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Old 04-11-2011, 10:34 AM   #1
RichieP
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E/L Screen 2.0 black box results opening week at EVD

4 nights at EVD.

ALL races tracking top 2 bolded early and late PLUS the horse I call "double red" which is the screen shot you see here (if its not red in color forgive as I am color challenged).

So a max of 5 horses and many of the races this double red is also one of the 4 bolded leaving only four contenders.

Here is the screenshot of who I am calling "double red". It is the #8 Gee's Glitter - see the red under BOTH the % and "accum" columns
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Old 04-11-2011, 10:36 AM   #2
RichieP
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Results

Here are the opening weeks results tracking top 2 early / top 2 late plus the "double red" where it is the additional 5th contender:

4/6:
r1 - out - double red wins 8.40 exacta is there 60.20
r2 - win (also double red) 13.40 + exacta 29.00
r3 - win 6.00
r4 - win 7.00 + exacta 21.20
r5 - out
r6 - win 6.80
r7 - win 12.20 + exacta 69.00
r8 - out
r9 - win 10.80 + exacta 68.80
r10- out

4/7:
r1 - win 14.60 + exacta 53.80
r2 - win 10.40 (double red places exacta 85.60)
r3 - out
r4 - win 4.80 + exacta 82.60
r5 - win 11.80
r6 - win 7.00
r7 - win 12.80 (also double red) + exacta 75.40
r8 - win 37.20 + exacta 367.80
r9 - win 18.00 + exacta 54.40
r10- win 10.40 (place horse is double red exacta 223.80)

4/8:
r1 - win 3.80 + exacta 17.20
r2 - out - double red wins 49.20
r3 - win 4.00 + exacta 14.80
r4 - win 6.40 + exacta 38.80
r5 - win 4.60
r6 - out
r7 - out
r8 - win 7.20
r9 - win 46.20
r10- out
r11- win 11.60 + exacta 33.00

4/9:
r1 - win 2.80
r2 - out
r3 - win 24.40 + exacta 110.00
r4 - out
r5 - win 14.60
r6 - out
r7 - win 3.60 + exacta 11.40
r8 - win 4.40
r9 - win 4.40 + exacta 25.20
r10- out
r11- out


Program is VERY fast - MUCH faster than RDSS1. Screens have a nice look to them.
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Old 04-11-2011, 02:40 PM   #3
Bill Lyster
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Richie:

I have been doing much the same thing, but also looking to eliminate long layoff horses (for me, more than 270 days - at least from the win consideration)

I was thinking that there might be some great work done by comparing the handicapping results of the plain black box approach to how ever you normally handicap (could be best of last three or the line you use for today's matchup - either one or both)

I had an instance at SA on Saturday where the best of last three made the winner #5 BL, but E/L 2.0. Line 3 for Liberian Freighter (he was the double red horse and was the Dominant early horse) was best of last three; line 4 was his best and line 5 would have elevated him into top three on BL/BL. It is only one example but my thought was that whenever E/L 2.0 includes a horse that is left out of the top BL ratings it might be good to take a second look. Since EL is looking at (up to) the last ten races it might be telling us that the horse has more potential than its last three.

Of course the other side of that coin is that the form of the horse might be tailing off and EL would then be giving too rosy of a picture. So some form decisions still need to be made.

And, in this case, if you were a "Pizzola window" devotee you would have had this horse in your top two as well.

By evaluating all the races there is an element of The Hat's method in the EL theory and that in itself cannot be bad. This is a good tool that needs more understanding and interpretation.

Bill
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Old 04-18-2011, 01:46 PM   #4
RichieP
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Week 2 at EVD

Here is week 2 from Evd using same criteria as above post. ALL races looked at with NO handicapping, qualifying contenders etc:

4/13:
r1 - win 2.80 + exacta 12.20
r2 - out
r3 - win 7.80 + exacta 19.20
r4 - out
r5 - out
r6 - win 6.00 + exacta 32.20
r7 - out
r8 - win 7.00
r9 - win (also double red) 10.60
r10- out

4/14:
r1 - win 22.60
r2 - out
r3 - out
r4 - win 3.80
r5 - win 24.60
r6 - win 4.40
r7 - win 14.40 + exacta 164.20
r8 - win 14.00 + exacta 102.80
r9 - win 8.00 + exacta 53.00
r10- win 12.60 + exacta 56.20

4/15:
r1 - win 4.20
r2 - win 6.80
r3 - out
r4 - win 2.60
r5 - win 19.60
r6 - out
r7 - out
r8 - out
r9 - out
r10- win 114.00 + exacta 433.60
r11- win 21.60 + exacta 115.00

