Breeder's Cup

[Phase III Lives]

I have a suggestion for having fun with the Breeders Cup races. Most people here approach races with a value perspective in mind, so I felt we could make 2 types of selections for each race that you feel is playable.
Category 1 is picking the one horse you think will win - period - in each race you feel is playable. In this category the horse is the one you have on top - no value thought at all...

Category 2 is to pick 1 or 2 horses in each race that you feel are the best bets for you to make - value wise(hiding/eliminating those low odd horses as you like). If you really like one horse you bet both $2 bets on him, otherwise 2 $2 bets on each of them. Again you pick only those races you feel are playable.

Let me know what you think... I have been too busy as I always seem to be these days, but want to set aside some time to look at these races.

I know foreign horses could make this not work well - but I thought it could be fun.

the other Jeff

[nomorebocci]

That sounds like a good idea
It will be fun

Brooks

[Phase III Lives]

Hey brooks....

One thing i forgot... In category 2 - you measure how well you do by ROI on $2 bet on the 2 horses or $4 on the one....

In category #1 it has to be measured by either % win or number of wins... I guess we should do number of wins - since I could pick just one race. We could also pick our best 5 races ... i dunno...Let's do the 5 races you feel the best about. But I am open for suggestions...

[Baffalator]

There are many unknowns concerning weather and final field makeups. However, I've spent several days going through the Racing Form advance and reading Mazur's Crushing The Cup.

Beyer numbers and Racing Form analysis are interesting reading. The DRF and Bloodhorse are also sources of information.

This is a rough breakdown by race of horses of interest. Much work remains to make final choices etc.

The DISTAFF gives me three horses of interest. Ashado the favorite. Capeside Lady Pletchers other horse who LOVES THE MUD. Sweet Symphony the overlooked 3 yr who also likes off going.

The Juvenille has everyone's super horse First Samurai with Bailey aboard.
Are we looking at a horse that will bounce or the next Secretariat? Beware of Socerer's Stone, Leo and Set Alight.

The Juvenille fillies has Adieu and Folklore to draw everyone's attention. Sleepers are Keeneland Kat with a new Jockey and Knight Templar an overlooked horse from Woodbine. Both of these horses are grandsired by Storm Cat.

The Mile is very deep and challenging as usual. Leroidesanimaux is a strong favorite having won 8 straight. This race, however, is a wild scrample on the turn. Post position and racing luck will dominate the outcome. Horses worth considering are Valixer(Andre Fabre), Gorella(3YR filly), Singletary(Last yrs champ and 2nd choice), Major Casts(Massive ROI trainer) and Host(14/14 ITM and a mid-priced sleeper).

The Sprint has undefeated LOST IN THE FOG. Worthy challengers are Taste of Paradise, Silver Train and Elusive Jazz. Lost in the Fog gets tested.

The Filly and mare Turf has Ouija Board, last years champ and likely favorite, to contend with. Contenders to unseat her are Mona Lisa (great smile) and Karen's Caper(prepped in Keeneland).

The Turf will be a competitive race this year. Alkassed, Bago and Shirocco look formidable. Money should spread all over the place. They will be flying on the turn and the stretch run will be the survival of the fittest. Cold and damp conditions will favor foreign horses. If it comes up soft maybe Gun Salute can sneak into the picture.

The Classic is far from it's calling card. This has second string written all over it. The best horses have all fallen by the wayside. Rock Hard Ten, Saint Liam and Borrego make the top choices and offer zero value. Oratorio is a distance specialist and offers little value for high risk.Starcraft maybe hyped as well. A hidden horse that will be let go at a price is Suave. Beaten by each of the top three horses he will be dismissed by most. However, a lightly raced May foal thats 4years old out of AP INDY is capable of jumping up when you least expect it. Second to Borrego, Second to Rock Hard Ten and fourth to Saint Liam beaten 2 lengths is not bad. Considering two of those races came as a 3 yr old, he maybe ready to peak in his fourth start of the year and his second at Belmont. Please take note of Suave's outstandinf off-track breeding .


Hopefully, this gives you food for thought. The fields are deep and the prices should be good.

[Phase III Lives]

Awesome info .... thanks!

[Binder]

Incrediable Baffalator
wishing you another great day

[JimG]

Baffalator,

Really enjoyed your analysis. Thanks for sharing and taking the time.

Jim

[Baffalator]

The forecast from the National Weather Service for Monday night and Tuesday was grim. Remnants of Hurricane Wilma, plus another storm, were expected to combine to bring an inch of rain to the area near Belmont Park. Wind gusts, some predicted to reach 50 miles per hour, were forecast for Tuesday along with rain, which was expected to last into Wednesday. After that, though, the forecast was quite promising. It was expected to be sunny and cool Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, with highs in the mid-50's. If that forecast holds, expect the main track to be fast Saturday, with the turf course soft.

