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Old 02-06-2019, 11:12 PM   #1
Grade 3
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 66
Workouts and Bullet Works

One reader of my book asked if i considered bullet workouts when handicapping maiden races. This was in reference to GP race7 on 2-2-19. I didn't specifically refer to that race but to the 1st and 3rd races on that card. Here was my response:
I was taught NOT to look at the times of the workouts BUT at the FREQUENCY of the workouts by one of my mentors DICK
MITCHELL. Of the number of people who look at workouts, 95% of them look at it wrong(w/o time). You go figure out the track
variance on the day the horse worked, if the horse was ridden by an exercise rider or a jockey, or which jockey, or even if the
clocker was looking at the right horse! Glad you brought this up. Even Mitchell tried to use par times in his measurements. Too risky
for my money.
Now look at the Frequency Method. Mitchell tried to measure the frequency in a 20 day period:75% rate for winners, 90%-100% for
maidens. I look at frequency differently( my version of kicking it up a notch). Look at the winner of the 1st race(#12). Since it's a
maiden race, start at the beginning. THIS HORSE WAS WORKING OUT EVERY 7 DAYS up until 10/20, then waited 19 days until his
debut on 11/8( no published works). Next goes 28 days without a published work in a route race,had trouble on far turn, so we just
can't tell if he would've closed in the last quarter mile. DO YOU REALLY THINK THIS HORSE WAS NOT WORKING OUT AT A FARM
SOMEWHERE! Now horse goes 43 days BUT has a w/o 9 days before race in which he showed signs of life(ran closer to pace while
going 3 wide). Going wide is a sign of rounding into form, the wider the better. Now waits 15 days for a spot and we have a bingo
here: $61.80,$27.40,$16.20.
Now look at the #11. 12,8,10,5(race on 11/16); 14,8,13,7(race on 12/28);14 days no works,then race with class drop(ran 3rd); 11days
(w/o),9 days(race on 2/2) runs 2nd with a step up in class. This horse was wide in all 3 of his races too.

In GP3 we're dealing with Winners of 2 races or nw3l. All of the horses except for the winner have more than 10 races so you adhere
to the Howard Sartin adage "if you don't have all the information,use the information you have". The winner, who was the chalk and
rightly so, had only 9 races and so we can see his first race but not all of his works leading to that race. I know that wasn't your
question but let's analyze him anyhow. I don't see any works before his first 2 races so we can surmise they weren't trying with him
right away. His prior works before 3rd start were as follows:4,7,11,7 and zero(yes the horse worked out the day of the race). Horse is
shelved for 5 months and imagine that another long layoff winner on the GRASS! Lets see his w/o pattern leading up to that
race:7,7,oops 49,29,7,7 and then nothing for 58 days prior to his maiden win. My guess is the horse had a minor training mishap
and then was worked "DOWN ON JUNIOR'S FARM"(like the song). Then it looks like what ever ailed him earlier returned (no works
since maiden win), then another 4 1/2 month rest and boom-wins again without published works but by now we know they work
him privately. Next gets stepped up in class next 2 starts and then takes the plunge and wins again without published works-
REALLY! So now you know Michael Maker hides his workouts.
But the 2nd horse, #10,look at his workout pattern: 7,7,5 and then runs way over his head-but shows speed. Next works 15 days
later then 5 more days and races with drop down in class, this time shows speed (competitive) to the 2nd call then 4 lengths in the
stretch. Next works 9,7 and then a race 8 days later with a big class drop and again up close to the 2nd call then 4 lengths back in
the stretch. Now shows 2 BULLET works 13,then 9 and comes back 5 days later, same class BUT W/O SHADES. I don't know why
he was 20\1 on m/l but those 2 5f works should signal a major improvement. Everyone sees the dots and bets the horsey down to
6\1. The odds maker did you a favor because if he would've been 10\1 m/l, he might have gone off at 9/5.
P.S. The book sold out on E-bay. If anyone is interested in buying my book "HORSE RACING DYNAMICS: HOW TO MASTER MAIDEN RACES - A BLUEPRINT FOR SUCCESS" just send $24.95 to nbroat@yahoo.com or mrhandicapper@aol.com via PayPal along with your email address, and i will send you the book + the 5 extra races referenced in the ad in .pdf format.

Last edited by omar; 02-06-2019 at 11:15 PM.
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