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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 07-29-2017, 05:50 AM   #31
For The Lead
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FTL and Bill thanks you cleared that up

Now you made me think of another race that gives me trouble

Allowance ranks is "non-winners of a race other than maiden, claiming, or state bred" also non winners of 2 other than

What type of horses should I be looking at that would fit at this level


Jeff
NON WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED


Ok, so what is the logical interpretation of this condition?
Let’s look at what qualifies for the first part of the condition, “non winners of a race other than maiden”. What horses would be eligible? Obviously, only horses that have only beat maidens.
Since this is an allowance where horses are not eligible to be claimed, it stands to reason that it was intended for horses that broke their maiden versus maiden special weights. Again, a race where the horse cannot be claimed. In reality, many of these horses run and run and run, but never get the job done. However, they do turn in good efforts running 2nd and/or 3rd . For that reason, many times these horses are the favorite or made low odds because of those performances in their next race. At some point in time, after many failures, the owners of such horses finally reach the conclusion that their horse is not as good as they hoped and move the horse down to the claiming ranks. Since the horse has not established any real value by beating anything other than maidens, the trick is where to place them in the claiming ranks. The worse thing for the horse is to be placed in high value claimers where it will probably continue to fail. Horses like these learn to do one thing...LOSE!


Now let’s look at the “other than...claiming, starter or state bred” part because they are the horses that are eligible to run even though they have won more than 1 race. For everyone reading this I will challenge you to decide the following for yourself. What is better, a horse that is 1 for 20 that has never beat anything except maidens or a horse that is 10 for 28 and has demonstrated it is capable of beating fields of horses even those those horses were claiming, starter or state bred horses?
I prefer horses that have demonstrated they can win races. Even though these horses have only beat claimers etc., they have established they have value. Moreover, they have learned to WIN!

Having said all that, it doesn’t mean you run right out and bet only the claimers in these races. If you find a horse that broke its’ maiden at first asking or shortly thereafter and is now coming into this race, and especially if the horse is being bet down, that may be a horse to give serious consideration to. What you are looking for is the 1 for 15 or 1 for 20 horse that is being bet down because it has run 2nd and/or 3rd in “allowance” races and the other horses are “claimers”, which most people feel are inferior.


NON WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED

Take everything I just said above and throw it out. That kind of thinking will not serve you well once you hit this condition. It may seem like a small thing, after all it’s 1 race or 2 races, how much difference can there be? My advice is, try it at your own peril. Claimers will not do as well at this condition.

At all times you have to evaluate the horses you have in front of you. It is also best to have an understanding of how racing works.
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Old 07-29-2017, 12:31 PM   #32
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FTL

Thanks very much for the explanation and you have proved the
point that you can teach a old dog new tricks.

I would mainly use conditions when they are used in the cheaper claiming races such as the 3 horse going from open company to a condition race.

I see you had mentioned the Energy program is there anything you
can remember that would be helpful in using it.


Jeff
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Old 07-29-2017, 05:37 PM   #33
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FTL and Bill

I just want to thank you both, reminds me of the old VDC Messenger
days.


Jeff
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Old 07-29-2017, 06:04 PM   #34
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Thank you, Jeff
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Old 07-29-2017, 06:52 PM   #35
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FTL

Thanks very much for the explanation and you have proved the
point that you can teach a old dog new tricks.

I would mainly use conditions when they are used in the cheaper claiming races such as the 3 horse going from open company to a condition race.

I see you had mentioned the Energy program is there anything you
can remember that would be helpful in using it.


Jeff
Just the usual.

Use good contenders and good pacelines.

And remember the old computer saying. GARBAGE IN....GARBAGE OUT!
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Old 07-30-2017, 09:54 AM   #36
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Old 08-25-2017, 12:09 AM   #37
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Am I the only one who noticed that...

One of the horses listed in the Del Mar Result Chart that Bill V. posted had post time odds of 0.00?
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Old 08-25-2017, 07:44 AM   #38
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That horse was declared a nonstarter as he was held at the start
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Old 08-25-2017, 11:12 PM   #39
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That horse was declared a nonstarter as he was held at the start
My thanks for the clarification. If I might prevail upon you with a few follow-up questions?
1. Who exactly declares the horse a nonstarter? Is it the jockey, stewards, other?
2. If you have a straight wager on a horse that's declared a nonstarter, can you get your money back? Or do you just kiss your cabbage goodbye?
3. If you have a horse singled in a multi-race exotic and its declared a nonstarter, do you get your money back? Or does the track replace it with another horse (betting favorite)? Or do you suck it up and tear up the tickets?
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Old 08-26-2017, 09:07 AM   #40
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My thanks for the clarification. If I might prevail upon you with a few follow-up questions?
1. Who exactly declares the horse a nonstarter? Is it the jockey, stewards, other? Stewards
2. If you have a straight wager on a horse that's declared a nonstarter, can you get your money back? Yes, you'll be refunded your bet.Or do you just kiss your cabbage goodbye?
3. If you have a horse singled in a multi-race exotic and its declared a nonstarter, do you get your money back? Or does the track replace it with another horse (betting favorite)? Or do you suck it up and tear up the tickets? Your need to know how your track works on this one.
If it is a non-starter in the first race of a multi-race bet, you'll most likely get your money refunded. If it is in a leg of the multi-race bet, then some times they make a consolation payoff or put you on the favorite for that race.
When in doubt, take your ticket to a teller and they can tell you how that situation is covered.
Ray
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