[Baffalator]

The National Weather Service forecast for the rest of the week has changed slightly, and for the worse. After a predicted blustery day on Wednesday, it was supposed to be dry and cool on Thursday and Friday, with high temperatures in the mid-50's. On Saturday, there is now the possibility of showers.

[Baffalator]

My assumptions are a non-firm Turf which is on the soft side. Given that there are two turf courses and no races will be run on the turf between now and the breeders cup, this is the only assumption that can be made.
The main track will be fast, wet-fast or sloppy but sealed. The course will be compacted very tight. Horses with hoof problems will be unhappy. The track will probably sting. Forget about closers when that happens. I've identified my selections in each race.
Allow for 6 units per race.
If one horse I will wager 4units win and 2units place.
If two horse 3units win on each.
If three horses 2units win on each.
Total exposure 48 units.
There will be at least four races with horses less than 2-1, so value horses greater than 10-1 should be easily available.

Happy hunting.
ALBERTO VO5 BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE FILLIES
Total Purse: $1 million; 1 1/16 miles
Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1 Folklore E. Prado D. Wayne Lukas 5-2
2 Original Spin J. Bailey Anthony Mitchell 6-1
3 Along the Sea J. Castellano Ralph Ziadie 20-1
4 Diamond Omi V. Espinoza Bob Baffert 12-1
5 Knights Templar G. Stevens Daniel J. Vella 12-1
6 Adieu J. Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 3-1
7 Sensation E. Coa Stanley M. Hough 8-1
8 She Says It Best E. Martin Jr. Vickie L. Foley 15-1
9 Ex Caelis R. Bejarano D. Wayne Lukas 15-1
10 Wild Fit A. Solis Jeff Mullins 6-1
Value Play #5 Knights Templar


THE BESSEMER TRUST BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE
Total Purse: $1,500,000; 1 1/16 miles
Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1 Superfly E. Coa Nicholas P. Zito 30-1
2 Ivan Denisovich (IRE) K. Fallon Aidan P. O'Brien 12-1
3 Leo (GB) F. Dettori John H. M. Gosden 20-1
4 Set Alight R. Bejarano Christiane Head-Maarek 20-1
5 Jealous Profit C. Nakatani Doug O'Neill 50-1
6 Dawn of War J. Castellano Dale L. Romans 20-1
7 Stream Cat G. Stevens Patrick-Louis Biancone 30-1
8 Sorcerer's Stone M. Guidry Patrick B. Byrne 12-1
9 First Samurai J. Bailey Frank L. Brothers 8-5
10 Henny Hughes E. Prado Kiaran P. McLaughlin 5-1
11 Private Vow J. Velazquez Steven M. Asmussen 8-1
12 Stevie Wonderboy G. Gomez Doug O'Neill 8-1
13 Brother Derek A. Solis Dan Hendricks 20-1
14 Dr. Pleasure J. Santos John Ward 20-1
Value Plays #4 Set Alight

EMIRATES AIRLINE BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE TURF
Total Purse: $1 million; 1 1/4 miles
Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1 Luas Line (IRE) C. Soumillon David R. Wachman 15-1
2 Film Maker P. Valenzuela H. Graham Motion 12-1
3 Sundrop (JPN) F. Dettori Saeed bin Suroor 30-1
4 Riskaverse J. Santos Patrick J. Kelly 15-1
5 Wend J. Velazquez William I. Mott 10-1
6 Flip Flop (FR) G. Gomez Ben D. A. Cecil 20-1
7 Wonder Again E. Prado James J. Toner 8-1
8 Megahertz (GB) A. Solis Robert J. Frankel 5-1
9 Favourable Terms (GB) M. Kinane Sir Michael R.Stoute 20-1
10 Intercontinental (GB) R. Bejarano Robert J. Frankel 8-1
11 Mona Lisa (GB) K. Fallon Aidan P. O'Brien 15-1
12 Karen's Caper R. Albarado John H. M. Gosden 15-1
13 Ouija Board (GB) J. Bailey Edward Dunlop 5-2
14 Angara (GB) G. Stevens Patrick-Louis Biancone 20-1
Value Plays #11 Mona Lisa #12 Karen's Caper

TVG BREEDERS' CUP SPRINT
Total Purse: $1 million; 6 furlongs
Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1 Taste of Paradise G. Gomez Gary Mandella 12-1
2 Attila's Storm P. Valenzuela Richard E. Schosberg 30-1
3 Silver Train E. Prado Richard E. Dutrow Jr. 8-1
4 Battle Won R. Dominguez Charles Simon 10-1
5 Lion Tamer J. Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 12-1
6 Wildcat Heir S. Elliott Benjamin W. Perkins, Jr. 10-1
7 Lost in the Fog R. Baze Greg Gilchrist Even
8 Elusive Jazz R. Albarado Bobby C. Barnett 12-1
9 Lifestyle A. Solis Wesley A. Ward 30-1
10 Imperialism V. Espinoza Kristin Mulhall 15-1
11 Gygistar J. Castellano Mark A. Hennig 12-1
Value Plays #8 Elusive Jazz #4 Battle Won

