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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 06-19-2018, 11:09 AM   #1
stugots119
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Race selection

What is the minimum comparable distance/conditions do you require per race?? For example I did a 6 F sprint race over the weekend that had 11 horses entered. Out of the 11 only 6 had a comparable distance and ran 90 days or less. The other 5 were either over 90 days or only ran route races 8f.
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Old 06-19-2018, 11:53 AM   #2
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I don't worry about a comparable distance so much because RDSS will extract from longer lines chosen and project from shorter lines chosen. If I make a horse a contender comparable is unimportant to me. You have to use what you have.

Now when choosing pace lines I attempt to stay within 1/2 F of todays distance and no more than 1 F.

I don't automatically throw out horses that haven't raced within 90 days. Like anything these horses are not all equal just because they haven't raced within 90 days. While the stat for 90 day horses is poor it must be put into context because their all not created equal or the same and you'll go broke playing them all. That can be said of any stat such as 14 day horses, favorites, last out winners in that they are not all created equal or the same. Its up to the player to decide, the problem with stats is that they consider all or throw them all into the same basket. They are not all the same. Or within any stat are they all the same. Races are a similar example, in that all 6 F races are not the same. I.e. If 6F races were additionally broken down by Surface, class track etc. the overall stat for 6 F races change. Ditto or same with favorites, Gr 1 horses win more that the average stat of say 33 % for favorites. That 33% lump in the best with the worst or all those Never won 2 lifetime etc. Like all favorites percentages and stats tend to lump the worst in with the best and create unreliable stats. Its up to the player to do research in order to garner the nuggets that the public doesn't have and whom believe in basic plain stats that the racing game has been spewing out for years.

Sartin once said that after a horse is off 30 days it makes no difference if he was off 90 days. He is correct in that the form cycle is within a 30 day cycle.
Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 06-19-2018 at 11:57 AM.
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Old 06-19-2018, 01:01 PM   #3
Bill V.
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Glad

hello stugots

If you can remember the track and race I can put up the PP's
I can then go thru the horses and show you my criteria.

Basically, my blanket start point for contenders ( win only )
I look for horses with Plus + pace lines ( color-coded in RDSS)
Some other positives are the horses with + pacelines further down in their PP's
particularly from a
Comparable distance,
Comparable surface
If a horse is coming in with a
20/1 ML
or a very bad win to race percentage
I always marked them as a not for win contender.

Layoffs can be an eliminator.

If off >60 days, It must have good workouts and has shown at least a (+)
at the distance after a 60-day or longer layoff.

If a horse is coming in after a 90-day long layoff.
at any of my 3 main tracks*, I mark them as non-win contenders
but I will watch the tote board and the morning line.

* = SoCal, Parx, NYRA

Here are two horses coming out of the same race
It is race 9 today at Parx

This is a contender

Name:  good Show.PNG
Views: 227
Size:  113.1 KB


This is a noncontender

Name:  Not a good show.PNG
Views: 224
Size:  110.5 KB

Last edited by Bill V.; 06-19-2018 at 01:08 PM. Reason: attachment entered incorrectly
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Old 06-19-2018, 01:35 PM   #4
stugots119
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Bill, It was the 10th race at Santa Anita on Sunday, June 17th, 2018.
6.5 Furlongs
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Old 06-19-2018, 01:49 PM   #5
Bill V.
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Thanks

Thanks I will check in after Parx and Doc appointment

Name:  Pretty nurse.PNG
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Old 06-19-2018, 01:59 PM   #6
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I agree with Mitch. I do not automatically throw out a horse because it hasn't raced in 90 days or has a morning line of 20-1 etc. I am aware of all the percentages against these types of horses winning, however, to me each race is different and must be approached that way. If one of these types survives
my initial contender selection process it stays and I will evaluate it further. Doc only had 1 thing that he would call a "rule" and that was not to rate a horse off of a zero race. Anything else is fair game. If I don't have a comparable line for a contender I will project or extract as needed keeping in mind that projecting is far more dangerous then extracting. As Doc said on his 1998 1 on 1 videos, when he went away from the visual matchup and strongly endorsed the best of the last 3 concept, the reality of racing had changed. It continues to change today and we must adjust accordingly.
Tim
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Old 06-19-2018, 04:38 PM   #7
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Hello Tim

I have mostly races from Parx NYRA and Socal

I will look and see if i can get some kind of a percentage or horses that
still won the race even though they were 20/1 on the morning line
and had a + paceline or non zero as you call them
At Socal and NYRA i figure this to be a very low number

Am I reading your post correctly ?

Thanks

Best skill
Bill

PS I agree with Doc's views about trainer stats and man made tout services. I ignore them, I may view them after each meet but I never base a wager decision on them ' "the horse runs the race" The competent trainer places his stock in the best positions for it to succeed.

The horses pace lines are what I use to compare and judge racehorses
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Old 06-19-2018, 06:38 PM   #8
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Bill I'm aware of the stats which generally make these types of horses poor win bets, however,
I take each race as it comes. I don't automatically toss a horse. I have my contender selection process and if 1 of these types survives the initial round it stays until I toss it for other handicapping reasons. This doesn't mean the horse will be a win bet but it could fill the underneath positions. I'm also aware of other approaches used by members but I prefer mine which have served me well over the years.
Tim
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Last edited by Lt1; 06-19-2018 at 06:43 PM.
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Old 06-19-2018, 07:29 PM   #9
Bill V.
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So

Hi Tim

Thanks for clearing that up
I would gather this for the opening poster John,

20/1 M /L horses are poor win prospects ,
But they very well can place or show.

Also any rule or guideline is 100 percent track / distance/ surface / class specific

A tidbit from Doc`s One on One video seminar,Know Thy Track
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Old 06-19-2018, 09:19 PM   #10
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Bill the reason I don't automatically throw out a horse is due to the fact that in my 28yrs with the group and my many dealings with Doc,Jimmy, and numerous other teaching members I don't recall ever hearing about an automatic toss. Maybe I missed it. I will point out that more horses off 90 days or more make my initial cut then do the 20-1 group which makes sense since horses today are coddled so much. Even the cheaper horses don't run as many times a year as they use to.
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