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09-08-2019, 06:50 PM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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A reasonable rule of thumb when deciding on win contenders is to limit the number according to the formula: # runners divided by 2. That is, in a race with 6 runners, no more than 3 win contenders. In a race with 8 runners, no more than 4 win contenders, etc. Over the years, Sartin went from 5 to 4 win contenders per race, and Bradshaw then narrowed it to 3 via his matchup. If you end up with more than the formula dictates, you should probably not make a win bet in that race since either you or your software does not understand it.
Also, there is nothing wrong with finding win contenders, and then creating a separate list of in-the-money contenders who are unlikely to win. For those using RDSS, the software is designed for such delineation. Richard |
09-08-2019, 08:10 PM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,037
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The I was trying to make was that my understanding was the selection section is for posting our opinions on a race or races and required no comments. If we post in the races of interest form then we have to make comments along with selections. And when it comes to teaching we have the Handicapping 101 thread plus an entire thread devoted to the FTL approach. Suggesting that we should mix and match threads is counter productive and not necessary in my humble opinion.
Tim
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09-08-2019, 08:55 PM | #13 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Discussion
Hi Tim
The race of interest forum is different in that the directions are *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems Also that forum is and was meant to be for races with a wider range of interest to the racing industry than your normal day to day races Yes there is handicapping 101 and the FTL forum They are great teaching areas What is being discussed here is simply the fact that for some people Only posting reports of winners after the fact with no validation of a bet is red boarding and not teaching, Thing change. If Ted and I fell the selection area might need some improvements and we discuss it , Then we decide to expand the requirement that proof of the outcomes is required. That will be added to the details of this forum and non compliers will be edited |
09-09-2019, 09:06 AM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,037
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Well if that's what you and Ted decided don't you think it would be nice to inform us of the new guidelines before you start questioning peoples' integrity? I know that one of the poster who committed this gross misconduct does in fact bet what he says he does since I have seen him bet in person. And posting selections is not,in my opinion,teaching anything but merely posting ones view of a race or races. If it's to become a teaching thread who qualifies the poster as qualified to to teach anything?. The Doc picked his teachers [ a very few selected members] whom he deemed certified to do so. Since new guidelines have been established then by all means enforce them. I will be interested in seeing who among the group are now considered teachers and look forward to reading their informational posts & threads. Thanks for the update on the new requirements to post in the selection thread.
Tim
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09-09-2019, 06:26 PM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Some of these issues came up briefly in our Friday night meeting in Saratoga.
Here's a proposal for feedback, after which I'll make a Sticky Post for this Selections Forum with updated guidelines for how we want to use it going forward. Selections Forum:For consideration and feedback. Thanks folks! Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
09-10-2019, 09:59 AM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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To me using half the field + 1 is far too many horses. Why not use what Sartin always advocated, that is two horses for win bets, +1 for scratches or if someone wants to wager cap. No more than a total of 3 horses.That's more than enough for win, win betting and for other horizonal bets. Beyond that is nothing more than a guessing game.
After all our main goal should be to help someone win not be an exacta player or proficient trifecta player. Winners are the springboard to everything and if they can't get the winner they can only get nothing or zero. Now in posting the results if the poster wants to post their ticket for a EX. TRi. ,DD. P3 etc. it would be an incentive to hone their winner getting skills. If posting a P3 or P4 etc. than additional horses would be allowed within reason say a total of 5, but even in those types of bets most races 3 horses would be the norm. No problem going 5 deep in an ugly or wide open race but not realistic for every race. Additionally a maximum of 3 horses for win reduces the comments that would be required in the Races of Interest section or forum, of course in that forum their free to expound as much as they want or just a simple comment. Posting the results within a reasonable amount of time is helpful and prevents the user from having to go search for the result and as time goes by for older posts even more difficult. I.e. 5th AP 4-7-10, #4 won $6.80 or # 5 upsets and pays $ 36.00 Get your say in or don't bitch later or to be P C forever hold your tongue. Mitch44 |
09-10-2019, 10:41 AM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I agree with the original poster (Richard) absolutely no red boarding.
At seminars Sartin always went over the next days races and even then many chose their own horse.He was never worried about losing anyone race. Nobody or any process wins every race. Its the process and procedure that's important. Past races for teaching should be frowned upon unless the data for the date, race #, track and horses name are all blacked out or hidden, otherwise they just look up the result and everyone is a genius. They only fool themselves. By hiding that data it forces members to participate in the process and participation enhances the learning process. People learn more by doing and participating than by lecture or any other means. Simply put by being involved with the task at hand. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 09-10-2019 at 10:44 AM. |
09-10-2019, 10:45 AM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
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I agree with Mitch that less is more. I prefer to see precision. One horse or maybe two like Conley and Parts do, but ideally with some rationale. Also, nobody bets every race. Post what you understand like the M4$ contests a few years ago...those were good examples of posting picks before races ran. Sure you will miss a lot. Posting the numbers of half the horses in a field, you will be posting the winners’ number frequently but so what. Did you really bypass the first two you listed and land on the third just because he was 12-1? Maybe.
Two horses max (ideally one, as per matching) with rationale. That carries the most weight for me. If you are betting exotics be specific. You have to respect precision over a range of possibilities even if more wrong than right. Pook |
09-10-2019, 12:24 PM | #19 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Good Posts
Thanks Mitch and Pook
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09-10-2019, 01:57 PM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,037
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Since it's the Sartin Methodology I recommend that the poster list 4 contenders and designates their wp pick[s].. For the purpose of keeping the exotics bets simple we would use the Docs' recommendation of boxing the top 3 for exacta and 4 horse box for tri. I realize that many use different approaches but this keeps it simple. The poster is free to post their preference if desired. As always I will abide by whatever the group decides,
Tim
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