THE NETJETS BREEDERS' CUP MILE
Total Purse: $1,500,000; 1 mile
Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1 Host (CHI) R. Bejarano Todd A. Pletcher 12-1
2 Artie Schiller G. Gomez James Jerkens 6-1
3 Whipper J. Murtagh Robert Collet 12-1
4 Sand Springs J. Bailey William I. Mott 20-1
5 Ad Valorem K. Fallon Aidan P. O'Brien 20-1
6 Funfair (GB) E. Prado H. Graham Motion 12-1
7 Majors Cast (IRE) F. Dettori Jeremy Noseda 15-1
8 Gorella (FR) G. Stevens Patrick-Louis Biancone 20-1
9 Singletary D. Flores Don Chatlos 8-1
10 Valixir (IRE) C. Soumillon Andre Fabre 10-1
11 Leroidesanimaux (BRZ) J. Court Robert J. Frankel 7-5
12 Limehouse J. Santos Todd A. Pletcher 20-1
Value Plays#1 Host #8 Gorella #7 Majors Cast


EMIRATES AIRLINE BREEDERS' CUP DISTAFF
Total Purse: $2 million; 1 1/8 miles
Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1 Society Selection E. Prado H. Allen Jerkens 8-1
2 Stellar Jayne F. Dettori Saeed bin Suroor 5-1
3 Ashado J. Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 2-1
4 Nothing But Fun A. Solis Michael E. Hushion 30-1
5 Yolanda B. Too E. Coa Richard Violette, Jr. 30-1
6 Healthy Addiction G. Gomez John W. Sadler 10-1
7 Happy Ticket V. Espinoza Andy Leggio 6-1
8 Island Fashion R. Bejarano Marcelo Polanco 12-1
9 Hollywood Story P. Valenzuela John A. Shirreffs 20-1
10 In the Gold G. Stevens Nicholas P. Zito 20-1
11 Pleasant Home C. Velasquez Claude R. McGaughey III 20-1
12 Sweet Symphony J. Bailey William I. Mott 8-1
13 Capeside Lady C. DeCarlo Todd A. Pletcher 30-1
Value Plays#10 In The Gold

THE JOHN DEERE BREEDERS' CUP TURF
Total Purse: $2 million; 1 1/2 miles
Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1 Shake the Bank T. Turner H. Graham Motion 99-1
2 Shirocco (GER) C. Soumillon Andre Fabre 20-1
3 Bago (FR) T. Gillet Jonathan Pease 5-1
4 Better Talk Now R. Dominguez H. Graham Motion 8-1
5 Azamour (IRE) M. Kinane John Mortimer Oxx 7-2
6 Ace (IRE) K. Fallon Aidan P. O'Brien 12-1
7 Shakespeare J. Bailey William I. Mott 3-1
8 Silverfoot R. Bejarano Dallas Stewart 30-1
9 Fourty Niners Son C. Nakatani Neil D. Drysdale 15-1
10 English Channel J. Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 10-1
11 Laura's Lucky Boy G. Stevens Richard E. Mandella 20-1
12 Leprechaun Kid G. Gomez Mike R. Mitchell 20-1
13 Gun Salute C. Velasquez William I. Mott 20-1
Value Plays#2 Shirocco #9Fourty Niners Son

BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC - POWERED BY DODGE
Total Purse: $4 million; 1 1/4 miles
Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1 Rock Hard Ten G. Stevens Richard E. Mandella 7-2
2 Sun King R. Bejarano Nicholas P. Zito 30-1
3 Choctaw Nation V. Espinoza Jeff Mullins 15-1
4 Oratorio (IRE) K. Fallon Aidan P. O'Brien 10-1
5 Perfect Drift M. Guidry Murray W. Johnson 12-1
6 Sir Shackleton J. Castellano Nicholas P. Zito 20-1
7 Super Frolic E. Coa Vladimir Cerin 30-1
8 Suave E. Prado Paul J. McGee 20-1
9 Flower Alley J. Velazquez Todd A. Pletcher 10-1
10 Jack Sullivan F. Dettori Gerard A. Butler 50-1
11 Borrego G. Gomez C. Beau Greely 9-2
12 A Bit O'Gold J. Jones Catherine Day-Phillips 30-1
13 Saint Liam J. Bailey Richard E. Dutrow Jr. 3-1
14 Starcraft (NZ) P. Valenzuela Luca M. Cumani 12-1
Value Plays#8 Suave #4 Oratorio