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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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07-04-2020, 12:21 PM | #1 |
Grade 3
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Edmonton, Canada
Posts: 71
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Comparable Lines
If a horse does not have a comparable line does a handicapper put more value on a line with the right surface or length of the race or having a positive finish.
Or just make the horse a non contender. |
07-04-2020, 12:40 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I would place more emphasis on distance,than surface. Many times one is forced to use what is there in the PP's.
If you can show a screen shot I would tell you the line I would use. Jimmy "The Hat" Bradshaw always said ;" You must use what you have." Mitch44 |
07-04-2020, 01:31 PM | #3 |
Grade 3
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Edmonton, Canada
Posts: 71
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07-04-2020, 02:14 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I would use line #1. For me Turf and poly are interchangeable. Besides being closes to todays distance line # 1 has the best Preceptor rating with a 0.0( Low is best)
Good luck, Mitch44 |
07-04-2020, 02:41 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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I respectively disagree:
I would use the line from Dec 8, 2019. It is a line from the same track and same surface. 7f is a hybrid distance, not really a sprint, not really a route, so I would be more inclined to match up the surface and track rather than use an 8f race at a different surface AND a different track. Furthermore, this horse has been working out well since its last race on the artificial surface. And using the Dec 8 line, this horse will (properly) show the best late kick of the bunch, and should be considered a longshot contender at a 12-1 ML. Richard |
07-04-2020, 02:56 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Line #3. Same track, 2nd Perceptor, horse at least made a move against that pace, whereas he was just sucked along at the back of that last Tampa race at a pace too fast for it: it lost ground every call and was 9th and 10th out of a 10 horse field.
Or Line #2, same difference, same reason as line 3 only worse. Line #3 shows it can handle a faster pace than line 2 and maturity as a 3YO might mean it can improve its general speed and pace. It still disburses its energy Late so there's that, unless it loses touch with the field of runners who ALL have set or closed against faster paces than this fellow. It doesn't matter what line you use: try them all! It ranks worse than every other horse on most metrics. Not a Win contender in today's restricted 3YO Stakes race, perhaps in the money. IMO Good luck! Ted
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07-04-2020, 03:15 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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fwiw, how I handicap this race:
r7: As 4,6,7, Bs 9, Cs 2,5,8, Xs 1,3: 4 should try to take control of the early pace, 7 has hot trainer/jockey combo, 6 has hot jock, 9 has hot jock and has been working well, 5 will be closing late. Might get a price for a win bet on the 4, otherwise will have to combine the As with others in verticals to create +EV. Good Luck Richard |
07-04-2020, 04:40 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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Results:
Chalk prevails: A(6)-C(2), $1 ex pays $12.55 |
07-04-2020, 09:21 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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sdahl:
Don't be confused by these answers as each person develops their own techniques for picking lines. One way to determine this is to pick the lines for your other horses and then return to this horse and take turns on picking a line and see which one the computer / program thinks is the best. I do this on really tough close calls and use the rating on BLBL to determine the line it likes. By doing this you use the power of the program which is smarter than us and the use of the computer to solve this problem. In looking at this horse with Bris PP's as I did not download this card to RDSS the #5 horse was ranked 9th on BPP therefore I would have tossed him as a non-contender. The program works more efficiently when only true contenders are selected for the program. Mitch44 |
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