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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 08-09-2017, 03:23 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
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Arlington Million day ideas

For a lot of us the multiple marathon races at Arlington are fun to watch, but hard to handicap, largely due to many foreign entries without any way to easily compare their form to the American entrants.

There will be five graded races ranging from 9 furlongs to 13.5 furlongs on the turf and even though I can use the marathon method for US horses, there is no easy way to rate the Euros.

However, I have tracked the Breeders Cup turf races and found a method that helps eliminate some of the confusion. If you have the New Pace module in RDSS you can look at the races this way.

This is last years BC Filly and Mare Turf race @ 10 furlongs on turf. The first screen shot is the Adjust SR screen and you can see that at least 5 foreign horses have no adjusted rating because they have not run in the U.S. However, when you choose the Trackmaster SR option all the Euros get ratings.

The top 4 Late horses were the 13-3-11-8. the top 4 finishers were the 11-8-4-3 with the 8 being the only US based runner. The winner was the #33 Euro Queens Trust (#11).
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This is last years BC Turf; Several of the horses were European based, but had either run in previous BC races or the Arlington Million day races. In this case the only Euro without a U. S. race was the 7, but the 3-4-6-10 and 12 had one or more races in the U. S. and thus had Adjusted SR numbers.

But again, look at the Trackmaster info. the #1 Early Horse was Highland Reel by 9 pts! - won wire to wire; the top Late horses were the 4-10-8-6. The horses actually ran 12-4-10-7.

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What's the point you might ask. Using the Trackmaster info, in the last 9 BC Filly and Mare Turf races the winners have been in the top 3 US horses 7 times and in the top 3 Euros 4 times. Obviously some of the Euros had enough US races to be top 3 in their US races also.

In the BC Turf's last 9 races 5 winners were top 3 Euros, 2 winners were top 3 U.S., 2 winners were top 4 Euros (in one of these races there were only 2 U.S. horses entered.) Only in 2014 was the winner not in this group.

At least it should help winnow out a few of the non contenders.

Good luck watching and wagering this weekend.

Last edited by Bill Lyster; 08-09-2017 at 03:25 PM.
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Old 08-09-2017, 06:10 PM   #2
RichieP
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Awesome work Bill. Thank you very much for taking the time to share this!
These Marathons are brutal
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"Fast horses win races Rich!" - "Hat" Bradshaw
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Old 08-09-2017, 06:54 PM   #3
Bill Lyster
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These races usually have a lot of entrants, but looking hard at the best late runners in the Adjusted SR and combining that with the best late runners using the Trackmaster info you may or may not get some overlaps. In many cases some of the horses will have US races and will come up in both sorts, lessening the number of serious contenders.

I have a particular prejudice in these races because Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore, either together or singly have won a lot of these types of races. Did anyone watch the Ascot Races a month or more ago? Those two guys cleaned up and usually at a price, but not always. I think Moore won 8 of the graded races during the 4 days.
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Old 08-09-2017, 07:19 PM   #4
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Moore won 6 and O'Brien won 6 (two without Moore) in 5 days.
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Old 08-10-2017, 10:18 AM   #5
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Bill, one of the things I normally do in a turf rout is I look at the (get my contenders first) segment screen, than what I am looking for is a horse that’s making a good F2 move and combined that with the TS + F3 with more weight on the F2. I find that it is a very good indicator (along with TE, BL/BL, %Med) of who is going to win today’s race.

So with that being said I was curious as to what you segment looked like.

Regards, Mike

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Old 08-10-2017, 12:45 PM   #6
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Mike,

For Saturday it may not make a difference while trying to gauge the Euros, but if they have raced in the U. S. even if it was last year, I will use the line, assuming they were competitive in those races. It costs a lot to ship from Europe so if they have done it before, they must think that the horses are ready to go. For instance, I used Highland Reel's race from Arlington the previous year to help evaluate last years BC Turf.

One other note about the Euros. Every couple of years or so, they have a drought and the mile and 10f times come close to US times. When that happens you have a better gauge of what they might do once they get on US terra firma.

Everyday wise, mostly I play the West Coast and old research showed the top 3 F2 horses winning more than their share of races, as long as I kept the top 3 early EPR and late LPR in the TPR mix. I've also tracked TPR info by distance so I know that its rare to have a positive TPR in any turf route and as the distances get longer, the TPR gets more negative.

Just from memory at SA a -6 TPR is about the earliest mile; -12 TPR is early for 8.5f and somewhere in the -20 to -30 is normal for longer races. So in a perfect world I would like to see a top 3 F2 horse with a qualifying (in my mind) TPR.
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Old 08-10-2017, 12:57 PM   #7
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Bill, I always enjoy reading and learning from your post "Excellent Stuff".

Mike
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Old 08-13-2017, 01:28 PM   #8
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Here is what happened at Arlington

Won by the 2; the #6 Euro was second at a price;

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Won by the 7, then 2, then 1
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Since there were no Euros here; the Adjust SR screen showing the 7 with an advantage and the 2 with a good closing kick.
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Won by the #1, then 4 and then 5. The last two had mostly Euro races but had some good US races as well.
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Won by the 10,6 2nd (pricey Euro that must be improving?), 3 3rd (Euro)
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