race to pre qualify a horse based on the beaten lengths... I make it a rule to my self that a horse is not in condition if it is beaten by 10 lengths in (1Fr+2Fr) or (1Fr+3Fr) or (2Fr+3Fr)

It's working better and better....

Especially now when I run the data in the spreadsheet... Velocities it's awesome...

By the way use the weight carried by the horse to gauge it's momentum ...
Multiply the weight with 2Fr (velocity)

All ...

[Kris R]

2. yes I watch the races and race replays all the time.. trip handicapping

I also watch the horses when they are presented to see their condition at the race day itself.. shiny furs... not sweaty.. relaxed muscles.. smooth movement... bright wide active eyes.. the tail with regards on how it wags... even the tongue and ears for me it shows readiness and eagerness to run

[MikeB]

Originally Posted by Kris R

I also watch the horses when they are presented to see their condition at the race day itself.. shiny furs... not sweaty.. relaxed muscles.. smooth movement... bright wide active eyes.. the tail with regards on how it wags... even the tongue and ears for me it shows readiness and eagerness to run

For more on horse physicality, watch this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15ujGDSVRT8

I find it very hard to get much information about this unless actually at the track. And the paddock is much more important than the post parade.