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01-01-2013, 01:04 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Goals for 2013
Now that its the new year and the RDSS contest is over
I have gone back to the 70's, The "Me" decade My goals for 2013 I will..... 1 bet only races were I fully understand the conditions 2. bet only races when I have 1 or 2 horses with a clear advantage in pace set up, acceptable odds, and rankings in the top 2 on my program, If I see a early advantage horse with poor readouts I will be that early horse 3 bet win only spliting my bet 60/40 4. I will bet very few races but work many races 5, I will keep records 6. I will focus on only a few tracks, and only on tracks like Parx that run year round I will not bet any exactas or trifectas I will not bet any race where I say "if my win bets don't win, this exacta will save me " The RDSS contest showed me how betting in volume is a killer and how betting under pressure or for action is a bankroll killer Wishing you all the best with your goals Bill |
01-01-2013, 02:02 PM | #2 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Quote:
We must make plans in order to succeed or we are doomed to fail.....Your resolutions are a great reality check and dependent on each person's personal goals and most importantly, Comfort Zone....... I remember reading in a follow up issue where Doc Sartin was talking to Barry Meadows in a race book. Meadows was watching a race where he had a vested interest.... Sartin initiated a conversation when Meadows raised his hand and stop the Doc in mid-sentence so Meadows can continue to watch the race that was running. I do not remember the exact amount of wager that Meadows made, but it was more than several thousands to win on the nose of a steed in a low-priced claiming race. Nowadays, this type of wager and the amount wagered would have a huge impact on the mutuel pool that one person would be lowering the win odds and not winning his fair odds. If one person is wagering at small tracks nowadays, it would not take much of a wager before one starts impacting the mutuel pools. Any form of Kelly betting or partial Kelly wagering could not be as effective at tracks where the mutuel pools are smaller than in the past. I remember when I was amazed that there were over $300,000 wagered in the win mutuel pool on a maiden Reckoner trained by Joe Manzi at Santa Anita. This amount was only for Reckoner in the win pool....Currently, we will only see these amounts on big racing days like the Breeder's Cup or on Derby days.....Wagering is so diluted with the myriad of wagering options and wagering pools. Great resolution..it sheds light on a big reality check....do we want to play the ponies or do we want to profit from our endeavors...It is a business, where we are the ones making the daily decisions on how we run our business. We must focus on our strengths and gradually improve on our weakness...(practice makes perfect) Each person has a different "modus operandi" and different levels of "comfort zone", but the general thesis is the same. We all want to profit from our endeavors but with a "plan of action". Thanks for the post, Bill Good skills to all and Happy New Year.... |
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01-01-2013, 06:37 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Bill,
Take this for what it's worth from someone that has been using conditions as a arsenol in has handicapping for over 40 years Use them as a tool not an end all be all. Distance and surface changes can be just as important. Jeff |
01-02-2013, 11:01 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
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Slippery Slope of New Years Resolutions:
1st Resolution: Go to the gym every day. 2nd: Feel guilty for not going. 3rd: Pie |
01-02-2013, 03:24 PM | #5 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
Happy new year Jeff, Lone Speed and David Things went very well on day 1 I didn't want it to be a resolution because As David aludes to they often don't last I made it my goal ... A goal is something to strive for and with hard work and my stuborn ways hopefully I will get there Jeff I think understanding the conditions will help me with my pace line and contender selections One of Doc's guidelines is to let a horses APV determin how far back you go for a line Understanding the conditions of the race will help me make calls on excusing the last race and moving to the next comparable line Last edited by Bill V.; 01-02-2013 at 03:29 PM. |
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01-02-2013, 03:49 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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good luck with it
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01-02-2013, 06:02 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Woodbine
Posts: 761
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1 - Win the PAIHL contest
2 - Go on a date with Rosario Dawson 3 - Play defence for the Leafs 4 - Introduce Dalton McGuinty to the back side of a horse 5 - Watch Uncaptured win the Derby There are others i could mention but they are unrealistic |
01-03-2013, 09:47 AM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,654
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