RDSS 2 For Wed 4/27

[rmath]

Since the #7 scratched and the #4 was a double red why not use him in the tri and exacta.
Still trying to make sense of these #s

[rmath]

any chance on putting up Woodbine for tonight?
I am a little lost on the %s and the high lo #s.
any help with an explanation would be appreciated.
Glad you had a safe trip.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by rmath

Since the #7 scratched and the #4 was a double red why not use him in the tri and exacta.
Still trying to make sense of these #s

Richard,

Given the readouts after scratches and the bet-time odds, how would you have structured those bets?



Ted

[rmath]

Ted;
I would have keyed
the
3@5/1, and the 5 at 3/1 over the 2,3,4,5 with the all in third at acost of 12.00
I would also keyed the 3 top and bottom with the 2.4 &5 in the exacta. cost 6.00
I also would have bet 2.00 to win on the 3 & 5. cost 4.00.
I try to keep my total bets between 20.00 &25.00 per race.
Rmath

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by rmath

any chance on putting up Woodbine for tonight?
I am a little lost on the %s and the high lo #s.
any help with an explanation would be appreciated.
Glad you had a safe trip.

Richard,

Unfortunately, I won't have the time to do that for Woodbine tonight - maybe someone can put up a few.

Once you watch the original video by Dave Schwartz, the procedure and concept is pretty clear (though the execution gets tedious - hence EL 2.0 ...). I have a bit of a fine line to travel regarding teaching the concepts behind NewPace because that's what Dave thought he was selling a product to do. When RDSS2 is released (and likely somewhere during the Beta cycle), after an initial 30 day gratis period for evaluation, EL 2.0 (i.e. the representation of NewPace within RDSS) will require that you have purchased the video product from Dave. No one is compelled to do so, or to use it. And I am not saying at all that it is a better alternative to proper use of what we already have in RDSS - just different and perhaps a confirmation of some things we already see, or some long-price horses to consider as contenders (e.g. for exotics)

If I ever published the formula for V/DC (which I would not), I would not appreciate someone else creating a product including it and me not receiving any compensation for it (setting aside the fact that it was Doc's creation, not mine - but you get the drift). That's the reciprocal expectation Dave has, and it seems fair to me.

Therefore, while I'm happy to comment on and observe usage and best practices, in order to be able to offer it at all to the RDSS user base, and by agreement with Dave S, I will probably not elaborate too much on how it all gets created.

The general idea is - we're not trying to steal business from Dave Schwartz. Hopefully the discussion of usage and summaries of hit rate and profitabililty along the way will help folks decide whether they want to use EL 2.0 themselves and whether it's worthwhile buying the original from Dave.

Give me until the end of this week and I might be able to announce a promotional discount on NewPace (and Improve/Decline) for Pace and Cap members. Dave suggested something to me a few weeks ago and we need to review it. It might be only a $10 or $15 discount so it won't break the bank if anyone prefers to just wait until they can get RDSS2 and test it for 30 days first.

Hope that's clear. I'll make a further announcement about how NewPace is going to fit into RDSS2 and whatever licensing issues there may be - as soon as I know them.

NewPace Blurb: http://thehorsehandicappingauthority...inar-download/

Good luck tonight (it's rather showery at Woodbine).

Ted


***Update: the private NewPace Forum is established for any and all detailed discussion about this topic (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7386)


.

[rmath]

Ted since i did not have the revised read out I actually played the race as I posted it. I did run this race thru RDSS1 and The 6 only ranked 4th.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by rmath

Ted;
I would have keyed
the
3@5/1, and the 5 at 3/1 over the 2,3,4,5 with the all in third at acost of 12.00
I would also keyed the 3 top and bottom with the 2.4 &5 in the exacta. cost 6.00
I also would have bet 2.00 to win on the 3 & 5. cost 4.00.
I try to keep my total bets between 20.00 &25.00 per race.
Rmath

Ok Thanks. That's $107.30 return for $22 bet or 3.87-1

Ted

[seattlesnake]

Good Luck tonite.....

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

I believe your right in Tam 1st..

the 4 is eliminated due to not meeting the POR of 57....

in Dave's concept , you bet horses over 7/2 to win and box exacta's with the contenders but not sure of what to do when theres more than one lower than 7/2

lets watch race 1...

the 3 is in as a early and has top late fig...and is presently 9/2

Hi Mike,

From the results we have, 7/2 seems to be too low as a cutoff for a profitable win bet. I believe Dave has claimed a win rate slightly over 80% for New Pace, but the win % for the contenders as a group as been pretty steady at about 70% over 800 or so races. Take a look at Bill Lyster's numbers for 500, which are taken from a dozen tracks, and are consistent with the hit rates of races put up by Snake and Richie. But it also looks like the contenders differ in hit rate - just as an approximation, the E1 looks to be about .22 (7/2), the E2 - .12 (7-1), the L1 and L2, both around .17 or .18 (roughly 9/2). If you want to bet any single horse to win, obviously you need to go an odds tick or two higher. And if you want to bet more than one horse, you need to go another tick higher for each.

However, from what Dave has said, this was his intention. This is a value-based (longshot) program. Actually the odds are close to, if a little worse, than Richie's profitable automated paceline from a couple of years back. At one point he said, 'Hey, do I need to hit longshots just to make a profit?' I think with his or this automated program, the answer is yes.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[mikesal57]

BJ..I'm just stating what Dave mentioned in the video...with further analysis from the guys here that are tracking results , I'm sure that a conclusion can be made to a constructive way of wagering..

With the Woodbine races that were put up...it looks to me as a good day...
forget the maiden race ...in the next race , if we can do without a long layoff horse that $30 winner would have came in as the second early horse
this to go along with the other 2 winners $13 and $24

nice