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Old 11-29-2013, 05:30 PM   #11
Ted Craven
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Mark (and everyone),

You'll be happy to learn that, at least as of last December 2012, Tom Hambleton was alive and feeling better than he had been for some time, even getting back into handicapping. This, from Ron Tiller of HDW, in a post at PaceAdvantage: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=99810

Tom's email address is given in that post, and apparently he is happy to hear from old friends and acquaintances!

Only Tom can fully elaborate on what his feelings about TPR were or are, though I know that nowadays, at least Dick Schmidt still has stated he felt they were valuable numbers, on the occasions he still goes to the track.

But if Tom was ever disappointed in them, or at least in their incompleteness, he would not be the only one - Howard Sartin stated on several occasions, in videos, in print and in at least one seminar I attended (sorry I cannot remember the specific references right now ...) that TPR was a good introduction for beginners, but that like most popular methods, it could account for reducing the mutuels it did hit and that one needed to delve deeper to find more obscure prices (hence the advanced section at the back of the book).

That's why EPR, LPR (FFR) and CPR (TPR) are only 3/7th of the Primary Factor set which, weighted, constitute BL/BL and which along with segmental deceleration measurements, feeds into VDC.

It's possible that Doc was after a certain point, and a certain amount of 'bad blood', damning TPR with 'faint praise' - but that's not for me to speculate on further. Many RDSS users certainly use it to good effect, though I hope, not to the exclusion of all the rest of the readouts.

Which includes the Matchup tools and markups. Perhaps there are 2 main 'camps' in the Methodology: the velocity, energy/deceleration based, rankings of line scores (Sartin) and the visual, positional, early pressure and response thereto of Bradshaw's Matchup approach. It is folly (and just plain untrue) to imagine that serious, thoughtful practitioners of BOTH aspects can not each be winners. I have seen it (both) with my own eyes.

Also, there is a convergence between the two - Sartin's approach being an attempt to numerically quantify the Early versus Late measurements which Bradshaw practiced intuitively (though don't forget who programmed Energy, and Kgen and Thoromation, and was responsible for Aodds ...)

I am thankful for the presence of BOTH aspects within RDSS, and for those who have taught me more about how to apply Bradshaw's matchup, which I do in conjunction with Sartin's numbers.

Hopefully someone can get in touch with Tom Hambleton and find out how he's doing now.

cheers,

Ted
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Old 11-29-2013, 06:34 PM   #12
Bill V.
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One of 4

Its funny how a post about work out patterns went from that subject to a new post here about adjusted speed ratings to projecting the pace of race to Ted and Marks's
feelings about Tom Hambleton and TPR numbers.

I would like to add that things happen in any of our lives that can effect weight gain, a loss of job and despondency to things that one once loved.

I have written many times of my own demons and skeletons that were
in my past, none of which were caused or cured by a anything but my own ability to cope. and mostly I benefited from the love of friends and family.

To say what has been written above about any man, happened because a Sartin methodology tool works or not was the cause of a mans troubled times is sad.

The book had 4 authors The title is Pace Makes The Race
an introduction to the Sartin Methodology

PMTR is a Sartin Introduction, It is not a TPR book. The TPR ratings are just one part off many tools in the methodology, things like Form, Money management
the Match Up of early and late runners, energy , running styles and
yes turn time and balance So Pace Makes The Race is more than
"just a small part of the primary factors"





Thanks
Bill
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Old 11-29-2013, 07:11 PM   #13
Mark
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Ted,

That's very interesting as I spoke to Jim Cramer not more than 6 months ago and he told me of Tom's demise. But I am happy if indeed your information is correct and I will find the email address and attempt communication if that is true. I have only related first hand knowledge concerning TPR from conversations with Tom in the mid-90s.
I have used many of the Sartin programs for many years and still have most of them stored away. I believe that the intellectual origin for most of these advanced deceleration concepts and even running style designations were Jim's. I don't feel they are mutually exclusive but on the one hand the energy numbers are mathematically derived and therefore subject to a great deal of manipulation while the other is strictly eye-balled. As in RDSS2 you must make assumptions about the application of final time variant, how much to apply and to which fractions. I am not comfortable with the current method you employ so I use the raw data on the Original Screen exclusively. However, the ability to stack pacelines and divide contenders into Early and OTE is terrific!
I am not suggesting to anyone that they abandon their approach to handicapping. I have merely expressed my opinion particularly when it comes to projecting the pace as a first step to picking pacelines. I have also pointed out what I feel are the serious flaws using a factor such as CSR as a guide to contender selection and given a rather lengthy discussion as to my justification. If you can't get the right contenders and pacelines into your analysis it is virtually impossible to make a profit.
Lastly, I will always be thankful to the Pace and Cap website for the Hat Check Blog. It is in finding this about this time last year that I was finally able to understand the tenets and concepts of Jim Bradshaw both in his posts and Richie P. This has been my most profitable handicapping year as a result.
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Old 11-29-2013, 07:25 PM   #14
Bill V.
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Mark

