Trying to Understand

[gl45]

Mike,
If you want to be a MU guy, you MUST use raw time and horse positions not lengths. Anything adjusted will not work with the MU concept.
In regard your pha race#1, you're right #11 is not an early horse.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by gl45

Mike,
If you want to be a MU guy, you MUST use raw time and horse positions not lengths. Anything adjusted will not work with the MU concept.
In regard your pha race#1, you're right #11 is not an early horse.

Thxs Pino....I thought i was going nutz and I understand you on the MU

but this is bugging me

[raceman5]

Hi Mike,

Do u think the program would run better if u just turned the variants off?

Bob

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by raceman5

Hi Mike,

Do u think the program would run better if u just turned the variants off?

Bob

Dont know...but it will give me raw #'s like doing MU???

I'll try a few on Gulfstream...on and off...but hope I can keep up

[raceman5]

Sure give it a try. Man of your calibur should have no problem keeping up.

[Ted Craven]

Mike,

Using your chosen lines, the Segments screen (or the F1 on Velocity, same thing) shows you who should get the lead at the 1st call - the Early horse. It is the #8. The same screen(s) will also tell you who will likely hold through the 2nd call - same horse #8.

The readouts become clearer with fewer horses entered, e.g. 5 horses. Some common guidelines are to eliminate to Top 5 Total Energy/Primary Line Score per the Primary Screen. This will eliminate the #11 (plus it just looks like a sorry horse).

The #6 is the clear even money favourite and a formful horse = no value. Using your line (last line), it ranks 5th so no worries. Using its best of last 3 comparable, or line 2, it projects on top, but can be hidden for win and included back in exotics.

So you have #4, #9, #8 ontop of BLBL. On odds alone (presuming 1 MTP odds equal final odds), one might miss betting the #8 in a 2 horse bet (e.g. bet #4 and #9), but which of he #8 or #9 looks like it might better get the job done (#8 IMO - and the CR rank #3 shows it is much more consistent in 2009 than the #9). Plus, owning the 0.0s at BOTH the 1st and 2nd calls on Segments (or rank #1 in F1 and 2nd Call Velocity) is a mark of a horse who will be there, ready to close if its F3 is not horribly deficient (and, 4f of a 5.5f race is 72% of the race). At the odds, you could dutch 3 horses.

The EPR rating is a measure of the average velocity through the 2nd call, but the #11 only got that EPR rank #1 because of its good 2nd fraction, not its 1st fraction. As you know, an Early horse will take the lead at the 1st call, and the #11 spits the bit in sprints when he tries for any contested lead at the 1st call. You should eliminate this horse, IMO.

Fractals? Who knows! It's there because it was there in Validator and in Speculator. Fr-E is a blending of fractional velocities intending to skew Early. Fr-L skews late. Fr-N has relatively more of 2nd call velocity, but a bit of F1 and a bit of F3. Forget about Fractals!

A MUCH more reliable readout to find the True Early horse than EPR is E/ep on the Energy screen. The Early who can carry its energy through the 2nd call often owns the first 2 0.0s on Segments.

That's how I identify the Early horse, using adjusted readouts! Maybe you can successfully tinker with variants, but default adjustments, in this case, sure look like they identify the Early and the top 4 finishers.

Ted