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Old 05-17-2015, 09:22 AM   #1
Fairchild
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Supp. LS

I am not certain how to use this forum so I apologize if this post is in the wrong place. My question is What are the four lines next to the Supp. LS they start with P T T T ?
Thanks for the answer in advance
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Old 05-17-2015, 03:17 PM   #2
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Supp. LS?

I really want anyone to explain better the term 'Supp. LS'
I made a Google custom search, The "LS" or line score in which screen of RDSS
can I find it and what is the meaning of it, its purpose, etc.

Thanking you in advance.

DSL
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Old 05-17-2015, 04:18 PM   #3
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this page will give you an idea
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5609
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Old 05-17-2015, 05:57 PM   #4
Fairchild
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Thanks

I looked at that Glossary before and it is useful but it doesn't answer my question. So much has changed from what is found in the various manuals and examples; it is really difficult to determine what each symbol means. For a person like myself, who only began studying the Sartin Meth. 1 month ago, it is difficult to determine how the various measurements relate to each other so I can rate the horse. So far I have found that the BL/BL has the horses rated very well using the pacelines that either I or the program has chosen; I just wish I could get a mutual higher then $6.00.
Again Thanks
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Old 05-17-2015, 08:35 PM   #5
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Deeper BL/BL will bring higher mutuals

With that in your usual array of loses will come.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fairchild View Post
I looked at that Glossary before and it is useful but it doesn't answer my question. So much has changed from what is found in the various manuals and examples; it is really difficult to determine what each symbol means. For a person like myself, who only began studying the Sartin Meth. 1 month ago, it is difficult to determine how the various measurements relate to each other so I can rate the horse. So far I have found that the BL/BL has the horses rated very well using the pacelines that either I or the program has chosen; I just wish I could get a mutual higher then $6.00.
Again Thanks
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Old 05-17-2015, 09:19 PM   #6
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Thanks to Fairchild, Rverge, dlivery

Quote:
Originally Posted by dlivery View Post
With that in your usual array of loses will come.
Thank you Fairchild for bring up this real & interesting part of RDSS.

OK - Rverge, I like the page http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread. php? t=5609 to help out new RDSS users, this Updated Glossary put out by Bill V, it really starting to give an idea.
So, went to Google Site Search, typed in Supp. LS, and I'm starting to read the threads related to 'Supp. LS'. So far, I'm trying to understand the thread with RichieP. at http://paceandcap.com/forums/archive...php?t-207.html

So, I still don't have the answers on this important topic 'Supp. LS'




T
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Old 05-17-2015, 11:34 PM   #7
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Line score

The 4 factors on the RDSS2 sup line score are variations and or Ted's "home brew" of the 4 basic
Sartin supplementary factors.

Sartin Pace Number , Fx - which is the same as the FX on the primary factors Entropy and Total Pace Potential

The factors you see on RDSS2 are comparable,to what was on Sartin programs like Val4.
Ted just "rolled his own"on RDSS with the names and took away the repeated FX
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Old 05-18-2015, 09:36 AM   #8
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Thank you Bill V.

Last night was too late at 11:34 PM (CDT) to answer you; but, Thank you Bill V. for sending the picture on line score. This gives all of us the answers we've been looking for in BOTTOM LINE - BETTING LINE.

Looking now for more information on these components: EPR, LPR, CPR, TT, so on .

Thank you again,

DSL
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Old 05-18-2015, 12:41 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
The 4 factors on the RDSS2 sup line score are variations and or Ted's "home brew" of the 4 basic
Sartin supplementary factors.

Sartin Pace Number , Fx - which is the same as the FX on the primary factors Entropy and Total Pace Potential

The factors you see on RDSS2 are comparable,to what was on Sartin programs like Val4.
Ted just "rolled his own"on RDSS with the names and took away the repeated FX
Attachment 38947
Thanks Bill.

The Supplementary Line Score, and component factors are a display of important factors other than the Primary Factors which are displayed on the left-side.

Some nuances: the Supp LS ranks (and the hidden Supplementary line score totals which are not shown) ARE INDEED the same sum of ranked factors as in Validator (SPN, FX, Entropy Σ, TS, TPP), so this persists from Validator. I have just removed unnecessary or redundant factor readouts from the actual display: FX (redundant), SPN, Entropy Σ (old, unnecessary, redundant). But the Supp LS is created from those same highlighted factors as shown on Bill's copy of a Validator screen. (You can prove this by finding those factor ranks, including the old SPN and Entropy, in the Excel export model file, then summing then ranking them = Supplementary Line Score ranks). Please see numerous discussions on WHY SPN and Entropy factors are redundant to other factors (use Google P&C Site Search), and thus omitted from the screen.

In the same space occupied by them (and the redundant FX), I added newer factors: TS+F3 (True Speed + Fraction 3, first appearing in 'public' in Speculator) and PF3 (Projected Fraction 3, long discussed in Sartin writings and elaborated on clearly by Michael Pizzolla in Handicapping Magic, named there as Projected Power Fraction PPF. I don't have Michael's 'flare for labeling', so I called it what it is: Fraction 3 energy with beaten lengths at the 2nd call added back in).

