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11-21-2019, 12:49 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Betting
I posted this in the Bill Benter post in this forum
However, that thread has veered off into a different topic and commentary My betting strategy in this post http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...79&postcount=2 was questioned That poster did not say how he would have bet the race I was attacked and that post was deleted I would like to explain some facts 1 found the most recent race where I had made straight win bets on 2 horses as is the Sartin Methodology guideline. I bet the 5 and 8 horses. Both were at around 3.5 to one at post time. As is often the case both horses took late money and went off at near 3/1 Doc recommendation and his betting strategy was to take the horse of the top 3 VDC ( now RX3) that would pay at or near 5/2 as the first bet For the second bet the horse with the best odds of those top 3 VDC or RX3 today Doc also recommends a fail-safe approach to better bet your bankroll I am paraphrasing " Bet in a way that you are never too far behind." "this way when the long shots come along using Validator(RDSS) you get PROFIT not just get back to even " In this race, the 5 was my first bet. For my second bet, based on the odds I should have bet horse #1 at It does not matter. Horse 5 won the race. To me the way DMR has been running on the turf, Horse 1 did not fit. The 8 fit the model that I track every racing day and that is early with good EPR and TPR, plus a good CSR The 1 was shipping from GG which runs more sustained In this race 1 bet 2 horse $5 per horse I bet $10 and won $20 so I got 2/1. If the odds stayed at 3/1 and 3.5/1 at post time I would have got 2.25/1 My bets Last edited by Bill V.; 11-21-2019 at 12:54 PM. |
11-21-2019, 05:42 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Good explanation and nice win
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11-21-2019, 05:45 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I think it was a good bet Bill. I'm a firm believer in the two horse bet that Sartin always recommended and expounded on to prevent run outs and to keep your brain functioning so it doesn't effect your next play or your overall day.
I also sometimes structure my bets to break even or make a lot. I.e. I would bet $2 on the # 5 and $6 on the # 8. If the 8 wins I make more profit and if the 5 Wins a small profit or break even. It really depends on my assessment of the race and how strong the win contenders are and what odd the public is giving you. There are many ways to bet , under Sartin and the odds you made a good bet. Sometimes on these low odds and paying horses I'll bet $1 ex. rather than bet to win and put more on my 2nd choice horse. Its hard to argue with a profit no matter how small. I think you made a good bet. With the # 8 coming in 3rd only beaten by 1 1/4 lg. he definitely was a win contender. Nice work Bill and congrats on very good analysis of the race. I'm sure may betters lost money on that race, you can't argue with success. Mitch44 |
11-21-2019, 06:42 PM | #4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Thanks
Thanks, Mitch and Jeff
The reason I chose that race, I could have chosen a race with a higher win price with a simple review of my TVG account The race I chose was simply the most recent race in which I made a 2 horse win bet All I was doing in the Bender thread was demonstrating that even though we are up against it with whales like Bender RDSS and the Sartin methodology will always beat the races because no matter what "The horse runs the race" The Sartin methodology is very special that without the proper pacelines and betting ability The user will not wil consistently. It is so easy to redboard after the fact, I chose the Del Mar race because it was very current and reflex the state of my mind and body ability TODAY Thanks and here is to you to also bring home the profits Bless Bill |
11-21-2019, 11:21 PM | #5 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 154
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Quote:
So it is a two step process. The first part is how likely is the horse to win. The second part is trivial if you don't get the first step right. Your assessment of the second part (can the horse be bet at these odds) also relies heavily on the first part, what are the chances the horse can win this race. The "whales" have no impact on the decision as to the horse's ability to win, and part of the impact on the decision as to whether the horse can be bet. Last edited by MikeB; 11-21-2019 at 11:35 PM. |
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