4/16:
r1 - win 3.60 + exacta 25.20
r2 - win 10.80 (also double red)
r3 - win 5.60 + exacta 16.20
r4 - win 5,20 + exacta 71.00
r5 - win 7.20
r6 - win 6.20 + exacta 27.80
r7 - win 5.60 (also double red) = exacta 19.60
r8 - win 15.20
r9 - win 18.80
r10- win 3.00
r11- out
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Old 04-18-2011, 02:51 PM   #5
RichieP
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First 2 week summary totals - Win and exacta percentages and avg prices

2 week summary totals:

84 races

57 wins in contender mix (top 2 bolded early and late + the double red when he is 5th contender) = 68% (sucks I.M.O)

33 exactas in contender mix = 39%

57 winners total $718.20
avg win price = $ 12.60 (Very good I.M.O - getting prices)

33 exactas total = $2,590.20
avg exacta price = $78.49 (very good I.M.O - getting prices)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOkIU...eature=related
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Old 04-18-2011, 08:14 PM   #6
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Some tentative E/L 2.0 comments

Quote:
Originally Posted by RichieP View Post
2 week summary totals:

84 races

57 wins in contender mix (top 2 bolded early and late + the double red when he is 5th contender) = 68% (sucks I.M.O)

33 exactas in contender mix = 39%

57 winners total $718.20
avg win price = $ 12.60 (Very good I.M.O - getting prices)

33 exactas total = $2,590.20
avg exacta price = $78.49 (very good I.M.O - getting prices)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOkIU...eature=related
Hi Richie,

I've been following the threads by you, Snake, and others on this new feature of RDSS 2.0 closely, and appreciate all the work that's being invested.

I'm aware that this is derived from the work of Dave Schwartz, and have also been reading the threads dealing with it on Paceadvantage. Certainly, this is too complex to pursue in detail here, but my main question deals with the role of the 'double red', which I take it, indicated the dominant 'E' horse in the race, and is distinguished from the four 'contenders'. I just wondered when, and how often, this horse is included as part of the contender mix in the stats you've tabulated, since it would greatly influence the way the results are interpreted.

As far as 'win' performance goes, these results are unimpressive, especially compared with RDSS, but Dave seems to be indicating that this program should be thought of in terms of 'value', which is fine with me. From what I've seen here, and on Paceadvantage, it seems that the 70% win-rate for the four contenders is fairly stable. If we assume an average hit-rate of say, 9/2, for all of them (although probably eventually we'll have a more accurate idea of each factor's hit-rate), this will reduce the number of horses that can be bet to win, but looking at the ROI of all contenders going off at odds of 6-1 and above, could give us an idea of its ability to identify longshots.

The exacta results look great, but this is why I asked about the 'double red'.
If you box the four contenders, this is a 28% profit. However, if you box all five horses, it loses 23%. Since this program is good at producing higher exactas, maybe this issue can be dealt with by setting a minimum payoff above break-even for all combinations of bets rather than betting the full box. For a 40% win-rate (which seems to be the average) $60 would be break even, so you could simply bet only on combinations that would pay more.

Any feedback appreciated. Thanks again for all your hard work.

Cheers,

B Jennet
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Old 04-18-2011, 08:38 PM   #7
Bill Lyster
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The double red horse (RR), the horse with the best early position numbers, is only considered dominant if the percentage exceeds 62%.

I have worked 363 races so far with the worst result for the RR horse being at Mnr where 36 out of 48 placed out of the top three places.

Overall, 205 out of 363 (56.5%) have finished out of the money. So far I have not done any summary by % age to see where there might be a break or dent for the ITM finishes.

The distribution so far is 59 first, 59 second, 38 third, 34 fourth and 171 other

That it for now...

Bill
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Old 04-19-2011, 12:10 AM   #8
BJennet
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Difference between RR horse and Early contenders

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
The double red horse (RR), the horse with the best early position numbers, is only considered dominant if the percentage exceeds 62%.

I have worked 363 races so far with the worst result for the RR horse being at Mnr where 36 out of 48 placed out of the top three places.

Overall, 205 out of 363 (56.5%) have finished out of the money. So far I have not done any summary by % age to see where there might be a break or dent for the ITM finishes.

The distribution so far is 59 first, 59 second, 38 third, 34 fourth and 171 other

That it for now...

Bill
Hi Bill,

Much thanks for this information. One question that it suggested to me was whether the results for the RR horse are correlated with those of any of the contenders- presumably E1 or E2. Not trying to create more work for you, but I would be curious to see if it's possible to isolate the value of 'E' dominance, in itself.

