RDSS strategies

[mrhug]

I PMed this to Ted and he said it would be a good topic. I think this will help beginners like myself to start using RDSS more effectively while learning the methodology. I will try to put in a couple examples.
Thanks to everyone in advance.

Ted
Sorry to keep bothering you, but I am really trying to use RDSS correctly along with doing a lot of reading about the Methodology. There is a ton of information and it gets a little confusing some times. I have discovered that basically RDSS will give you the winner if you put in the correct pace lines, and I am getting pretty good at getting the winner in the top 3. However, I am having trouble getting the winner out of the 3. I would love to have some strategies to use with RDSS (might be a good topic for the forum). Also, I would love to know a strategy to find the place horse in RDSS.
Thanks
Melvin

[Ted Craven]

Melvin,

In our private correspondence I suggested we only use your readouts, your line selections, in this exercise, and concentrate on wagering strategies given the analysis you came up with.

In this example, the classic top ranked, low odds favourite. RDSS thinks the favourite #8 is worthy, so does everyone else: its merits are obvious and probably properly priced. It loses about 2/3rd of the time, perhaps a little less, approaching even odds.

2 strategies: EITHER you accord that horse the Win pool and seek value elsewhere, for example the exacta pool - OR you Hide (or ignore) that horse because it is unbettable to Win and, over many events, will not return sufficient to cover when it loses.

Your top 3 horses off BL/BL cost $12 in a 3 horse exacta box, which here returns $50.20, a rather surprising 3-1 odds equivalent.

In the Win pool, if you 'Hide' (or ignore, or designate Secondary, in RDSS2), you have a 2 horse Win wager on your next 2 (the survivors from the Top 3) a 9/2 and a 32-1 (perhaps splitting the unit on the 32-1 between Win and Place).

The favourite you hide for win, you include back in in an exacta.

The decision process about when to hide the favourite and when to respect it is one of the most difficult to make. Even when the favourite appears to win all day (i.e. yesterday at Finger Lakes), it will run out once in the day. Can betting against it until it comes in, that day, be financially sound? Are some tracks (at some times) carding less competitive races, where some horses are clear standouts? A regular study of recent results helps clarify this, and maybe will suggest caution.

A lot of the time, you just don't know when a favourite will run out. I like it when a low odds favourite (say <= 2-1) is NOT many steps above the next horse on BLBL, e.g. when they are within 1 point (given sound paceline selection). Even better when it is NOT top ranked at all. These constitute vulnerable favourites - who will still beat you, but make up at least their fair share of those who will lose 2/3 of the time, making your next ranked horses even better win bets, or members of an exacta box.

In this race, I note that the top 4 horses resulted in the Tri, and the top 5 the Super.

The races where the favourite is obviously vulnerable can be great races to bet against them. From you readouts, this was not one of those races, hence one where you need to establish, in your betting records, what your Win betting success rate (and comfort level) in such circumstances is, and thus consider Place or Exacta pools.

Another strategy is to hedge the #8 to get back all or a part of what you bet and bet the rest of your Win bet unit on your other horse, the winning #2. Of a $10 Win bet unit, $4 bet on the #8 gets you back most of your $10 and $5 breaks you a bit better than even. While the remaining $6 or $5 on your other horse makes you a nice Win pool profit.

Some ideas. I know others will have other ideas, and caveats.

Let's stick to using the Analysis supplied, rather than suggesting alternate pacelines or contenders.

Ted

[shoeless]

Ted,

How would you anaylize the above screens to see who you would play?

I had suggested to Ted that he should have a beginners section.

Jeff

[Ted Craven]

Er, I thought that was what my reply above was about.

Based on Melvin's readouts, personally, I would have bet the 2-5 to win (with Place money on the #5) and boxed the 8-2-5 in an exacta.

I haven't looked at the race in RDSS.

Ted

[shoeless]

I was thinking about more of a detailed analysis of the readouts of why you would go with those horses,my mistake sorry.

[Ted Craven]

No worries Jeff.

In this thread, I would let Melvin explain his paceline selection strategy, analysis methods if he felt like it. He said he was getting good enough at getting the winner in his top 3 and that what he was seeking was to try to gain insight into wagering strategies (I thought). So I don't want to divert his thread.

But, I'd be happy in another thread to do something like Bill V has been doing recently, describing his decision process at each step along the way. I'll try something this weekend.

Ted

[Bill V.]

Hi Ted

I just put something together

Just as you posted this

[Bill V.]

I posted it down in Old Sartin

Field to Bets

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...93&postcount=1

Bill

[rmath]

Melvin, Teds explanation is exactly how Doc would have bet this race.
Hide your low odds horse and bet the next two.
If you are getting 70 to 80% in you top three you are well on your way to making a good profit. Keep on reading and working as many races as you can.
Good Luck

[froggy]

Melvin,

The best thing I ever did was to take a picture of all of my BL/BL screens and Results Charts and put them in a three ring binder and after a period of time mine them for information.

For instance in the last 6 days at Aqu I did 47 races.
Just $2 bet on just the top horse resulted in 19 wins @ average mutuel of $9.48 for an ROI of $1.88 with a win rate of 40%
I didn't do that well because I tried to out guess RDSS.
Like in the last 3 days I bet 25 three horse exacta for a total of $300 with a return of $257.20.
The one that I didn't bet because have any confidence in or the balls to pull the trigger paid $631.

The secret that you are looking for is in your own records.
That is where you handicap yourself and RDSS.

Don't worry about the place horse just find the win horse and after that everything else will fall into place.

Without records you don't win.
With records you can find yourself.

Have at it and go pull the trigger.

Froggy