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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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06-29-2018, 07:08 AM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Good stuff Bill!
I subscribed
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
06-29-2018, 01:42 PM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Hey Richie:
It doesn't matter that the glass is half full or not; the key thing is ITS REFILLABLE!! More wine please. |
06-29-2018, 01:56 PM | #13 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Quote:
I love it!!!!
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
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06-30-2018, 08:48 AM | #14 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Part 3
So now we are to the nitty gritty
Let's review what we have done in part 1 and 2 We have read the conditions. We have selected our contenders For the horses that we have selected as contenders, We then selected a paceline. So now we can move on to the readouts For those who are unsure, or could not view the videos Here are my notes and contender/ paceline selections This race is a $100,000 Stakes Race It is a 7-furlong turf sprint The conditions tell us that this race is for 3-year-old fillies eligible for the NY stallion series Every horse is a 3-year-old filly The morning line favorite is #5 Mentality @ 1.8/1 Horse 1 Orchid Party She has no turf sprint or turf races. She has NO comparable races at today's distance and surface Horse 1 is a non-contender Horse 2 Wegetsdamunnys She has no turf sprint or turf races. She has NO comparable races at today's distance and surface She is a non-contender Horse 3 Aunt Babe She has no turf sprint or turf races. She has NO comparable races at today's distance and surface She has a Morning line of 20/1 She is a noncontender Horse 4 is Scratched Horse 5 Mentality She is a true win contender She just ran a + race 29 days ago Right on today's distance and surface She has turf experience routing and sprinting Horse 6 Pure Silver She has no turf sprint or any turf races. She has NO comparable races at today's distance and surface She is a noncontender Horse 7 Miss Mystique She did run an even race 29 days ago Right here at Belmont at 7 furlongs at today's surface. She never was out of the race positionally but She did beat half the field. However, She never made a move. Line 1 is unusable, It is not a + or (+) She made no impact on the outcome of the race. Horse 7 is not a win contender. I would also like to stop here When we read the conditions we should be aware of the age restrictions of the races in horses past performances This race is restricted for 3-year-olds Have any of today's horses run plus races against older horses? Horse 8 Baby Boss She has no turf sprint or turf races. She has NO comparable races at today's distance and surface She is a non-contender, her last line is a (+) She did win a $100.000 stakes race in line 2 But that was on the dirt She will probably be an early pace factor but she is not a win contender Horse 9 Dreams Are Pazable at first glance I would say, Yes sure I can use line 3. I can excuse line 1 because its the wrong distance ( route ) I can excuse line 2 because it's the wrong surface I can use Line 3 Right? It's a usable line It is a (+) only 58 days ago at today's distance and surface but there is one more factor Her Morning line is 30/1 She is a sure Early pace presence But she is not a win contender Horse 10, GoodBye Brockley She Has a couple of things going for her She has come back after an almost year-long layoff and shows a win against older She just ran a + paceline on the turf but at 8.5 furlongs Is this a comparable distance? Her adjusted phase 1 readouts 19 lengths (points) behind the favorite Could we excuse the routes and go to line 3 Well here is the problem with that Line 3 is an MSW race. Doc's guidelines for using maiden pacelines against winners are to use them If only if its the last line. and only if the condition in today's race is for non-winners of 2 lifetime I will have to mark horse 10 ITM only and not for win Horse 11 is scratched Horse 12 Kreese She is solid all around She has 3 consecutive turf sprint plus pacelines Line 1 is a + race usable line because she finished 3rd If we look closer she also ran the plus race against older Horse 13 She's Delightful She may be delightful but She has no comparable surface races She is off 156 days. She is 20/1 ML And that concludes the FTL guidelines portion of working the race. FTL's guidelines are not a win bet selection method But using FTL's guidelines will make final readout and wager decisions much easier So how did you do? I will show you what I did. Now with these contenders and pacelines I will go to a minimum of two RDSS screens 1. The TPR screen 2. The RX screen First the TPR screen Look at that I only have 2 win contenders Horse 5, The Morning line favorite, She is going off at even money Horse 12, She is going off at 6/1 I have marked horse 8 and 10 as ITM only or secondary contenders They have positive factors but based on statistical research by FTL, they are very low win candidates The remaining horses are all non-contenders You are free to just ignore this type and not even give them a line, I prefer this method of giving them a line but placing them out of the way By selecting a line and categorizing all horses, I am less likely to miss a horse in my final analysis. I can also view the race from a total matchup perspective if all the horses have a line, Things like who are the early horses? and will the closers be too far back to win? I am able to answer this from the phase 1 readouts. Once I am finished with my TPR-Early/Late analysis Now I go to the RX screen and make my wager decisions This time FTL's guidelines did all the work for me Normally I am just a 2 horse win better. So for me, in this race, that meant win bets on horse 5 and 12 . Horse 5 is even money so I bet 60% of my base bet on her to win Horse 12 is at 6/1 I bet the remaining 40% on her to win I also made a "place to be" bankroll builder place bet on horse 10 I included the 5 and 12 in a small pick 4 ticket So there we have it Here is the result chart The 12 wins the race and pays 6.80/1 The 10 places and the 5 rounds out the trifecta Thank you for participating in this race demo I tried my best to present a race in a workshop environment. I hope my presentation gave everybody an equal opportunity to work the race without the results shown or known beforehand I would like to do more of these workshops. I need your feedback. Thank you to those who have "liked"the videos with a thumbs up on my youtube channel And for those who subscribed. All comments about this and ideas for future workshops are very much needed. God Bless Good Skill |
06-30-2018, 10:51 AM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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Excellent!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You cease to amaze me with the work you put into the software. I really enjoyed the videos. excellent teaching tool for us visual folks and I did subscribe.
Bob |
06-30-2018, 10:53 AM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Bill,
This was an excellent layout of the Guidelines and your handicapping. The only thing I would add is that, based on my own research into turf races using FTL guidelines, you can accept a horse as a contender making a positional move to the second call that only gets it to say 3.5 lengths back at the second call (assuming it did not finish 1-2-3 in the subject race). This kind of corresponds to the nature of turf racing. I would note that my research only encompassed a couple of hundred races, so it would pale in comparison with FTL's in that regard. And as you said, he decided that dirt runners were more dependable. Really enjoyed your analysis. |
06-30-2018, 11:27 PM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Bill
Great job and would like to see more of them Jeff |
07-01-2018, 12:05 AM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 340
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Bill, nice win. Like I said, I can't watch the vids but enjoyed the written. Yes, I would like to see more.
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07-01-2018, 01:19 PM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Bill
Nice way also showing how you used RDSS, makes it easy for someone like me that gets confused by too many readouts Jeff Last edited by shoeless; 07-01-2018 at 01:21 PM. |
07-01-2018, 05:24 PM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 644
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Great YouTube site!
Thanks for sharing your work. |
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