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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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09-04-2019, 08:45 PM | #41 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Don't feel bad as I also have problems with screen shots. Too bad its not a simple copy and paste. You have about 15 minutes to change or delete a post, if it doesn't come out correctly just delete the post and start over.
Mitch44 |
09-04-2019, 10:03 PM | #42 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Hi
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09-04-2019, 10:20 PM | #43 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 17
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It is Arlington on the 6th first race number 3 Touch of Disney
Thanks for the help |
09-05-2019, 06:47 AM | #44 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Arlington
Hi
I see no problem using line 1. It is a plus race, it is recent, it's within 1/2 furlong of today's distance. Line 5 is similar, the horse did make a middle move. The perceptor is best on line 1 |
09-05-2019, 06:50 AM | #45 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 17
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Thank you
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09-05-2019, 07:00 AM | #46 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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You
You are welcome,
To answer your original question, Let the program tell you who should be moved out of contention, We are not so much rating horses against themselves We are taking representative pacelines, then asking the program to calculate those lines against the other horses in THIS race Once this is shown, then horses should be placed as contenders or secondary Good Skill |
09-05-2019, 10:10 PM | #47 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 26
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Am I the only one worried that this is a nine year old horse who is winless in 2019? It seems a little risky going back any further than the last paceline.
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09-05-2019, 11:33 PM | #48 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I personally would choose line # 4 for this horse.
Line 2 wrong surface, line 3 is not within 1 furlong of todays distance. That leaves lines 1,4 & 5 with the best Preceptor being line 4. I think this horse can even run better than line 4 because his best races are all at 6 F and today he is cutting back in distance and can run faster while not decelerating as much as he would at 7 F. He is pretty consistent at the stretch call in just about all his races and recent Tot. Energy would be better at 6F. He is pretty consistent for a 9 yr. old. As far as age its not a concern as there are probably others in this race that are old warriors. In other words the age aspect would have to be put in context of the other horses within the race. Ditto for consistency, class etc. This is just an analysis of this horse and all this is meaningless as far as the other contenders within the race. Each contender must be evaluated before a final decision can be made. I think this horse could have been a winner this year if ran at the 6 F distance. This race may be the first carded at 6 F for a long period of time. His M/L,APV, CSR and CR all indicate he is a contender. Mitch44 |
09-06-2019, 02:07 PM | #49 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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1-3-2-4 for this race 1st at AP
Mitch44 |
09-06-2019, 03:11 PM | #50 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 26
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Mitch,
I appreciate your thoughtful response and detailed observations. Thanks very much for your contributions to the board. |
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