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Old 12-31-2011, 12:15 AM   #41
rmath
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Happy New Year to everyone. I have been concentrating my plays on one track lately because of the pick 4 contest at Aqu.
Here are my results so far ;
1 vdc 16/36
2vdc 8/36
3 vdc 7/36
4 vdc 3/36
The top three are doing exceptionally well 86% winners.
26 of the 31 top 3 wins were also a New Pace contender, this is 72 % of all wins.
So far most of the time I only have two horses to key, About 1 out of every 4 I have 3horses. I was lucky in this contest so far as I hit a 900.00+ pick 4 eight times and am in the lead.
If these stats continue to hold up it will be a very good new year.
The combination of VDC & New Pace at Aqu may prove to be a blessing, and I invite every one to join in on the good times.
Again HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone,
rmath
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Old 12-31-2011, 08:56 AM   #42
mikesal57
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Good going.....

Just some questions:

Selecting Lines...

1) best of last 3....what if horse is off a layoff?
2) what if line 2 & 3 are more than 90 days and line 3 is best adjusted?
3) All races playable? maidens with lines?
4) Enter a line for each horse..even though not in the money or closer than 4 lts?

5) All your plays need to be a New Pace contender also?

Thxs
mike

Your New Year looks promising
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Last edited by mikesal57; 12-31-2011 at 08:59 AM.
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Old 12-31-2011, 11:04 AM   #43
rmath
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Aqu contest

Good morning Mike & Happy New Year.
In response to your questions.
1) best of last 3 regardless of time off.
2) I would use line 3
3) yes all races are playable in this case because I am playing in a pic 4 contest.
4) yes, If the lines are really bad the horse will be eliminated by the Primary Line score.
5) Yes

Mike , for the contest only this is my procedure, I have no other choice.
BUT for my actual bets I do pay attention to days away and recent form.
What I am looking for is that one or two good priced horses that will make the pic 4 pay well and hopefully not too many other players have used either of them.
rmath
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Old 12-31-2011, 11:31 AM   #44
mikesal57
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thxs buddy...good luck in the contest

i will give your approach a test at other tracks and let you know
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Old 01-03-2012, 03:45 PM   #45
rmath
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Mikesal

Mike here is a little update for Aqu.
I now have 60 races
Vdc
1) 24
2) 18
3) 8
4) 5
55 win .9167
43 pbx .717
New Pace
E1) 12
E2) 16
L1) 16
L2) 7
51 win .85
35 pbx .583

49 of the Vdc wins were also NP contenders .82 wins with about 3 horses per race being dual qualifiers. The perfecta was in the dual qualifiers 29 times for a .48 hit rate.
6 of the other wins were top 2 vdc and only 2 were New Pace contenders.
Aqu appears to be a very solid track to play with RDSS & New Pace.

The guidelines mentioned above and in all my testing have remained the same.
between Vdc and New Pace I have only eliminated 3 winners of 60 races
or 5% , this is my starting point for the horses that I am using in the Pic 4 contest. I am working on getting the contenders down to 3 or less and maintain at least 80% winners.
The horses that I am actually betting are the dual qualifiers that go postward at 3/1 or higher.
In the pic 4 contest I am not worrying about the odds as much as I am about hitting the ticket.
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Old 01-04-2012, 01:45 AM   #46
BJennet
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How does NP help?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath View Post
Mike here is a little update for Aqu.
I now have 60 races
Vdc
1) 24
2) 18
3) 8
4) 5
55 win .9167
43 pbx .717
New Pace
E1) 12
E2) 16
L1) 16
L2) 7
51 win .85
35 pbx .583

49 of the Vdc wins were also NP contenders .82 wins with about 3 horses per race being dual qualifiers. The perfecta was in the dual qualifiers 29 times for a .48 hit rate.
6 of the other wins were top 2 vdc and only 2 were New Pace contenders.
Aqu appears to be a very solid track to play with RDSS & New Pace.

The guidelines mentioned above and in all my testing have remained the same.
between Vdc and New Pace I have only eliminated 3 winners of 60 races
or 5% , this is my starting point for the horses that I am using in the Pic 4 contest. I am working on getting the contenders down to 3 or less and maintain at least 80% winners.
The horses that I am actually betting are the dual qualifiers that go postward at 3/1 or higher.
In the pic 4 contest I am not worrying about the odds as much as I am about hitting the ticket.
Hi Rich,

Congratulations on your performance in the AQU contest. The one thing that seems unclear to me in your post is how NP is contributing. The stats you've presented for hit-rate at AQU are almost exactly the same as those I've posted about getting at two of the three big NY tracks (AQU, BEL) and the three big CA tracks for the last couple of years using TE, which is about .95 correlated with V/DC.

From the stats you've previously posted, and from what I've observed myself re NP, comparing top four, it hits about .85 of all the winners that Sartin/RDSS gets (roughly .72:.85). If you used Venn diagrams to map their relationship, about .95 of NP winners would be inside the Sartin/RDSS diagram, with the other .5 outside, representing all of the NP winners that RDSS missed.

