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Old 04-24-2021, 12:02 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
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The Derby could be very contentious this year

Using The Hat's Marathon Method there are several contenders in this year's Kentucky Derby.

Almost all of these lines are taken from last out, graded stakes performances.

Essential Quality ran 2-2-2-1 in 135.4 and from farther off the pace in an earlier race, 4-3-1-1 in 135.6 at the mile split.

Hot Rod Charlie ran 2-1-1-1 in 136.1 and earlier ran 7-32-2 in 135.6

Known Agenda has run 5-4-1-1 in 136.3

Rock Your World has run 1-1-1-1 in 136.1

Medina Spirit has run 3-3-1-1 in 136.1

Midnight Bourbon has run 2-2-2-2 in 136.1

Highly Motivated has run 1-1-1-2 in 135.4

Soup and Sandwich has run 1-1-2-2 in 136.3

That is eight candidates that can run on or near the lead at the mile mark and finish decently.

Recall from previous years that Marathon races (10 or more furlongs, usually) are won by horses on or close to the lead at the mile mark very often. Page back to previous year's info to see how many winners DIDNT come from that close up. You will be amazed.
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Old 04-24-2021, 12:08 PM   #2
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Posted a couple of years back:

"When this info was first posted in 2007 all 31 of the past Santa Anita Handicaps [run at 10 furlongs BTW] had been won by horses either first or 2nd at the stretch call. Since that time all 9 subsequent winners have been first or 2nd at the 9f/stretch call and 7 out of 9 were within 0.50 lengths of the lead at the mile call. One winner was 4th by 8 and the other was 6th by 4 lengths.

For the Derby, the original info was 41 out of 44 1st or 2nd at stretch call. Since then 7 of 8 were 1st or 2nd at the stretch call, one was 3rd by 1.5 Lengths (update info 48/52).

I was not the instigator of the 41/44 info, but I did go back as far as equibase allowed. In the last 24 Derbys (back to 1991) 20/24 were within 4.5 lengths at the mile call; 22/24 were either 1st or 2nd at the 9f/stretch call (or within 1.5 lengths). Giacomo and Grindstone were 6th, 2.75 and 4th by 3.5 lengths respectively, at their stretch calls.

Moral of the story is, if you are not on or near lead or in the process of passing a lot of horses you probably will not win the Derby. Deep closers from races with slow mile times are candidates for other than win."
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Old 04-24-2021, 02:55 PM   #3
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Good

Stuff Bill, thanks


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Old 04-24-2021, 04:55 PM   #4
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Great info Bill.


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Old 05-01-2021, 07:16 AM   #5
Jimmy R
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Awesome tutorial Mr. Bill! Thank you!!
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Old 05-01-2021, 08:25 AM   #6
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Nice one Bill
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Old 05-01-2021, 08:33 AM   #7
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Regards the pace today, with so many that like to press, would you think they may change their strategy for such a big race, so they don't exert too much energy so they last out longer.
Only asking as still learning how to figure out the pace for such a high profile race, and what it can do for breeding fees.
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Old 05-01-2021, 09:12 AM   #8
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I don't think so, it pretty hard to change a horses style. But most important, changes aren't made if they have been successful in the $3,000,000 Ky. Derby.


Those making changes will be the ones that haven't been that successful and a trainer is still trying to figure the horse out, good trainers by now know their horse.


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Old 05-01-2021, 10:29 AM   #9
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Okay thanks Mitch44
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Old 05-01-2021, 05:15 PM   #10
Bill Lyster
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Okay, I have delayed long enough.

I like the 1, 9, and 14 to win.
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