Thus, showing in the Supplementary Factors section:

PF3 - Projected Fraction 3 (as described above)
TS+F3 - True Speed (TS) + Fraction 3 (F3) - as shown on the Segments screen, right hand panel (average of the TS and F3, i.e. Final time with extra weighting given to strength in F3)
TS - True Speed (identical to Adjusted Speed Rating, thus a Final Time only velocity measurement)
TPP - Total Pace Potential, a fairly complicated summation (sort of) of E/ep and L/ep = Early Energy Potential and Late Energy Potential (taken from the Energy screen). This is an analogue/improvement? on the older Total Pace Ratings (EPR+LPR=CPR or TPR, as documented in the early Methodology work Pace Makes the Race, and shown on the TPR+E/L screen). Both of these systems measure the relative amount of Early versus Late energy, their differential and the balance of each.

Lastly in that Supp Section is the Supp LS, as described above.

Ultimately, all these individual factors and the Supp LS can be modeled (if you like) using the existing Excel export tools to see if any particular factors give any track, surface, distance advantage.

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The BL/BL screen is a Summary screen of factors drawn from all the other screens. Perhaps some folks get value from the Supplementary and Fractals section, but my 'eye' and analysis stops when I reach the central section containing BL, VDC, CSR (and NewPace if you have it).

Fairchild, hope that is a help! If you want to know more about the derivation of any of these factors beyond described briefly above, please start with the Google Site Search tool, then scan the Follow Ups. Then, if you still want to know even further, feel free to start a discussion.

best,

Ted
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Old 05-18-2015, 01:11 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fairchild View Post
I looked at that Glossary before and it is useful but it doesn't answer my question. So much has changed from what is found in the various manuals and examples; it is really difficult to determine what each symbol means. For a person like myself, who only began studying the Sartin Meth. 1 month ago, it is difficult to determine how the various measurements relate to each other so I can rate the horse. So far I have found that the BL/BL has the horses rated very well using the pacelines that either I or the program has chosen; I just wish I could get a mutual higher then $6.00.
Again Thanks
Fairchild, more winners pay $6.00 than they used to! But if they are the betting favourite, they still win, variably, at rates between 33% to 40%, which is the same as saying that they lose 60-66% of the time. It is not the horse's fault, or the software's (LOL) that good horses are more visible and bet-worthy to the public (than they used to be). However, you DO want such horses to appear on top of your betting line. Also however, you want to give close examination to those other horses in your Top 3 Odds Line who will commensurately go off at much more bettable odds (or reveal a great Place and/or Exacta or other vertical bet). On purpose, the BLBL formula compresses the difference between the Top 3 horses to raise the possibility of more closely examining those possibly 'sketchier' looking horses. And always be on the lookout for a horse further down the Odds Line (say 3rd or 4th) with an out-of-order VDC ranking (e.g. BL ranked 3 or 4 and VDC ranked 1).

The Sartin Methodology (at least as expounded by Doc Sartin), is typically a multi-horse betting strategy (for Win) and this concept is supported by the philosophy behind the BLBL screen and Odds Line. Thus, (and always presuming they are a Contender to run their race today and NOT seriously disadvantaged by other Matchup considerations) consider betting your Top ranked horse and the longer odds of one of your other Top 3. This has the effect of increasing your hit rate at the expense of net mutuel, but also preserves emotional equanimity and allows for MORE BETS. You will be surprised at how many scenarios you find where the Top ranked horse is 2-1 or 9/5 and the 3rd ranked horse is 3-1 or 7/2 (or much more, if the favourite approaches EVEN or less, or if you skip the favourite) where your 2nd horse wins paying sufficient to still have made such a bet. Even more - Exactas are often mis-priced and that same 9/5 and 3-1 combo comes back at $18-22 or so for a 2 horse box, or $18-$4=14 to 4 or 7/2 or 3.5 to 1.

Even a 2-horse bet like EVEN Odds and a 6-1 or higher 2nd horse has merit in the form of a HEDGE: the EVEN odds horse is your hedge and gets you into the game (recoups your wager if it wins) while you solidly aim for the 2nd horse. So often we PASS such a scenario because the favourite looks solid (anybody remember this year's Charlestown Classic and Shared Belief ...). But the next best horse is also solid, and discounted (= Moreno ). Just one of many possibilities in multi-horse wagering, as are Win-Place bets (single horse, multi-pool wagering = 2 chances to cash)

So, the BLBL layout and concept is to support 'multi-interest' wagering (in single-race pools) and to encourage you to look a little deeper than the obvious top ranked horses. Of course, top horses often rank on top and win, and pay modestly. So, you'd better have a decent enough hit rate for a diet including these. Though - when a betting favourite IS NOT solidly on top of your Odds Line (again, and a true Contender and not disadvantaged by an Early or Late Matchup analysis) - that is, it has some defects: THEN is when you may gain extra confidence to demote such a horse from Win to Secondary status and reap the better resulting odds on your remaining Contenders.

Hope that is a helpful perspective!

Ted
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