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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

 
 
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Old 03-13-2018, 11:49 AM   #8
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Weight is not a main handicapping factor.


When I joined Sartin around 1989 or 1990 one had to write a letter to be accepted. No one really knew what the Doc was looking for in that letter. Was it a psychological
profile? At the time I was a big fan of Ray Toulbot and his pace handicapping and stated so. Also of American Turf Monthly whom he wrote for. Actually at the time there were perhaps only two big racing magazines. Maybe that's why I was accepted.


By having read that magazine for many years I specifically remember reading about the winning ability of high weight horses. In conversations with LT1 he also remembers this. Were talking at least back in the 70's or so. LT1 thinks the 80's. Whenever its ancient.


So in all racing the system is based on weight. Essentially the more a horse wins the more weight it carries. Accept now a days they seldom burden a horse with weights as they did back the. Additionally there were a lot more Starter Hcp. races.


While this may be great for contenders, final decisions still have to be made because many times your left with several horses. Two handicappers may choose a different horse or two difference horses if a two horse better.

As with any separation of contenders there are questions that have to be answered. Is this high weight still the same horse that has earned that high weight? Is he running today on the same surface and distance? Does one of the lower high weights show significant improvement recently? I remember in the BC Classic I completely downgraded the best horse and favorite of Bob Baffert who I believed was over the top, it ended up out of the money. However it took a ton of money.(Arrogate) Additionally they don't pay as good as everyone sees the same thing and their often made the favorite.


Beware of betting a horse just because its the high weight.


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 03-13-2018 at 11:58 AM.
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