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01-04-2020, 02:31 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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SA r8 Gr2 San Gabriel 1/4/20
SA r8 Gr2 San Gabriel 1/4/20, post time 3:07 PT:
In reverse order: 7 -- Acker: stepping up to Gr2, first after 91 day layoff, first after claim, positive jockey switch to Rosario, but recent races too slow for this group => use underneath in vertical exotics, if at all 2 -- Chosen Vessel: shortens up but appears too slow after pressing the pace early, usually spits the bit => TOSS 1 -- Desert Stone: stretches back out to 9f, dropping from Gr1 races, but has been off for 222 days, will be closing => use underneath in vertical exotics due to class 5 -- North County Guy: stepping up in class, cutting back in distance from last race, Gutierrez might try to steal on lead => worth a win bet at ML of 8-1 or higher, use in vertical exotics 3 -- Cleopatra's Strike: shortens up from last, has shown success at Gr2 level, second race off layoff, jockey switch to Cedillo => win bet at 6-1 (not likely), use in vertical exotics 4 -- Overdue: shortens up from last, 2nd race after layoff => win bet at 4-1 or higher, use in vertical exotics 6 -- Majestic Eagle: stretching out, can compete at Gr2 level, 2nd race after layoff, should win this if runs back to last race => win bet at 5-2 or higher, use in vertical exotics Good luck Richard |
01-04-2020, 02:52 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,141
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Good luck Richard.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
01-04-2020, 03:24 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Richard
Best skill to you
Here is my look Horse 1. Desert Stone Form is a question mark He has been off 222 days The workouts are very good I will rat him off line 2 Horse 2. Chosen Vessel . I like the cutback in distance, I wll rate using line 3 Horse 3. Cleopatra's Strike Like the two horse I like the cutback I will rate using Line 2 Horse 4. Overdue I will again take a cutback line I will use line 2 Horse 5. North Count Guy Line 2 is a recent plus line I will excuse line 1 for distance Horse 6. Majestic Eagle Line 1 is a returning race even effort I will rate him using line 1 With a chance to improve Horse 7.Acker. Comes in off a 90 + layoff His TPR'S lately rate him below this group I will rate him offline 3 I will go with win bets as per Doc using the 1 4 5 Good Skill |
01-04-2020, 06:01 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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#1 OK after long layoff but will be bet down, price doesn't warrant risk
#4 B on improvement & eligible to improve, steps up and must prove it at low odds, at this point odds don't warrant risk # 3 I believe this horse is better longer and don't like the cutback # 6 ready to run best with 2nd race after layoff, should improve with extra distance. order 6-1-3-4 Mitch44 |
01-04-2020, 06:28 PM | #5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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The 222 day layoff horse wins. I thought this horse would be bet down and was surprised after posting to see the odds so went with it. For the best horse I thought the risk reward was there.
Nice call Bill. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 01-04-2020 at 06:31 PM. |
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01-04-2020, 06:59 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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Class wins out:
1 16.20 5.60 4.00 3 3.00 2.40 6 3.20 2 5 $1 1-3 ex 22.10 $0.50 1-3-6 tri 31.65 $0.10 1-3-6-2 super 37.61 |
01-04-2020, 07:18 PM | #7 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Pointing
Thanks, Mitch and Richard
Those are super works They surly were pointing for this race. Form and VDC is what Doc said to look at with horses over 61 days |
01-04-2020, 08:30 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,141
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Nice job Bill and Mitch especially using a horse off 220 days.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
01-05-2020, 12:16 PM | #9 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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layoffs
I hope Randy ": Akiinsrr" can give us the exact quote from Doc.
As far as layoff horses I used the 1 horse, who was off of 222 days Please note, the workouts! I include in my model the workout notations Desert Storm is being primed for this race and was the top 2 VDC. Normally I avoid long layoff horses because at SA the percentages are so small for winning |
01-05-2020, 02:01 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
Hello Bill,
I took note of the works in my analysis, especially the distance of the works. With SA a slower track now the works are even more impressive. Sartin said; to paraphrase once a horse is laid off over 30 days the length of the layoff makes no difference. I suppose the "Doc" was attuned to Biorhythms and the 28 day physical cycle of humans and animals. Mitch44 |
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