4/3 Selections

[TheSpokesman]

I guess I'll get the bandwagon rolling with a couple of picks for opening day at Keeneland.

Race 1: 6-3-4
Race 2: 8-2-7

I've chosen to focus my Keeneland wagering action on these two races today. In both races I'll play my top pick to win, and I'll also make a modest Daily Double play as follows:

6-3 w/ 8-2-7

My key selections are 5-1 and 8-1 in the ML respectively, so I'm trying for a price here to get the Keeneland meet off to a good start.

The Spokesman

[JLG]

Question: AQU gets back on the turf today. How do people handle handicapping analysis for horses that haven't run on the turf? If you use non-turf lines, is there anything that you can look for that would indicate a horse will compete on the turf?

Thanks
Jim

[barb craven]

Good question Jim, it's something I'd like to know too.

Barb

[TheSpokesman]

I can only offer my own personal preference for these situations. The saying "class on the grass" weighs heavily in my decision. I will likely give added consideration to those who have strong turf pedigrees. In truth, sometimes I simply will avoid a turf runner until I have seen one race over the surface. If he beats me in the debut, oh well.

As far as other indications other than breeding these are speculation at best, however, some early data seems to indicate that horses who compete well on synthetic also favor the grass. It's much too early to tell.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by JLG

Question: AQU gets back on the turf today. How do people handle handicapping analysis for horses that haven't run on the turf? If you use non-turf lines, is there anything that you can look for that would indicate a horse will compete on the turf?

Thanks
Jim

Use the Pizz window and put in the top TPP lines. Their (AQU) turf contest today is full of first time turfers so that race is almost guess work but the entry on the rail stands out given the information available.

[JLG]

Use the Pizz window

I know you don't use RDSS Tim, but I am not sure what the Pizz Window is. can you post a screen shot? Thanks

[clore1030]

Turf at AQU is canceled owing to the weather.

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by JLG

Question: AQU gets back on the turf today. How do people handle handicapping analysis for horses that haven't run on the turf? If you use non-turf lines, is there anything that you can look for that would indicate a horse will compete on the turf?

Thanks
Jim

I'd look for breeding, which at present isn't made available in RDSS, much to my disappointment. Ted once responded to me that it's coming however.

A sloppy track line may provide some clue.

Personally, if there are two or more unknowns in race, I tend to pass it unless there is a really strong "known" in the field.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by JLG

I know you don't use RDSS Tim, but I am not sure what the Pizz Window is. can you post a screen shot? Thanks

In Handicapping Magic, Pizzolla talks about form cycle windows. On dirt he has strict rules about their margins (where one cycle ends and where another might begin), but on TURF, he reports (and my research has found this to be true and given me a new lease on life n the grass) that cycle is only bounded by the last 10 lines.

On turf he opens up the ENTIRE past performances and says to choose their BEST turf line and then compare thme that way. I have found many a long priced winner in races of mixed turf and dirt performers using the best TPP for each no matter the surface and then using the incremental deceleration screen as a predictor

The "window" then is his sequestered area of the past performance or form cylce which for turfers is their entire past performance history

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by JLG

I know you don't use RDSS Tim, but I am not sure what the Pizz Window is. can you post a screen shot? Thanks

I'll let Tim expand on the issue, but the Pizzola window is really an angle. The term confused me at first until Tim explained it to me.

Use the horse's best TPP ratings (or Perceptor ratings), no matter how far back you have to go. The top two horses that show up on the BL/BL screen often win at very nice prices.

EDITED to ADD

Looks like Tim got back to you - just trying to help.