Getting back to the subject of projecting the pace
I just saw the results of race 10

I see I was very close to the actual second call POR

I am look forward to seeing how you projected the pace
Pizzolla's Fulcrum from Pace Makes The Race was just about right on

Bill
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Old 11-29-2013, 07:32 PM   #15
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Hi Mark

Yes I do see some value in projecting the POR
I find the fulcrum better, The fulcrum is not meant to predict the POR
Its rather a base to judge if a horse can run competitively against it
From Pace makes the race.

" If you have set a conservative fulcrum pace,
horses which have demonstrated that they cannot finish competitively
after facing paces close to the fulcrum pace are not contenders to win the race
regardless of their TPR's"

Bill
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Old 11-29-2013, 08:55 PM   #16
Mark
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Bill,
It is very exciting and reassuring when that happens. However, there are a number of situations that can occur when it doesn't and you still win the race. For example,
1)the horse or horses that you believe will force the early fractions don't break well or today don't want to go early. This will often lead to a Lone F who slows things down when unchallenged or runs off and sets a blistering pace and folds up at the 1/8th pole. How many times in a quasi paceless route race have you set the 2nd call and they run 2 seconds slower? That used to drive me crazy until I understood what had happened.
2) When track conditions via maintenance or weather change from the period of the pacelines used you can get both slower or faster 2nd calls than you might have projected. I handicapped and lost a race at WO today at 8.5f and no horse in the field had run better than a 1:10.8 2nd call in any of his route pacelines on that Poly surface. with the inclement weather they have been having all week, the surface must have partly frozen as they went along in 1:09 and change today.

By the way, you do me a disservice suggesting that my comments about Tom's weight had anything to do with his handicapping. Or that I suggest that overweight people are in someway flawed or scared by life. Our lifestyles contribute to our physical and emotional health. It's something that a great many of us fight with daily. We have to get exercise and attempt to eat healthful food when most
of the foods available to us at reasonable prices are highly processed, filled with sugars and carbohydrates. Genetics and upbringing also play a great role. But then you don't know me or anything about me.
I emailed the address from Ron Tiller's posting on Pace Advantage and am hoping to hear something from Tom soon!! Hell, I only live 4 hours from Las Vegas and can drive up to see him. I lived in Las Vegas for 6 years before I got married.
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Old 11-29-2013, 09:36 PM   #17
Bill V.
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so what your saying

So is what your saying is even with a consistent method of projecting the POR
Because things happen where you totally miss and the actual pace of race
be it much fast or slower, you still do the same procedure race after race
Is the correct ?
The key is consistency ?

Bill
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Old 11-29-2013, 10:39 PM   #18
Mark
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Bill,
Are you serious or are you just screwing with me?
You will never be able to take the pace from a race run 2 weeks, a month or 3 months ago and expect the same exact track conditions today or that the combined energy of today's runners to produce the same result 100% of the time.
That doesn't mean that you won't get the winner however. Horses distribute their energy from the gate onward but an E horse is still an E horse, a P is still a P etc. All other things being equal a deep surface will require more energy to get over and the times will be slower. A rock hard surface will require less energy and lead to faster times. If your race is made up of Pressers without any dedicated E horses, someone will inherit the lead and only run as fast as he has to or if he has never held the lead before, he may run off. This is why adjusting fractional times to par charts and final time variant can be so misleading. Yes it works at times but to the detriment of PRICE!

But my interest here is simply to point out a different perspective than you obviously hold. That is why I have posted. Mechanical paceline selection is so fraught with error that something as simple as projecting the pace may show a newcomer a different dimension and thereby maybe help him/her understand the game and not lose so much money initially.

If you want to espouse your view, I have no problem with it as long as others can express theirs freely.

By the way, to answer your questions about the POR of the CD race go find Jim Bradshaw's 5 step approach and his methods for projecting the pace in the Hat Check blog. I would have used the 6f line from the horse whose last race was from Indiana Downs as it was a fast sprint at the distance with a competitive finish, but have taken special note of the #3 horses 21.9 -45.9 off a hd in his last race at 6f at CD. Today was his third off a layoff and I would have bet this horse win and place at odds over 20/1 and collected a $28 place price.
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Old 11-30-2013, 08:30 AM   #19
Bill V.
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Thank You Mark

As you have pointed out Jim Bradshaws 5 step approach method and the fulcrum method I used
both got excellent results

Thanks for your help

Bill
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