One other very interesting thing about these results - win and place probability are identical. This is very different from my results with TE, where the place probability was almost exactly .5 for both place and show. If this is consistent with all the contenders - and the high exacta hit rate suggests it is - maybe this points toward a way to use this feature in conjunction with the Sartin primary factors.

Cheers,

B Jennet
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Old 04-19-2011, 03:23 AM   #9
For The Lead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
The double red horse (RR), the horse with the best early position numbers, is only considered dominant if the percentage exceeds 62%.

I have worked 363 races so far with the worst result for the RR horse being at Mnr where 36 out of 48 placed out of the top three places.

Overall, 205 out of 363 (56.5%) have finished out of the money. So far I have not done any summary by % age to see where there might be a break or dent for the ITM finishes.

The distribution so far is 59 first, 59 second, 38 third, 34 fourth and 171 other

That it for now...

Bill
By contrast, I keep records of the best (fastest) first fraction horse in every race, i.e.- the "best early" horse in each race. At MNR so far this year there have been 89 winners from 339 races or a win percentage of 27%. The return for these winners (as of 4.17.11) is $2.12. I think Dave Schwartz referred to this number as a "dollar net". I just call it by its' old fashion name, ROI (return on investment).

Based on this information I would say the "new pace" system is not identifying the best early horse in each race.

Also, I must say that in all of my research, there is no single stat that achieves an ROI of $2.00 (or break even) on its' own. In other words, to this point in the MNR meet, the best early horses are doing much better than could normally be expected, therefore, early speed at MNR is not only winning better than its' fair share of races, but is returning a profit as well.
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Old 04-19-2011, 09:54 AM   #10
RichieP
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BJennet View Post

The exacta results look great, but this is why I asked about the 'double red'.
If you box the four contenders, this is a 28% profit. However, if you box all five horses, it loses 23%. Since this program is good at producing higher exactas, maybe this issue can be dealt with by setting a minimum payoff above break-even for all combinations of bets rather than betting the full box. For a 40% win-rate (which seems to be the average) $60 would be break even, so you could simply bet only on combinations that would pay more.

Cheers,

B Jennet
Morning "B"

here are the stats for # of contenders (broken down race by race for the 8 cards.)

I also tracked the performance of the double red when it had the dominance # of 62 or higher.

4/6:
r1-5
r2-4
r3-4
r4-5
r5-4
r6-5
r7-4
r8-4
r9-5
r10-4

4/7:
r1-5
r2-5
r3-4
r4-5
r5-5
r6-4
r7-4
r8-4
r9-5
r10-5

4/8:
r1-5
r2-5
r3-5
r4-4
r5-4
r6-5
r7-5
r8-4
r9-4
r10-5
r11-5

4/9:
r1-4
r2-5
r3-5
r4-5
r5-4
r6-5
r7-4
r8-4
r9-4
r10-4
r11-4

4/13:
r1-5
r2-4
r3-5
r4-4
r5-4
r6-5
r7-4
r8-4
r9-4
r10-5

4/14:
r1-4
r2-5
r3-4
r4-4
r5-4
r6-4
r7-5
r8-5
r9-5
r10-4

4/15:
r1-4
r2-5
r3-4
r4-5
r5-5
r6-5
r7-4
r8-5
r9-4
r10-5
r11-4

4/16:
r1-4
r2-4
r3-4
r4-4
r5-4
r6-4
r7-4
r8-4
r9-5
r10-5
r11-4

84 races
37 races with 5 contenders
47 races with 4 contenders


"Dominant "E" runners (62% or higher double red)
1) 4/6 race 3 - #1 - off 8/1 - out
2) 4/8 race 4 - #3 - off 3/2 - out
3) 4/9 race 5 - #4 - off 6/1 - ran 3rd
4) 4/9 race 10- #3 - off 5/1 - ran 3rd
5) 4/13 race 3- #5 - off 33/1 - out
6) 4/13 race 7- #13- off 16/1 - out
7) 4/14 race 2- #10- off 10/1 - out
8) 4/14 race 3- #7 - off 5/2 - ran 3rd
9) 4/14 race 8- #1 - off 17/1 - out
10)4/14 race 10-#7 - off 2/1 - out
11)4/15 race 3 -#5 - off 12/1 - out
12)4/15 race 4- #14- off 36/1 - out
13)4/15 race 11- #4- off 2/1 - out
14)4/16 race 1 - #7- off 4/5 - WIN 3.60
15)4/16 race 6 - #3- off 7/2 - ran 3rd

1 win from 15 races.
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