If nearly all of NP is contained within RDSS, how is it contributing to picking winners? Most crucially, unlike RDSS, NP isn't correctly rank-ordered, so if you are only betting the top two in a race, its top two will always be measurably worse than RDSS.

Any clarification here would be helpful.

Cheers,

B Jennet
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Old 01-04-2012, 09:04 AM   #47
rmath
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Bjennet, You are right about New Pace not giving a ranking order and that the majority of the winners are already ranked on VDC.
The way I use them is as a corrollary to separate ties on vdc, I have found that if the 3rd & or 4th VDC horses are not also New Pace contenders they rarely Win.
They do place or show, but I am only interested in getting the winner in my top 2 or 3 horses. My goal is to get 80 to 90 % in these 2 or 3 final contenders.
At the present time I am looking at another ranking method ( another Monty) to see if I can narrow my final 3 to 5 horses to 3 or less without eliminating more than 5% of my main contenders. So far things are looking very promising.
While this adds a little extra work it appears to be helping. I am using a ranking system, like Dave Schwartz talked about in one of his seminars that is based on an unrelated set of factors.
When I have worked it on at least 500 + races I will post the results here.
So far I only have about 100 races recorded, but as Doc always said if you can get one more winner in each 20 race cycle then it is worth doing.
Hope this helps in how I am using NP to separate the VDC contenders.
rmath
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Old 01-05-2012, 05:50 AM   #48
BJennet
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Still confused

Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath View Post
Bjennet, You are right about New Pace not giving a ranking order and that the majority of the winners are already ranked on VDC.
The way I use them is as a corrollary to separate ties on vdc, I have found that if the 3rd & or 4th VDC horses are not also New Pace contenders they rarely Win.
They do place or show, but I am only interested in getting the winner in my top 2 or 3 horses. My goal is to get 80 to 90 % in these 2 or 3 final contenders.
At the present time I am looking at another ranking method ( another Monty) to see if I can narrow my final 3 to 5 horses to 3 or less without eliminating more than 5% of my main contenders. So far things are looking very promising.
While this adds a little extra work it appears to be helping. I am using a ranking system, like Dave Schwartz talked about in one of his seminars that is based on an unrelated set of factors.
When I have worked it on at least 500 + races I will post the results here.
So far I only have about 100 races recorded, but as Doc always said if you can get one more winner in each 20 race cycle then it is worth doing.
Hope this helps in how I am using NP to separate the VDC contenders.
rmath
Hi Rich,

Got to admit this made me scratch my head somewhat. I can understand the idea of substituting (which is the same thing as the testing you describe) an NP horse for #3 V/DC - but how much of a gain is there in doing this, when the hit rate of the #3 V/DC is .17 (according to your 500-race sample) and the average hit rate of an NP horse is .18? I think your sense that you're getting a better hit rate this way may be the result of looking at a too-small sample size. In theory #4 seems like a better candidate for this kind of substitution. However another problem that I think might arise when you try this is that you'll find that V/DC #1 & #2, are, in effect, taking some of the win probability from the substituted NP horses, since they are taking a larger overall share of the win probability than the NP contenders with whom the substituted NP horse is usually grouped. I know this sounds kind of long-winded and confusing, but it's just a way to say that correct rank-ordering is really important, and its lack in NP greatly detracts from its value, at least in this context.

BTW, to be clear, I'm not trying to persuade you to change any of your procedures - everybody's got to do his thing - but more for the general group, something to think about re NP.

Continued good luck in the contest. Hope you hang on to the lead and take it all.

Cheers,

B Jennet
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Old 01-05-2012, 10:11 AM   #49
rmath
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Still Confused

BJ., I will try to clarify somethings that I do regarding the use of NP.
1) I get every race down to 5 horses using Primary line scores & total energy if needed.
2)From these final 5 I eliminate any horse that does not have a NP rating (unless it has a top 2 vdc rating)
3) At this point I usually only have 2 or 3 horses left

In the 60 races at Aqu 21 winners paid 3/1 or higher
18 of these were dual qualifiers
2 were top rated Vdc
1 was NP L1 that was eliminated by PLS

So 20/60 winners .33 were in my final bettable contenders
18/60 winners .30 were dual qualifiers
Only one of these was (in my opinion was a bettable horse) it went off at 11/1 and paid 24.20: The other single paid 8.30
So by using this set of guidelines 19 of 21 winners at 3/1 or higher were actually gettable.
I hope this helps to clarify any confusion.
My main goal has always been to get as many Winners (at 3/1 & above)as possible in my final 2 or 3 contenders.
At Aqu so far I have achieved my goal. I realize that not everyone likes to wait and only bet 2 or 3 races per day, but this has proven in my case to be the most profitable.
In regards to the contest I want to thank you and everyone for the best wishes. It is my hope to at least finish in the top 5 or better.
Richard
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