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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 10-21-2018, 12:52 PM   #1
lone speed
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Preview of 2018 BC Classic-mile and 1/4 Dirt

On the eve of Breeders Cup Pre-Entries:

These are the definite entries as determined by Breeder's Cup system:
Accelerate, Pavel, Diversify followed by those who garnered points: Bravazzo, McKinzie, Axelrod, and Lone Sailor.


The rest of the field which is limited to 14 entrants are to determined by the BC panel. ( One tough job...)

Possible entrants to be determined by BC panel:

West Coast, Catholic Boy, Mind Your Biscuits ( Might be pre-enter in 3 races ), Thunder Snow, Mendelssohn, Collected, Yoshida, Gunnevera, and Roaring Lion.
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Old 10-21-2018, 01:07 PM   #2
lone speed
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Favorite for the 2018 BC Classic

Accelerate will be the morning line favorite- multiple winner at the mile and 1/4 distance.

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PS: I forgot to list the "upset winner of the Jockey Gold cup" Discreet Lover as a possible BC Classic entrant.
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Old 10-21-2018, 01:20 PM   #3
lone speed
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possible "key race"

Here is the chart for the Jockey Gold Cup:

Look at those internal pace fractions ( even though race is run at Belmont race track )

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Old 10-26-2018, 11:56 PM   #4
lone speed
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Analyzing diversify's jockey club gold cup race with suburban

Before the field is set for the 2018 Breeder's Cup Classic and even though Diversify will not be in the race; I wanted to evaluate Diversify's losing race in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Diversify"s smashing win in the Suburban. Both races were run at Belmont race track.

Imho, I would like to comment that both effort were the same, even though the Jockey Club Gold Cup was a losing effort. The "Big" difference was that Mendelssohn forced Diversify to run a faster 4 Furlong split time in the Jockey Club Gold Cup race.

Diversify's huge effort in the Suburban race where he won by 6 1/2 L
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Diversify dueled with Mendelssohn and ran to the 4 Furlong markers 3 ticks faster than he had run in the Suburban.
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The pace fractions up close:
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Once again, according to Jim Bradshaw and Huey Mahl; since Diversify was forced to run 3 ticks faster at the first fraction at 4 furlongs; he should run 6 ticks slower at the end of the race.

Diversify's Suburban final winning time was 1:59 and 4 fifths.......

In the Jockey Club Gold Cup; Diversify crossed the finish line in 2:01 and 1 fifth.

6 ticks difference in final time between Diversify's winning race in the Suburban and Diversify's losing effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Diversify's two efforts were the same even though the final race outcome were different.

Pace Makes the Race.

Last edited by lone speed; 10-27-2018 at 12:01 AM. Reason: wording
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Old 10-27-2018, 02:00 AM   #5
lone speed
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Correction..

It's not easy typing and watching the World Series at the same time...

Diversify finished in 2:01 in the Jockey Gold Cup as Diversify was 5 lengths behind Discreet Lover's winning time of 1:59.99 or 2:00 flat.

Diversify's Suburban winning time was 1:59 and 4/5...

The difference between 2:01 and 1:59 and 4/5 is 6 fifths or 6 ticks.....
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Old 10-27-2018, 12:41 PM   #6
sureshotlink
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Jim Bradshaw & Huey Mahl, them guys were kind of a big deal...
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Old 10-28-2018, 11:05 AM   #7
lone speed
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sureshotlink View Post
Jim Bradshaw & Huey Mahl, them guys were kind of a big deal...

Yes, they were ahead of their times. "Visionaires"

Now, if we use the premise that Diversify ran two identical races in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Suburban races; what does that imply about the designated "Final Time" figures??? They don't figure!!! They do not reflect the "true performances" of the horse's energy exertion in the race.

According to final time purists, do they assign a lower "figure" for Diversify in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and say that he did not run his race and "Bounce"??????

This is the main argument that any speed figures that do not incorporate pace figures into their "speed figures" will not be "optimal".

How does a horse that runs 1:59 and 4 fifths in one race and 2:01 in another race - have two similar "energy performances"???

According to Huey Mahl: one sentence in his 41 or 42 page book, "The Race is Pace"-----"The early pace has a telescopic effect on the rest of the race"

Anyways, back to the Breeder's Cup Classic which should be a great contentious race with a quality field.

We have a multiple Grade I winner at the distance; a "versatile runner" from the Metropolitan Mile; and possibly "THREE" winners of the Dubai Derbies while one is also a Dubai World Cup winner and a multiple Group One winner from Europe.
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Old 10-28-2018, 11:10 AM   #8
lone speed
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an early look of the past performances from Bris:

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Old 10-28-2018, 11:12 AM   #9
lone speed
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Old 10-30-2018, 12:07 AM   #10
lone speed
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The possible pace horse of the Classic

It seems that Baffert's West Coast will set the early pace of Classic with Mendelssohn right behind his flank.

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Look at Yoshida's huge Hidden Move!!! This horse should stay on Turf; but the shrewd trainer Bill Mott decided that if turf horse, Catholic Boy can win the Travers, then his horse can strut his stuff on dirt.
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