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Old 05-06-2017, 03:52 AM   #1
omar
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Cool Omar's 2017 Kentucky Derby Analysis

For you newer horse players remember this- we avid players play hundreds of races during the year so to me it's just another race, albeit a good betting race because of all the novices that only play this one race each year . So remember not to bet your last dollar on this race because you still have 2 more races after this race to try and get your money back if you should lose the derby!!! Here's my take on this year's derby.One more point-Energy not expended early Will Always show up late. After surveying the usual entrants, I always try to sort out the speed horses first. Now on everyone's list is Always Dreaming, who'll probably go off the favorite anyhow, ran real good in his last race-maybe too good, has 2nd sustained pace #, 54.95,has not shown that he can rate, out of a sire who also couldn't rate nor go the distance. Unfortunately for him there are faster horses in this race to compromise his chances: Battle of Midway(this horse couldn't win even if Charlton Heston was riding him);Fast and Accurate; Classic Empire and Gormley both of them proven they can rate effectively; and Hence, off super fast fractions in the Sunland Derby(THIS YEARS KEY RACE FOR THE TRIPLE CROWN) has shown a propensity TO CLOSE; and the ever consistent STATE OF HONOR.
Why a key race? Irap won the Bluegrass, Hedge Fund missed by a head in the Illinois derby, Conquest Mo Money missed by 1/2 length to Classic Empire in the Arkansas derby. Why this horse is skipping the derby is beyond my comprehension. I heard the connections were saving 50k by supplementing him to the Preakness instead of the derby. I guess they never heard of LINKAGE- 1982 BLUE GRASS WINNER. The trainer Henry Clark from Maryland wanted to win the prestigious Preakness run in his home state announces he'S skipping the derby in favor of the Preakness- well guess what, he doesn't win the Preakness and loses the Belmont stakes. HEY! WHEN YOUR HORSE IS READY TO RUN-RUN HIM !!!!!!!!!
Back to the race. After watching today's Oaks it's a reminder that it takes ONLY 2 TO TANGO and set it up for the closers.Through the 2nd Call I see the following horses, in descending order: PRACTICAL JOKE, CLASSIC EMPIRE, STATE OF HONOR, FAST AND ACCURATE,HENCE, GORMLEY, BATTLE OF MIDWAY, TAPWRIT AND ALWAYS DREAMING. The horses making the biggest moves during the 2nd Fraction are PRACTICAL JOKE, TAPWRIT AND GUNNEVERA.
The horse's with the best 3rd Fraction closing ability are: IRISH WAR CRY, GUNNEVERA, McCRAKEN, ALWAYS DREAMING AND TAPWRIT. The horse's with the best SUSTAINED ENERGY: PRACTICAL JOKE (55.78), ALWAYS DREAMING (54.95), CLASSIC EMPIRE (54.85), IRISH WAR CRY AND TAPWRIT (54.75), STATE OF HONOR (54.73), McCRAKEN (54.64) AND GUNNEVERA (54.50). The top 3 horse's with the least deceleration are: IRISH WAR CRY, McCRAKEN AND SONNETEER.
THE WRAP-UP: All the top horses aforementioned have already run at least their 2nd best or best race this year with the EXCEPTION OF ONE- PRACTICAL JOKE. He,s 3rd off a layoff, just like the 13 horse in the Oaks, and I had to rate him off his win in the Champagne at Belmont. I know it's a 1-turn mile, but if that's all the information you have, use it. Top sustained energy horse. Tied for 2nd in PBS with a 104, same as McCraken, 2 points better than Hence, 3 better than State of Honor, 4 better than Always Dreaming. Tapwrit was #1 with a 106 in a NEUTRAL race. Again i'm using the Master Magician along with the Pace Plus e(my velocity program).On the PPF side are Always Dreaming +5, with State of Honor and Irish War Cry, both 0.
I'm making PRACTICAL JOKE my top horse and McCRAKEN( horse for course angle) my 2nd key around the other aforementioned horses.Besides if i'm wrong i'm still alive in the futures with Classic Empire, Irish War Cry and Gunnevera. We will soon see. Stay tuned.
Later, Omar (the "O" Man).
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Old 05-06-2017, 09:00 AM   #2
lone speed
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Tapping into "Infinite Intelligence"

Omar

Thanks for writing up you very detailed analysis of the Derby with your insights about the possible early pace match-up ; while examining the 2nd call turn times and carrying the match-up through the 3rd fraction!!!

I've enjoyed reading your thought process especially knowing that you analyzed the match-up while employing "a race matchup software" to aid your match-up analyses.

This power of "infinite intelligence", hmmm

Indeed, the Champagne race was a huge "Energy" race albeit around one turn and at a mile. It was one of the top "two-year races" along with the now- injured- Mastery and McCraken's win in the one turn mile StreetSense stakes at Churchill Down. There is a respected long time poster at Thorograph who been's raving about Practical Joke's sheet pattern coming up to the Derby even though Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry have "lower" Thorograph's numbers (lower is best)

Always Dreaming will be the likely favorite in this year's Kentucky Derby with his dominating win in the Florida Derby over a super fast racetrack on Florida Derby Day. This track was so souped up like an Indy Race track that day so adjusting Always Dreaming's race fractions- this horse walked and gunned home but will be forced to run faster early pace fractions in the Derby early pace match-up that it will lose its "demonstrated' closing 3rd fractions. We shall see and "yes, it is only one race" but It's the Kentucky Derby!!!!! Mints juleps and "My Old Kentucky Home!!! and only 200,000 screaming race fans in attendance
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Old 05-06-2017, 09:31 AM   #3
Mr.Pagine
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Just my Opinion.....

Omar,

It's a good thing that you have your future bets, as I just can't see PRACTICAL JOKE getting it done today.

ALWAYS DREAMING - I think this is a SPECIAL horse, and Pletcher gets his second Derby.

IRISH WAR CRY - Will be right there.

Happy Punting!!
Jon
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