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Old 05-11-2018, 10:14 AM   #11
Lt1
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Hi John and Mick. I like to take the time to congratulate both of you. You both reached out and listen to the ideas from several members[for whatever that was worth]. Then you both did something many folks won't do you began to keep records. By doing so both of you have identified both your strong and weak areas. Now really the only thing left to do is maintain your course while working on your weak points. I like to point out that it's okay to pick a day to have a little fun by trying some of things your having trouble with. The Doc endorsed that idea. Use a small bankroll, say something like $50,and make some small fun bets. I find it helps break up the daily, sometime, boring routine handicapping. Wishing both continued good skill.
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Old 05-11-2018, 01:09 PM   #12
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I use to play a lot of Tri. and was decent at it. Then after giving them and returning much later they were killing me. I have absolutely no idea what was different etc.


With those vertical bets most give back their winnings through poor money management, they overextend their bankroll (extension) attempting to hit it. First with any vertical bet you have to stay with your contenders i.e. the Ex., trying to get that worse horse in the field is just about impossible, adding those unqualified contenders causes many more combination. Hence when you do get one you're at best making up for your losses. Pretty much stick to your top 4 contenders and among them it's just plain stupid to box them at $24. When you do that you're saying the 4th choice has as much chance as the 1st choice. REALLY!!! That seldom is the case and really is an indication of poor analysis, uncertainty and you should probably pass the race. You need to know the win percentages of your final analysis and contenders or roughly so. If anything maybe tier your bets such as $ 3 for 1 /2-3-4-, $2 for 2 / 1-3- 4 and $1 for 3 / 1-2-4, Total cost $18. Here you're designing a bet to capitalize on both your handicapping and known percentage of contenders or what one's records determine. When that # 3 wins usually they go off at higher odds and even with a $1 bet profits can be made. Ditto for DD.


Lastly this does not mean you put $18 in every bet. You must look at the payoffs about 5 minutes from post time and eliminate low paying combinations. If you're at the track allow more time for ticket machines and even more for tellers with their long lines. Try to look and pick a line with a TV screen you can watch. Many races you play won't be an investment the $18, playing those combinations that'll pay $7, $12 etc., are just plain unprofitable even if you do hit. This cuts the extension further. If after looking at the payoffs and your bet is a total play of $12 than only those combination that will double your money. I.e. $24 should be purchased.


This all may sound difficult but it really isn't. I write all my combination down on a piece of paper and scratch or draw a line through the unprofitable combo's (underlays same as very low paying favorites) then make my bet. When betting I get my 1st choice combo's in first then the 2ne best horse combos etc. just in case of a lock up or shut out.

Whether an Ex. or DD the combo's and the procedures are the same.


For the Tri. I would add two more contenders, most preferably the next two contenders however the way you get your contenders, not just any horse. That all button is a killer. Now we can't see the Trifecta payoffs but you can get an excellent idea from the Ex. payoff, if checking the Ex, matrix (payoffs) and their decent than you know the Tri. will be decent. Ditto for a P 3, if the DD is good than the P3 will be, otherwise don't play it.


One variation I use is if one of my top 3 is overlooked by the masses and the odds are very good I'll increase my bets on those combinations to take advantage of my handicapping and the mistake by the crowd, also that either by the matchup or current form one of my top two runs out which frequently happens plus their normally underlays.


This may sound complicated but it really isn't, I just do this by synaptic response or automatically. If you repeat this enough it becomes the norm, Ditto for contenders and other handicapping stuff. At times based on the odds I know or can tell the payoff will be good and don't need the exact payoff. That also gives me more time to determine other payoff etc. Simply if in your top 3 one is 10-1 then all those combo's with it will be OK then just review the rest.


If you try to employ this on 10 races in a day it may be difficult. Like a turtle steady and deliberate gets you to the finish line. Doing only one or two races a day until you get good with it then increase. No different than someone learning to drive a car, they aren't going to jump into a car and go on a 500 mile road trip, at least not successfully. A consistent approach is very important and when you learn something reinforce it till it becomes automatic. It is very hard to overcome bad habits but not mission impossible.


In the military there are intermediate objectives before the main objective. Start on them first. Develop a logical order from easiest to the more difficult etc. Winners first, then DD etc., Employ your choices based on their capabilities and limitations. More on your number 1 choice etc.


Luck is preparation meeting destiny,


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 05-11-2018 at 01:28 PM.
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Old 05-12-2018, 10:09 AM   #13
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Great post, Mitch44. Let me add that statistically, exacta combinations with horses going off less than 2-1, especially with those low-odds horses on top, are generally not worth betting. In addition, if you can eliminate one or more horses going off at 7-2 or less as non-contenders in your exacta combinations you are probably betting with +EV (positive expected value).

Richard
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Old 05-12-2018, 12:32 PM   #14
Dorianmode
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Agree with all the above. I keep models for the 5 final resulted positions. I have positive records for exacta, trifecta and perfecta. It sounds like a lot of work, but it really isn't. I made an Excel command button linked to a macro that finds the 1 through 5 and puts them in the right place (finds the last filled row and puts the numbers in the first (next) empty row). So keeping a record for each of the 5 takes about 5 seconds total (literally). I'd be happy to share the programming. Something unexpected that happened, was my exacta and trifecta profiles are also helpful in win betting ... so I check them, pre-race wagering, also.
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Old 05-12-2018, 01:23 PM   #15
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Hey There

How are you

I was just reading this thread and came upon your doings about record keeping and I would be very interested in the way you have captured your records

Lawrence
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Old 05-21-2018, 09:34 PM   #16
stugots119
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Great post! I was wondering, do most of you prefer playing top 1 or 2 horses to WPS with DD and maybe some Pick 3's? I think its time for me to forget about wagering on the Exacta and Trifecta. What do you think? Thanks JS
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Old 05-22-2018, 09:22 AM   #17
Mitch44
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stugots119:


Master win betting first and only then move to DD etc. Strive for 65% win with two horse betting. If you can't get winners then you can't get DD or anything else for that matter.


Mitch44
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Old 05-22-2018, 09:42 AM   #18
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Thanks Mitch
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