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Old 09-11-2019, 08:32 PM   #1
rdiam
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Favorites at SAR and DMR 2019

According to CJ of TimeformUS:

At the recently concluded DMR meet, tote favorites won 38.4% with a 0.94 ROI

At the recently concluded SAR meet, tote favorites won 37.8% with a 0.95 ROI

Can make a lot of $ with these kind of stats with a rebate of 6% or more.

If you are not betting at an ADW that maximizes your rebate, you are making a costly mistake.

Richard
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Old 09-12-2019, 04:32 AM   #2
Bill V.
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Odds

Like anything involving odds or favorites, Saying a positive ROI would be possible or worthwhile, even with a rebate is tricky

It's easy to record the favorite after the race from a result chart.
However how often is a horse at 1 or 0 minutes to post the favorite
yet by the time the race is run when the late money comes in another horse
ends up as the favorite?

In reality, it is very hard to bet based on low odds horses because so much of the pool money comes in as the race is being run.
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Old 09-12-2019, 09:46 AM   #3
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That is why I spend more time looking at the willpays of doubles and pk-3s. That gives me a sense of whether the win odds are out of whack or not. For instance, one person two weeks ago on another forum complained about a horse that was dropped from 9/2 to 5/2 after the race started while the favorite was steady at 9/5. Yet, the willpays showed that the 9/2 horse was the favorite in the willpays of the dd and the pk-3. Thus the bettor ended up getting 5/2 when he should have expected 8/5 or 9/5. Even at 5/2 that is a huge edge.
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Last edited by gandalf380; 09-12-2019 at 09:48 AM. Reason: Clarification
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Old 09-12-2019, 01:29 PM   #4
Bill Lyster
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdiam View Post
According to CJ of TimeformUS:

At the recently concluded DMR meet, tote favorites won 38.4% with a 0.94 ROI

At the recently concluded SAR meet, tote favorites won 37.8% with a 0.95 ROI

Can make a lot of $ with these kind of stats with a rebate of 6% or more.

If you are not betting at an ADW that maximizes your rebate, you are making a costly mistake.

Richard
Hey Richard, I agree with you and further as cautioned by Gandolf's refinement, but isn't it true that most ADWs that offer significant rebates also require betting amounts that might be out of reach for most of the betting public?

Where can you get high rebates without having to bet even $100 per day?
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Old 09-12-2019, 07:47 PM   #5
rdiam
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In my experience, rebates are a function of a) dollar volume bet, b) type of bet (higher rebates where the track take is higher), and c) the specific track. My post above was two-fold:

1. If your are betting through an ADW, use the one which maximizes your rebate depending on your dollar volume

2. I agree it may be hard to get a 6%+ rebate on win bets on a small bankroll. But if you are only losing 5% betting favorites, it should not take much handicapping skill to overcome that vig to be profitable, even before rebates.

As an aside, Ted and I had a conversation at SAR about the usefulness of using rolling DD and P3 prices to estimate win odds on the current race. As we know, he is overwhelmed right now trying to make the tote system in RDSS work, but be assured it will be included in the tote analysis sometime down the road.

Richard
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Old 09-13-2019, 10:28 AM   #6
ScottB
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A friend of mine specialized in betting favorites. He had a system where he was able to detect true and false favorites.When he was able to detect a true favorite with an edge he used that with the exacta. He is the only guy I ever came across who made money dealing with favorites.

Simulcasting makes things tough to play favorites. This week I bet a 2-1 as they were loading into the gate. After I placed my bet it was 9/5. As the race went off and they were running the odds went to 6/5.

Betting on favorites for profit is a tough nut to crack.
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Old 09-13-2019, 10:41 AM   #7
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I agree with Bill in that any scheme of betting based on odds is now a days unpredictable. One doesn't know the true odds generally until the race is half over(sprints) because of the dump of all the simulcasting outlets money that doesn't come in till the gates open and than has to be factored into the pools.

The game forever changes and a perfect example is that Dr. Z actually beat the game however after writing a book and the proliferation of simulcasting the dutching of a race is no longer a precise endeavor.

These 38% favorites are nothing new and a stat that I don't find particularity earth shattering or some kind of revelation. They can even be higher with some tweaking. Some important information if one is looking for a key horse to a gimmick bet but not a key to the bank.

Ditto for the possible payoffs of DD etc. which I always consult after getting the first leg. The question than becomes am I correct ? Far too much emphasis is placed on odds today and the main thrust should be on analysis and winner getting. Odds from studies of Fabricand and Bender do have some validity of sorts even today as the stats haven't changed much at all in reference to the top 3 win percentage. Etc.

Favorites are still losing at least 60 % or from the above post or 61.6 % for DMR and 62.2 % for Sar. and the fact is we never and I repeat never know in what race that percentage will show up to destroy our bet. If the top 3 low odds horses or favorites were the answer,then the game would cease to exist.

Lastly as far as ADW's other things must be factored in to the equation. When I ask for my return or to cash out are they reliable? There are also other intangibles such as free past performances. With Bris that's a $3 saving and on days that I play multiple tracks even more. If I only bet $100 that's a 3% saving right there. I myself place more emphasis on the proven business model and demonstrated performance rather than jumping around at the latest best offer.

Mitch44
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Old 09-13-2019, 10:47 AM   #8
ScottB
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Mitch

Nice post. Good read.
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Old 09-13-2019, 03:57 PM   #9
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Hey Richard, I agree with you and further as cautioned by Gandolf's refinement, but isn't it true that most ADWs that offer significant rebates also require betting amounts that might be out of reach for most of the betting public?

Where can you get high rebates without having to bet even $100 per day?

Bill, sadly, as a California resident you can't get access to any rebates worth mentioning (maybe a couple of points max). If only you had a part-time residence in a 'good' state (or a friend who did) ...

In that case, or FYI, for others reading this - AmWager gives pretty good rebates unrelated to daily/monthly/annual betting handle (and better, if you bet more). Very few tracks with the Win rebate level Richard mentions, though some smaller ones. Vertical and horizontal rebates are better. If you have a method to break-even (more or less) and can analyse more than a few races per day, ANY amount of rebates can form the basis of a nice hobby or a profitable business (according to 'common wisdom'). The more you bet, the better rebates you can access.

That said - prudent use of Methodology tools, selectivity in choosing races/bets and attention to prices at bet-time (including singling or top-wheeling favourites, including Exactas, Doubles or other horizontals) - can produce a flat-bet profit anyway, at least for some. So, rebates can either bring you to profitability or ice the cake, depending on intention and skill level.

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