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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 02-04-2021, 12:10 AM   #1
Auraofglory
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For those who make their own par times.....

When you do your initial sort of final times by class, how do you handle runaway winners? Do you continue to include them in the data and wait to see if those winners are still outliers later in the process, or do you look for those (whose winning margin exceeds say, five lengths) and drop them from the data right now?
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Old 02-04-2021, 09:46 AM   #2
Mitch44
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I would toss the outliers. Your looking for the mean here or average for a particular classification of class not the exception. Ditto with other areas such as Distance or surface.

Class is more difficult to refine than say a Speed Rating. A SR applies to all whereas by class can be murky because it doesn't apply to all. It comes back to identical man made classifications have strong fields and weak fields. Even among G1 horses there are strong fields and weak fields, also from year to year among G1 can have a strong crop or a weak crop.

Look to capture the majority not the exceptions, this includes not only a runaway winner but also the winner against a very weak field and whose numbers don't meet the norm.

Much of this stuff particularity a model is not necessary to win and I don't keep any kind of model at all. If you do keep one do it on Factors such as V/DC, BLBL etc. Factors within the program will serve you much better. Even with Factors there will be outliers such as a horse that stretches out for the first time and so forth.

Sartin's later developments solved many of the problems through convergence of factors. There is a Follow Up on that but I don't recall the number, I believe it in the 70's and its on the front cover. Sartin even says a model isn't necessary.Back in the early years of Sartin, models etc. were necessary but not so with later developments.

Read my Beginners thread and I expound more on this in that thread and if your new it'll serve you well as its full of good info and current info. It's full of info that took many years to comprehend and I quote Sartin's word for word.

Enjoy,

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Old 02-04-2021, 12:59 PM   #3
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The follow up Mitch refers to is #82 page 70 where Doc warns of the danger of using track PROFILES based on result charts. I would also recommend reading FU #80 p12 where Doc updates factors he considered outdated. Mitch is correct when he says you don't need a model to win. I myself do keep models for the tracks I play[by surface and distance] and find them to be just as effective as they were in the past. I model the 7 primary factors from the BL/BL SCREEN plus VDC rankings and the range of %med of both winners and place horses. I understand that those playing multiple tracks at the same time may not have the time to maintain models but those that play only 1 track a day[my scenario] should keep models. Again it's really a matter of preference.
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Old 02-04-2021, 01:04 PM   #4
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Sartin was not a believer in Pars. His concept was that the horses within a race make up the pars for that particular race. Called the Match Up those pars are current and change with every race and each race is different.


Therefore as I stated I don't keep a model and no one needs to in order to become a winner. The convergence of factors is the Match Up or pars for that race. This old model concept and or Pars is 1990 or before concepts that have been refined and superseded. Forget about it, waste of time.

From my Beginners thread: A Model / Profile is not needed in order to win." pg.14 FU 80 "However all potential bias is factored in to the V/DC output." The match-up has also been honed to its finest over the years and is considered within the V/DC factor which really eliminates the need for any model. Sartin's treatment is basically do no harm, a good solution in treatment to old school ideas that refuse to die. They also live on only because the good Doctor is no longer with us.

Collect data on Factors and it'll be much more rewarding than man made Pars etc. In fact data on Factors isn't necessary either, but for a newbie it'll give insight into what's important and what's not important. I would recommend that, once know its redundant to keep further data as it won't change to any meaningful degree.


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Old 02-04-2021, 02:00 PM   #5
raceman5
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Pars.

Well, put Tim and Mitch.

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Old 02-04-2021, 04:11 PM   #6
Auraofglory
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Pars

Thank you all, gents. Your replies are much appreciated.
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Old 02-05-2021, 10:00 AM   #7
Mitch44
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Sartin said that the Match Up "is 80 %" in each race. I somewhat believe its more. There are races that after the fact no other logic can be given accept that the horse won from the match up, once you re-analyze it. Note: much of that 20% can be accounted for and captured.

There are races where the match up is extremely hard to define before the race is won and even the best Matchers lose races. These races and the Match UP at times defy good contender selection and pace line selection. Additionally the Match Up will never get races where a horse does something different for the first time such as a stretch-out in distance. Yesterday I won with a horse that won on dirt and there wasn't one dirt race in its chart or lifetime record. As handicappers we have to capture the most possible and not worry about the exceptions.

I have seen so many fail trying to become a Bradshaw and employing the Match UP, that failure is probably way over 90%. People forget that Bradshaw wrote many of Sartin programs, therefor he had insights that few others are able to obtain plus his years of experience and knowledge. Fear not because the Match Up is all contained within the RDSS program.

Understand concept and the program and you'll have the Match UP. Its like Jimmy "The Hat" Bradshaw sitting right next to you and hands on guiding through the process. Forget Pars, models etc., the Pars are within the program and they are current. More current than any other devised by man.

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Old 03-14-2021, 01:15 PM   #8
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The "Lone E" is always dangerous..........lol
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Old 03-15-2021, 06:57 AM   #9
Mitch44
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Bradshaw always said;" The race starts at the gate, not the first call." This is very true, particularity when you have a race with multiple FTL (for the lead) horses.

The Yellow Manual also contained the Match UP. That early embryo of the match up wasn't that easily recognizable and crude or child's play to the sophisticated Match Up version in todays RDSS.

The Yellow Manual was the forerunner to all that followed and still is valid today, some parts aren't valid today just like some parts of various Follow Ups were superseded when later proven to be worthless. The essential stuff in "Old Yellow" is the Holy Grail for all that followed and the foundation in RDSS and the Match UP today.

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